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With the NFL draft approaching, everyone is looking at the rookies in this class in an attempt to figure out which ones are going to develop into successful players. We all have our own ways of determining which players have a greater chance of success than others. Today, we're taking a look at these incoming rookies with an advanced stats viewpoint in mind.
Using a collection of four statistics gathered from playerprofiler.com, I looked at the top 10 rookie receivers as ranked by the RotoBaller staff and I tried to determine which of them are most likely to be successful in their careers. The four statistics work to show how that player performed against college competition combined with when they did it.
We're looking at dominator rating, which is defined as a player's market share of his team's offense. We have to go over a player's breakout age because that shows how quickly they were able to be successful in college. SPARQ-x, which can roughly be defined as a standardized athletic test all athletes go through, scores will be mentioned, but we didn't have full data on that topic due to limited testing. We wrap it all up with a player's target share, which can help parse between players that put up numbers due to volume of touches vs actual elite production. Our final bit of information will be his best pro comp that is given to him by MockDraftable, which factors in size and speed. Enough nerd talk, let's get into it.
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1. Ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma
Dominator Rating: 38.1% 77th percentile
Breakout Age: 19.4 81st percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 24.7%
MockDraftable Comp: Justin Blackmon 95.3%
When looking at wide receiver rankings for this draft class, CeeDee Lamb is usually going to be the first or second name that you see among all draft experts. He presents a combination of size and speed that matches up with some of the league's top wideouts. One of the most common comparisons for him throughout the predraft process has been DeAndre Hopkins, although Nuk is a bit bigger and he was a better jumper coming out of college. Lamb didn't fully test after having his Pro Day canceled, so we don't get his full SPARQ-x measurements.
Looking at Lamb's analytics, he checks every box you'd want to see. He was productive during each year of his college career, with at least 800 receiving yards in all three seasons. He broke out early on and commanded a healthy target share, even when surrounded by future NFL talent. He's going to go in the first round of the draft, and he's going to be an immediate impact player during his rookie season. He may not be putting up Odell Beckham Jr. levels of production off the bat, but I'd expect a strong year out of him.
Verdict: Truther
2. Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Dominator Rating: 25.1 % 36th percentile
Breakout Age: 19.4 82nd percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 25.1%
MockDraftable Comp: Jonathan Holland 99%
Unlike Lamb, Jeudy isn't immediately jumping off of the page with his first statistic. He didn't dominate his team's offense like Lamb, but that was due in large part to the other guys that were around him on the offense. Teammate Henry Ruggs III, who is likely going to be drafted in the first round, was on the roster. Add in Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Najee Harris, you have a ton of offensive production and only so many mouths to feed. Like Lamb, Jeudy also didn't get to complete his pro day workout.
Jeudy redeems himself quickly after breaking out early like Lamb during his 19-year old season, and he actually dominated a higher target share than Lamb at 25.1 percent. Lamb is a much better threat after the catch, and he's a better player down in the red zone. I look at Jeudy as the higher floor player that could be a huge difference-maker if he goes into an offense that gives him a lot of targets. If a team expects him to consistently turn short passes into big plays, they wouldn't be utilizing him in the best way possible.
Verdict: Truther
3. Tee Higgins, Clemson
Dominator Rating: 29.7% 50th percentile
Breakout Age: 18.6 96th percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 15.7%
MockDraftable Comp: Lawrence Cager 97.4%
Our dominator rating is trending downward, and that's not what we want to see. Higgins is now below the 30 percent mark after sharing the field with stud wideout Justyn Ross last season along with running back Travis Ettienne, who should have been in this draft class. He redeems himself with his breakout age that is one of the best in the class, and it's the best among this top 10. Higgins was performing on the biggest stage throughout his college career, and he was consistently putting up strong production.
After Higgins chose to not test at the combine, it gave the NFL a very limited look at him athletically, other than what they saw on the field. His size is his best trait with a height that's in the 90th percentile along with arm length that's in the 92nd. It's going to be interesting to see where he gets drafted. He can be classified as a "jump-ball" receiver, yet he chose not to jump at the combine. Higgins can lean on his production numbers and early breakout age which will likely carry him to be drafted somewhere on Day 2.
