Sauceda's Slants: Finding POWA in the Infield

Aaron Sauceda explains his POWA index to find infielders (1B, 2B, 3B, SS) who could be sleepers or breakout for 2020 fantasy baseball leagues by providing consistency and hidden potential.

We recently introduced our new hitter metric, POWA (which stands for Prediction of wOBA Attempt), to more appropriately align and weight new Statcast metrics to better predict future performance.

You can read the introductory piece for the full details and a 2019 POWA leaderboard, but the gist of it is:

• POWA is nearly 10% more predictive of future wOBA than expected wOBA (xwOBA)
• POWA is more than two times stickier season-to-season than wOBA
• The weightings were determined based on optimizing predictiveness to next season’s (“season n+1”) wOBA:
  • Plate Discipline — 47%
    • Strikeout Rate (K%) — 27%
    • Walk Rate (BB%) — 20%
  • Contact Quality — 53%
    • Average Exit Velocity — 15%
    • Barrels per Batted Ball Event — 14%
    • % of Batted Balls Hit 95+ MPH — 10%
    • Maximum Exit Velocity — 6%
    • % of Batted Balls Poorly Topped — 5%
    • Average Distance — 3%

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Explanation

POWA Index: Intro | Infielders | Outfielders

In the introductory piece, we saw names like Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto fill the top 1% of the POWA leaderboard. We certainly didn’t need a new metric to tell us that those guys are elite hitters. But we also saw some fun surprises, like Dodgers’ prospect Edwin Rios in the 99^th percentile! (Even if only a tiny 56 PA sample.)

And that’s the fun of something like POWA — identifying less celebrated hitters who possess outstanding raw skills, whom the market isn’t pricing at a premium. Maybe, just maybe, they’re poised to deliver outsized Fantasy value.

To identify who that might be, let’s adapt an idea from FanGraphs’ Mike Podhorzer and build an entire hitting lineup comprised of only late gems. To do so, we’ll use the following rubric:

• ADP after pick 300 (equates to < ~$2 cost in auctions), based on the latest “Sprint — Main Event” NFBC ADP (7/10-7/20, n = 14 drafts)
• Top 25% by POWA in 2019
• Projected ATC OPS of at least .700 — research by Jeff Zimmerman found that hitters projected for an OPS below .650-.700 were at greater risk for losing playing time and/or being sent down to the minors (“sucking risk”)
• NFBC Rules: 14 hitters — 2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 5 OF, UT

Admittedly, this exercise is slightly more tailored to round out rosters in deeper formats — 50-round draft and holds, “only” leagues and deeper mixed leagues. For those in shallower formats, some of these hitters may make nice endgame selections but others may be best served as early “watch list” candidates. To combat this, in select cases where applicable, I’ve listed POWA-friendly hitters as “Just Missed — Too Expensive.” While their current sub-300 ADP precludes them from this list, they’re still going late (well after pick 200) and showing tasty, top-third POWA skills.

Having said that, before we feel that we’re digging too deep here, it’s worth reminding ourselves that you could have built a pretty reputable squad choosing only players that went after pick 300 last season (and probably every season)! And as our esteemed colleague, Ariel Cohen, pointed out on a recent “Beat The Shift” podcast, the shorter season will create conditions for more variable seasons — there’s less time for proven studs to differentiate themselves and so perhaps we see more unexpected “spike” seasons from later picks like some of those on this list.

Who that might be, though? Let’s build our POWA lineup to find out! Applying the criteria above leaves us with a pool of 35 hitters — here are my favorites, starting today with infielders. Outfielders will come next in a separate piece.

(STATISTICAL NOTE: All indexed stats referenced below are calculated from Baseball Savant data, where 100 equals league average and higher is better, except for strikeout rate and poorly topped percentage, where lower is better. Indexed figures are based on all players with at least 30 PA in 2019. Percentages indicate that metric’s POWA weighting — e.g., 27% weighting for strikeout rate. Unless otherwise indicated, projections are from ATC’s full-season late-March iteration, which rated as the best projection system from 2019. Much of the injury information was initially gathered from Derek Rhoads’ awesome injury dashboard tool. Park factors are from ESPN. Where possible, hitters are sorted by their POWA percentile.)

