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Our Sleeper.com NFL DFS prop picks - over/under props for Week 11 early slate. Ellis' favorite Sunday prop bets on Sleeper.com.
Last week I released two Sleeper prop picks articles. We ended up going 3-6 on our selections, building on our 33-24 record across all articles this season. This week I have five more sections for you!
This week we attack the early slate of games with my four favorite prop picks. We have a couple of big divisional matchups this week, including Steelers vs Browns, Seahawks vs Rams, and Jets vs. Bills.
My name is Ellis Johnson and I have been writing for RotoBaller for four years. You can catch my weekly Fantasy Pie Shop articles on RotoBaller (trust me, it’s as fun as it sounds). RotoBaller is coming out with weekly DFS plays and lots of great analysis with their DFS pass. Be sure to check it out as the team has been crushing it so far this year!
Editor's Note: Find sleeper picks, undervalued ADPs, and draft targets to help you dominate your fantasy football drafts. Try our free who to draft tool for personalized recommendations.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Over 80.5 total yards, Chargers @ Packers
I’m going back to the well with this one. Last week, selecting Jones’ over yards did not come through. However, it’s now been two straight weeks that a healthy Jones has commanded this backfield and is the focal point of this offense.
This week, the struggling Packers’ offense takes on a Chargers team that is coming off an electric shoot-out loss. The Packers’ defense has struggled as it is and now runs into the buzz-saw of Justin Herbert and company. I expect the Packers will be forced to move the ball, which means Aaron Jones will be heavily featured in both the passing and ground game.
Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)
Under 60.5 total yards, Steelers @ Browns
This week Najee Harris has seemingly taken a backseat to Jaylen Warren who is coming off his two highest carry totals of the season and back-to-back 80+ yard rushing games. However, Najee has still out-touched Warren in each of their last two games. Plus, he now faces a Browns defense that can completely stifle this limited Steelers offense. Considering this backfield is a timeshare, give me the option with the higher line to have fewer yards.
I expect this game will be very messy and hard to watch. With two teams known for their defense-facing mediocre QB play, it’s hard to see a path to success for any weapon, particularly a part-time player like Warren.
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Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Under 0.5 Touchdowns, Cowboys @ Panthers
I don’t usually make touchdown predictions in these articles (I save that for the Pie Shop), however, this line is wild. Sleeper is offering 1.8x your money for Pollard NOT to score.
Considering he hasn’t scored since Week One and has arguably been outplayed by his backfield-mate Rico Dowdle, this is a slam dunk. Of course, these are the props that always seem to trick you, as the Panthers are allowing the fifth-most rushing yards and second-most rushing TDs to the position.
However, this defense is no worse than a Giants team they blew out last week. In that game, everyone, and I mean everyone, scored a TD but Pollard. It’s at the point where I’ll happily take the 1.8x prop on an outcome we haven’t seen since Week One.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
Over 54.5 receiving yards, Cardinals @ Texans
What a breakout campaign this has been for McBride. After doing the bare minimum to start his career, Zach Ertz’s injury has opened the door for McBride to shine. With three of his last five games over four receptions and 60 yards, he is officially on the fantasy radar.
He faces a Texans team that has been in back-to-back high-scoring games. I expect that won’t change this week and both the Cardinals' and Texans' defenses don’t match the power of their respective offenses.
The Texans are allowing the second most yards to the TE position and allowed Tanner Hudson, Drew Sample, and Irv Smith Jr. to combine for nine receptions and 51 yards last week against the Bengals. McBride is well above all of those names and should have another successful week with Kyler Murray back under center.
Nick Folk (K, TEN)
Over 1.5 Made Field Goals
It wouldn’t be a prop article of mine if I didn’t have a kicker prop to ice the cake. I love picking these props as the gamescripts and kicking opportunities seem to be “easier” to predict.
This game against a divisional rival, who is coming off an embarrassing loss, is prime for both kickers. Specifically, the kicker of the underdog team, as they will be looking to score whenever they have the chance. Last week, Folk missed his first kick of the year and still managed to surpass 1.5 field goals.
I love this prop as he has surpassed this mark in every game but two. Folk is on fire and this offense should find enough success to get him in range often.
If you combine those that's 20x your money! Catch all the action at Sleeper.com and at RotoBaller for the best analysis!
Disclaimer: Please gamble responsibly. I am writing this as a thought-provoking guide that can hopefully help individuals make their own decisions.
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