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Last week was my second time writing the Sleeper prop picks for Thursday Night Football. After doing the Thursday Night previews for the last three years, this article fits like a glove. Even after a down week last week, we are 5-3 on our Thursday props!
Last week, we dropped two prop articles and finished 3-6 on our selections, building on our 33-24 across all articles this season. This week, we have an incredible matchup between two AFC North teams that are coming off of losses. The Bengals head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as they try and dig themselves out of the bottom of the division.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
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Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
I find myself drawn to Andrews’ over-props a lot this season. Despite having a very respectable season, his props always seem lower than I expect.
This week, in one of the best TE matchups, his line is still only 53.5 yards. The Bengals are allowing the ninth-most yards and tied for the third-most touchdowns per game to the TE position. Although the Bengals have been solid against Andrews in the past, this line is set at a mark I’d gladly take.
PS: I have more confidence in his reception total; however, 4.5 receptions are high considering he has only passed that four times this season. If you can find an alternate line of 3.5, I would be all over it.
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Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
There is an argument to be made that a healthy Joe Burrow is the best QB in the NFL. As a Bengals fan, I am definitely biased; however, his stats since Week 5 have been excellent. Despite the loss last week, Burrow brought this team back and hit Tyler Boyd in the hands for what could have been the game-winning touchdown.
Anyway, we are on to the next game, which happens to be a MASSIVE divisional game on the road. Considering the Ravens' elite rushing attack matches perfectly with the Bengals' struggling run defense, Burrow will need to throw to stay in this game.
According to Lineups.com, the Ravens have yet to allow a rushing touchdown to the RB position. As a result, Burrow will need to find his weapons and should pass for at least two touchdowns to give the Bengals a chance at winning. Plus, Burrow has passed for two or more touchdowns in six of his nine games this season (including his injured games).
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Unlike the Ravens, the Bengals' run defense is not very strong. In particular, the Bengals are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards to the QB position and over 90 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
Additionally, this Ravens team has found their goal-line back in Gus Edwards, who has seven rushing touchdowns in his last four games. Considering Lamar has only passed for over 1.5 touchdowns three times this season, I really like this line in the context of a tight divisional game.
Justin Tucker (K, BAL)
Over 1.5 Made Field Goals
It wouldn’t be a Thursday night prop article of mine without a kicker prop. Last week, I selected Tucker in my Sunday props article, and I will look to repeat that success on Thursday. For whatever reason, field goals have been in abundance on TNF.
In a divisional duel with two evenly matched teams, I think both coaches will look to score points whenever they get the opportunity. As a result, some conservative playcalling should favor both kickers to have multiple field goals this week.
Bengals +3.5
I’m going to call an audible here and take a shot at the spread. Once again, I am a Bengals fan, so feel free to call my bias or fade this selection. However, the fact that this line is over a flat 3.0 points is really nice.
As I’ve mentioned before, these divisional games are always tight. When both of these teams are coming off tough losses, there is no way either MVP-level QB will let this game get out of hand.
It’s never a bad idea to take the plus points in divisional matchups, and I think this game will be no different. Buckle your seatbelts, because we have an absolute banger of a game this Thursday.
Additional Notes:
At the time of writing this, Sleeper has yet to release a line for Evan McPherson's Field Goals and Ja’Marr Chase's receptions. Mirroring my Justin Tucker analysis, I would be interested in McPherson's over 1.5 made field goals when it is available.
I also am interested in whatever line is set for Chase receptions. If it’s set at 6.5 receptions or lower, I would recommend that selection. Although the Ravens have found success limiting Chase in the past, coming off a home loss I think Burrow will be dialed in. As a result, I have a good feeling that Chase will be looked at frequently all game.
Thanks for reading. Check out my prop picks for the Sunday games later this week!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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