C - Kurt Suzuki, Washington Nationals - 70^th POWA Percentile

354 ADP

Okay, catcher is going to be different. I know my two selections don’t perfectly match the criteria above, but catcher can be rough, and they were too close not to include. In the case of Suzuki, he’s just outside the top 25% by POWA. Oh well, for our intents and purposes, he belongs here.

Here’s why I included him:

Suzuki’s end-of-season rank among catchers the last three seasons: 12^th, 8^th, 10^th

His PA totals in those seasons: 309, 388, 309

ATC is currently projecting him for 331 PA and to finish as the 11^th best catcher. He’s currently being drafted as the 22^nd catcher.

You’re not going to win your league by rostering Suzuki, but if you’re paying down at catcher, he’s a great endgame target likely to deliver surplus value and a stat line that won’t hurt your team — nothing to sneeze at from a catcher.

Now 36 years old, maybe this is the season it all falls apart. Nationals manager Dave Martinez has already named Yan Gomes the primary catcher, estimating Suzuki will play 40% of the time. Maybe that’s enough to keep him below 300 PA for the first time in three seasons, a stretch where he’s ranked 6^th among catchers by wRC+ and has been at least 5% better than league average with the bat in every season.

Even so, Steamer projects Suzuki to finish 16^th among catchers despite the lowest full-season PA projection (265) of any system hosted on FanGraphs. While you’re unlikely to get much more than the full-season equivalent of 300 PA, they will be of good quality. Suzuki’s approach at the plate may be the perfect representation of his solid, if unspectacular profile — with his superb strikeout rate (11.7% in 2019) and ability to avoid poorly hit balls, he presents a nice floor to solidify your catcher situation late.

C - Jason Castro, Los Angeles Angels

88^th POWA Percentile
355 ADP

Castro would have qualified for this list if it weren’t for his projected OPS of .697 from ATC. (What’s going on here, Ariel?!) I promise I’ll stick closer to the criteria for the rest of this list, but Castro was hard to ignore.

He’s produced at least 1.6 FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) in six of the last seven seasons and after signing a one-year deal worth $6.9M this offseason, he’ll enjoy the majority of playing time at catcher for the Angels, with Max Stassi (18^th percentile by POWA) and Anthony Bemboom (1^st percentile) unlikely to push him for playing time beyond the backup role.

While the strikeout rate is well below average, his walk rate was 46% above average and he slayed baseballs last season. Among those with at least 150 batted ball events, Castro ranked 6^th in barrels per batted ball event (Barrels/BBE) — 144% better than league average! — and 11^th in barrels per plate appearance (Barrels/PA).

A career .231 hitter who strikes out more than 30% of the time, you should expect a poor batting average but as the 23^rd catcher drafted, he represents one of your last chances to grab a quality, everyday option.

Just Missed — Too Expensive: Carson Kelly (86^th POWA Percentile, 239 ADP), Travis d’Arnaud (76^th, 273)

Honorable Mentions: Victor Caratini (78^th, 385), Stephen Vogt (74^th, 446)

1B - Justin Smoak, Milwaukee Brewers

97^th POWA Percentile
352 ADP

Smoak does essentially everything you’d want in a hitter. Look at all the “green” (or numbers substantially above league average) from his 2019! His strikeout rate was 12% better than league average. His walk rate was 92% better, good for top 3% in the league! While his average exit velocities were roughly average, his barrel rates were excellent — at least 50% better than average. Perhaps it’s his ability to work the count that’s putting him in a good position to crush baseballs — he led the league in percentage of pitches seen while ahead in the count. His 2017 showed his upside, a season where he finished as a top 50 hitter and earned over $18 for Fantasy managers.

Why was his 2019 stat line — .208/.342/.406 and a 101 wRC+ in 500 PA — so uninspiring then? And why, aside from 2017, are we often left feeling that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with Smoak?

For starters, it seems like bad luck was at least partially a factor last season — among hitters with at least 500 PA, Smoak’s .223 BABIP ranked 2^nd worst across MLB. Smoak’s expected stats, which are based on the exit velocities and launch angles of his batted balls, suggest his batting average (.250 xBA) and slugging percentage (.495 xSLG) should have been roughly 40-100 points higher. Even with 2019’s career low factored in, his career BABIP is .266 — whatever the case, .223 seems punitive.

