RADIO
Justin Carter takes a look at five second-year running backs who struggled as rookies and explains why these RBs should remain off fantasy football radars again in 2021 as ADP busts.
Out of pretty much every NFL position, running back is the one where immediate success should be the most expected. It's a position with the shortest shelf life, so players need to prove themselves quickly.
So when a player's rookie year doesn't go well, that's a bad sign. And while some players will have a strong second year after a middling first season, it's never a good sign when someone is a non-entity in their rookie season.
Below, we'll be looking at five second-year running backs who didn't have great rookie campaigns and who I'm not expecting big things from in their second seasons.
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A.J. Dillon - Green Bay Packers
Dillon was poised to be a breakout candidate this offseason, but then the Packers went out and did something unexpected: signed Aaron Jones to a four-year, $48 million extension.
Jones' production merited him getting a nice deal somewhere, but there was a lot of chatter about him leaving Green Bay. (Right? It's been a long year, so I can't be positive that I'm remembering correctly.)
Jones is coming off a strong season, rushing 201 times for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns while also adding 47 catches for 355 yards and two touchdowns. His backup last season, Jamaal Williams, had 505 rushing yards and 236 receiving yards, while Dillon as the No. 3 back had 242 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards.
Dillon's lack of receiving upside last year is worrisome because we can't be sure that he'll be the guy who sees the field when Jones comes off.
I think Dillon's probably going to finish around where Williams did in terms of rushing yards, as the Packers are too smart to run Aaron Jones into the ground. But the lack of receiving upside -- and he only had 21 receptions in college, so this isn't just a one-year thing -- limits his upside enough that I'll opt to draft someone else around Dillon's ADP.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Assuming Leonard Fournette's lack of vaccination doesn't lead to him losing his roster spot to someone who can actually attend team meetings, Vaughn will enter 2021 as the fourth running back on this team, behind Fournette, Ronald Jones II, and Giovani Bernard.
I don't really think we need to say much here. Vaughn may have been a third-rounder last season, but after he finished his rookie year with 26 carries for 109 yards and five receptions, the Bucs brought in Giovani Bernard to further cloud Vaughn's path to snaps.
That's very obviously bad news for anyone who has Vaughn on any of their rosters and a clear reason not to draft him this season. His second NFL season could be even worse than his first.
Zack Moss - Buffalo Bills
There's a good chance that Moss has the best season of any running back in this article. In fact, I'd probably bet that he's going to be fantasy-relevant this season in a way that the other four running backs won't be.
But looking at our FFPC ADP, Moss is being drafted just outside of the top-100 right now, with an ADP right around guys like Damien Harris and David Johnson.
I just don't want to draft Moss there. The upside isn't there.
Moss's workout metrics have always stood out to me...in a bad way:
Running backs don't have to be fast. You can finish 41st in yards per touch if you can crank out some tough yards. And to be fair, Moss was seventh in yards created per touch last season, so there's some upside there.
But mostly, Moss is a plodder whose best chance for fantasy value -- red zone rushing attempts -- is impaired by the fact that his quarterback, Josh Allen, is the team's best rushing threat in the red zone. Moss had 30 red zone touches last year, which ranked 24th at his position, but he would have had a lot more if Allen hadn't had 24 rushing attempts in the red zone, with seven rushing touchdowns.
That's my issue with Moss: in the right role, he can be fine. But when a touchdown-dependent running back is having touchdowns vultured by a quarterback, his value takes a hit and his upside is heavily limited. Moss will be fine, but a former third-round pick having a ceiling a low-end RB2, with a more likely outcome being a middling RB3, is a disappointing result.
Darrynton Evans - Tennessee Titans
Nothing against Evans, but like with A.J. Dillon, his path to fantasy production is heavily blocked by the existence of a really good running back ahead of him.
But you can at least squint and see a path for snaps for Dillon. Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing attempts in each of the past two seasons. If he stays healthy again this season, I don't really see much room for Evans to get touches.
Last year, Evans had 14 rushing attempts and two receptions. But even if you assume he moves up the depth chart and takes on the Jeremy McNichols role from last season, McNichols had significantly less value than pretty much any No. 2 running back, as last season he had 47 carries for 204 yards and a touchdown.
Maybe Evans can do that? But you aren't drafting someone when their upside is 200 yards and a touchdown.
La'Mical Perine - New York Jets
The Jets' backfield situation might be the weirdest in the entire NFL.
The team brought in Tevin Coleman this offseason, but there's been virtually zero discussion of Coleman, or of Ty Johnson or Josh Adams. Everyone has been focused on Perine and on rookie Michael Carter.
Perine played 10 games last year. He had 64 carries for 232 yards and two touchdowns, plus added 11 catches for 63 yards. The Jets' backfield was a mess and Perine didn't get a ton of opportunities, with just one game with double-digit carries. He rushed for four yards per carry just twice, and injuries and a trip to the COVID-19 List limited him to one game after Week 10.
So while a lot of people are penciling Perine in as the starter, his 2020 numbers don't scream "THIS GUY IS DEFINITELY A LEAD BACK."
Add in that Carter is super intriguing -- he had 1,245 rushing yards and 267 receiving yards last year for North Carolina. He has a 98th percentile agility score and a 97th percentile college yards per carry.
There's a lot to like about Carter. Add in that Coleman is ideal as a No. 2 back right now, and I don't think we see much out of Perine this year.
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