That said, his sprint speed ranked in the 1^st percentile and his 42.7% flyball rate ranked in the top 25 — a good recipe for power, sure, but not great for turning more batted balls into hits. His at-bats from the left side (he’s a switch hitter) were shifted over 90% of the time, but the results of those shifts have been historically uneven for him.

Moving from Toronto to Milwaukee, Smoak should benefit from a better run environment, both in terms of the ballpark and lineup around him. With a career 110 wRC+ against righties (92 wRC+ against lefties), he’ll likely hold the strong side of the platoon at first base to start the season, but will have to perform with Avisail Garcia and Ryan Braun also on the roster and needing at-bats.

He dealt with a stiff neck early last season and an injured quadriceps in June sent him to the injured list (IL), and he never seemed to recover at the plate. Now, particularly at 33, there’s no guarantee that he’ll bounce back. His hold on playing time appears firm for now, but after signing a modest 1-year $5M deal (with a 2021 team option), he may not have the luxury of a slow start. Still, even if it was only once (2017), he’s demonstrated a ceiling worth chasing. The skills are in place, and the price is right.

2B - Robinson Cano, New York Mets

78^th POWA Percentile
351 ADP

After the Mets traded Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn (among others) to acquire Cano and Edwin Diaz — and get off Jay Bruce’s contract — Cano promptly turned in the second worst season of his career by wRC+ (93) and his worst since 2008 (86) when he was with the Yankees. (LOL Mets … sorry Mets fans.) He’d mostly been an iron man throughout his career with both the Yankees and Mariners, until 2018 when he was hit by a pitch and broke his right hand, and then was subsequently suspended two days later for testing positive for a banned substance.

Prior to that point, and even when he returned, performance wasn’t really a question — it was a relatively small 348 PA sample, but he was pretty good!

Cano’s 2018 (600-PA pace): 17 HR, 76 Runs, 86 RBI, .303/.374/.471 and 135 wRC+

Last season, his first with the Mets, both health and performance became a question. He battled lower body injuries — both to his left quad and hamstring — and finished the season with a .256/.307/.428 slash line in just 423 PA.

Now 37, this all could unravel quickly. Bounce backs are tough bets, particularly at his age. When you add the dark cloud of a substance abuse suspension, your mind really starts to wonder — all fair points.

But he’s still just two seasons removed from nearly finishing as a top 10 Fantasy second baseman. And he was 35% above average with the bat in a shortened 2018, including a 130 wRC+ when he returned from injury and suspension that season. Both his strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction last season, but he’s never been a plus walker and his strikeout rate was still 30% better than league average.

His exit velocities fell from 2018 but were in line with his 2015-2017 figures and still above average, particularly his ability to hit balls greater than 95 MPH. His expected stats indicate a hint of poor luck, as both his expected batting average (.280 xBA) and slugging percentage (.450 xSLG) were nearly 25 points higher than his actual figures.

ATC projects Cano to finish as the 32^nd second baseman — that won’t get you out of bed in the morning, but it’s also based on just 501 PA. If he can use this extended offseason to get healthy and rested, and put together close to a full season, he should be able to deliver nice value to your middle infield.

For better or worse, he’s likely to play every day, or as often as he can handle, and hit in the middle of a frisky Mets lineup. Combined with Cano’s track record and skills — age be damned — it’s difficult to find that elsewhere at this point in drafts.

SS - Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves

79^th POWA Percentile
228 ADP

I know he’s going well before pick 300, but despite the enviable depth at shortstop this season, Swanson is the only SS-eligible player currently going after pick 200 that meets our criteria!

The former first overall pick back in 2015, Swanson forced his way to the top of the lineup last season (hitting second) before an injury to his right heel knocked him out of the lineup for the next month. Before the injury, he’d been on a tidy 600-PA pace:

.265/.330/.468, 24 HR, 89 Runs, 79 RBI, 10 SB

Of course, that was while hitting second for many of his plate appearances. He’ll have to hit his way back to the top half of the lineup, but even if he does, barring injury, it’s hard to foresee him supplanting Acuna, Albies, Freeman or Ozuna in the top four.

Still, some of the changes behind Swanson’s mini-breakout suggest promise if he can stay healthy — he improved his plate discipline, worked himself into better counts and punished pitches, particularly fastballs, in those counts.

He does nearly everything at least a little above average: both his strikeout and walk rates are above average and although his average exit velocities are nothing special, he can really sting the ball — both his barrel rate and percentage of balls hit greater than 95 MPH were top five among shortstops. (He also doesn’t hit poorly topped balls very often.)

Add in a dash of luck — Swanson’s expected batting average (.271 xBA) and slugging percentage (.480 xSLG) were approximately 20 and 60 points higher, respectively, than his actual figures — and you have a compelling recipe for a full season breakout.

3B - Maikel Franco, Kansas City Royals

84^th POWA Percentile
402 ADP

Franco’s 2015 debut as a 22-year-old — a .280/.343/.497 slash line, good for a 129 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR in 335 PA — gave us just enough of a “taste” to keep chasing a full season repeat. It never came. He’s been a league average bat only once since then (a 105 wRC+ in 2018) and otherwise well below average: 92 (2016), 76 (2017), 70 (2019).

There’s really no way to sugarcoat it: he just hasn’t been good. After being sent down to Triple-A at one point last season, it wasn’t much of a surprise when the Phillies non-tendered him this offseason. He’s since signed a one-year, $2.95M deal with the Royals, presumably to start at third base. The Royals were one of the worst five teams in baseball last season and they don’t project to be demonstrably better this season, so Franco’s job is likely relatively safe.

The opportunity is likely to be there, but Franco is moving from a passable lineup to a bad one. Worse, he’s expected to start low in the batting order. While Kauffman Stadium has been a sneaky-good run environment, it’s one of the worst parks for homers — certainly much worse than Citizens Bank Park. That’s not a great formula for a hitter who needs to hit for power to provide Fantasy value, although perhaps the move could be a good buoy for Franco’s batting average.

After all, his skills portend a quality batting average. Among hitters with at least 400 PA last season, Franco strikeout rate was in the top 30. Among those 30, his isolated power (ISO) ranked 13^th. It’s a bit of a unique combination of low strikeouts and power. He paired that with a roughly league average walk rate, drawing walks at a career-best 8.4% clip.

He also raised his launch angle to a career-high 14.9 degrees. It didn’t result in more power — instead, his popup rate spiked to nearly 15% — but it was a noteworthy development for someone who had previously hit groundballs closer in line with that of a slap hitter than a power hitter. Despite the broad frame, he won’t dominate Statcast exit velocity leaderboards, although he’s at least league average in that regard.

Franco is an interesting case. How often do you see 22-year-olds produce in the majors as 29% better than league average, only to be non-tendered a few years later? He’s still just 27, tweaking and improving under the hood. Could he go the way of new teammate, Hunter Dozier, and have a 27-year-old mini-breakout? It’s an interesting question that might be worth finding an answer to at this point in drafts.

Just Missed — Too Expensive: Yandy Diaz (93^rd, 273), Brian Anderson (80^th, 225)

Honorable Mentions: Rake Jake Lamb (89^th, 409), Brad Miller (85^th, 659 in March “Draft Champions” drafts), Kyle Seager (83^rd, 327), Asdrubal Cabrera (76^th, 424)

CI - Daniel Vogelbach, Seattle Mariners

93^rd POWA Percentile
440 ADP

*Scroll up to Smoak, Justin*

Ctrl + C, Ctrl + V.

You really almost could!

Keen eye? Walk rate in the top 2% of the league; second in the league — behind only Smoak! — in percentage of pitches seen while ahead in the count. Check!

Prodigious power? 80^th percentile in barrels per batted ball event rate. Check!

Slow as molasses? 3^rd percentile sprint speed. Check!

Where Vogelbach diverges is also what lowers his batting average ceiling relative to Smoak.

First, he’s got more swing and miss in his game, with a strikeout rate that’s 11% worse than league average. Second, he was slightly more extreme in his flyball-heavy approach, ranking 11^th in flyball rate (44.8%) among hitters with at least 500 PA. Third, it could be noisy in a one-season sample, but he was much more negatively impacted by the shift — he was shifted on 67% of his PA and his wOBA when shifted was more than 25 points lower than when not shifted. Lastly, hitting only from the left side, Vogelbach has much more of a pronounced platoon split, with a 129 wRC+ against righties (530 career PA) but only a 56 wRC+ against lefties (174 career PA).

Worse, Vogelbach has less of a track record in the majors, and arguably a less secure playing time situation. He also really struggled in the second half of last season — after hitting a 126 wRC+ in the first half, his strikeout and walk rates both cratered and Vogelbach struggled to a 68 wRC+ in the second half.

Still, there’s quite a bit to like with his profile! To start, I think a shorter season might benefit him. While there was a chance the Mariners’ young hitting talent — namely Jarred Kelenic and maybe Julio Rodriguez — might have forced their way to the big-league roster with a full season to do so. With a shorter season, I think the Mariners front office will be more inclined to chock it up to a lost year and avoid starting their service clocks.

With Evan White locked in at first base, Vogelbach's only real path to everyday at-bats is at DH. He should be able to lock that down — Steamer projects him has the M’s best hitter by wRC+ and tied for 8th in fWAR among all Mariners — but some questions remain: first, can he correct whatever bothered him in the second half last season? Second, can he force his way to face lefties and thus more plate appearances?

Even with his struggles last season, he still finished with 1.6 fWAR and as 11% better than league average with the bat. Also, let’s not forget that this was his first extended chance in the majors — he mashed in the minors, finishing with 60 home runs in 1,488 PA in Triple-A alone, and never below a 122 wRC+. With a full year of major league plate appearances under his belt, it’s not farfetched to think he can adjust. In spring, he talked about his offseason focus being improving “dominating” against lefties. There’s a good player in here with compelling skills, and the cost to acquire him for your Fantasy team is absurdly low.

Just Missed — Too Expensive: CJ Cron (86^th, 199), Joey Votto (85^th, 271), Renato Nunez (78^th, 280)

Honorable Mentions: Edwin Rios (99^th, 442), Mike Ford (95^th, 577 in March “Draft Champions” drafts), Ji-Man Choi (93^rd, 437), Mitch Moreland (89^th, 450), Ryan Zimmerman (82^nd, 651 in March “Draft Champions” drafts), Jesus Aguilar (82^nd, 369), Miguel Cabrera (80^th, 318), Matt Beaty (80^th, 449), Eric Thames (76^th, 309)

MI - Howie Kendrick, Washington Nationals

95^th POWA Percentile
240 ADP (up from 353 ADP in March “Draft Champions” Drafts)

Howie chose his age-36 season to generate the most Fantasy dollars he’s earned since he was a Dodger in 2014. If he were likely to secure more bankable playing time, he might have grabbed the 2B slot on this list ahead of Cano. While that didn’t stop him last season — he finished as a top 15 Fantasy second baseman and generated 2.9 fWAR in just 370 PA — it’s probably the prudent approach not to buy the repeat of such an outlier season.

Despite the loss of Rendon, Washington has a crowded depth chart and an excellent projected bench of Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael A. Taylor. If Carter Kieboom wins the opening day third base job, all those guys will be battling for fill-in plate appearances behind starters. That said, if the condensed season sprint drives more bench utilization, then Kendrick might have a clearer path to more plate appearances than he would relative to a typical season.

With an elite strikeout rate and top 20% barrel rate, Kendrick should provide a nice mix of plus batting average — he hit .344 last season and he’s hit .322 in 708 PA since joining the Nationals in 2017 — and passable power across two positions (1B/2B).

He’ll turn 37 this season and while his skillset has aged well thus far, it’s fair to wonder at what point things might degrade quickly. Still, Steamer has him projected for the second-best wRC+ on the team and, like in real baseball, he should be a solid fill-in for Fantasy teams — particularly in deeper daily leagues or leagues where you’re not forced to commit to a starting lineup for a full week. I prefer to shoot for more upside with my later picks, and I’d like to see Kendrick’s price fall a bit more before grabbing him, but if you’re looking for late batting average help eligible at both MI and CI, Howie might be your guy.

Honorable Mentions

• Aledmys Diaz (86^th, 564 in March “Draft Champions” drafts)
• Brian Dozier (79^th, 595 in March “Draft Champions” drafts)

Stay tuned for the upcoming piece about outfielders and more…

Make sure to poke around the full leaderboard on RotoBaller to see what other late gems you can find — let me know on Twitter (@RotoPope) if there are some standout options that I missed!

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