Verdict: Liar
4. Laviska Shenault Jr., Colorado
Dominator Rating: 35.1% 68th percentile
Breakout Age: 19.9 66th percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 20%
MockDraftable Comp: Chauncey Stovall 96.6%
One of the bigger losers from the combine was Laviska Shenault, who was likely hoping to get to his Pro Day where he could better his numbers. He tested poorly athletically, which was supposed to be one of his strengths. Injury may be to blame, but it still didn't leave a favorable impression to scouts. He didn't particularly dominate in any one area of advanced numbers either, but he put up solid marks across the board. He was the leading force of a largely anemic Colorado offense, and he was at the mercy of a struggling quarterback in Steven Montez.
He broke out during his sophomore season that saw him put up over 1,000 receiving yards, and he's going to have to pitch teams on his versatility by selling up the idea he could be the next Deebo Samuel. He had 42 carries in college, and he averaged 6.7 yards per carry. The key for him is going to be landing spot above all. A creative offensive coach can get the most out of him, but if he ends up in a more traditional offense, it could shut down all hope of him becoming the type of NFL player his college tape shows he can be.
Verdict: Truther
5. Henry Ruggs III, Alabama
Dominator Rating: 17.5% 17th percentile
Breakout Age: N/A
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 13.1%
MockDraftable Comp: Edmond Gates 76.8%
We've now gotten into the most divisive wide receiver in this draft class. Ruggs is an elite athlete with tremendous talent, but he failed to ever be a more than a role player with the Alabama offense. His dominator rating leaves much to be desired in just the 17th percentile, and he never even broke out. Despite all of that, he's still viewed by most as a top-five wide receiver prospect in this class, and it's expected that he'll be in the top three receivers off the board. Why?
It's the Tyreek Hill rule. The Kansas City Chiefs wideout has broken the game of football with his speed similar to the way Stephen Curry broke the game of basketball with his shooting. Ruggs had 100 career touches in school. He turned 25 of them into touchdowns. When he got the ball, you better hope you're close enough to make the tackle because he's making a house call otherwise. Ruggs has arguably the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class, but he also comes with a low floor. Given the right opportunity, Ruggs could legitimately be the next Hill, but the advanced numbers don't like the odds.
Verdict: Liar
6. Jalen Reagor, TCU
Dominator Rating: 36.7% 73rd percentile
Breakout Age: 18.7 95th percentile
SPARQ-x: 114.1 78th percentile
Target Share: 23.5%
MockDraftable Comp: Speedy Noil 73.3%
The darling of a number of guys in the Devy community has been Jalen Reagor over the last couple of years. He broke out super young, and he was producing great numbers during that breakout season. Unfortunately, inconsistent quarterback play consistently held him back from putting up even better numbers. During his sophomore campaign, the team rotated time between three quarterbacks who all struggled with accuracy issues. Despite that, Reagor was still out there dragging his team to success.
We have our first SPARQ-x score, and it's a good one. However, it was viewed by some as somewhat of a letdown after the eye-popping athleticism he showed in high school during his time on the track team. The fact he only commanded 23.5 percent of the targets was surprising considering the dearth of talent they had among the pass-catchers. It's difficult to find a comp for him, but he has the skills to be successful in the NFL. He's also shown the ability to dominate against good competition in the Big 12.
Verdict: Truther
7. Justin Jefferson, LSU
Dominator Rating: 30.0% 51st percentile
Breakout Age: 19.6 75th percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 21.5%
MockDraftable Comp: Tyrie Cleveland 98.2%
Wideout Justin Jefferson is one of my favorite players in this class, and I'll be in the market for him a lot this year in the right landing spot. That being said, his advanced numbers leave something to be desired. His dominator rating was in the 51st percentile, but that's going to happen when you have talented players like Ja'Marr Chase and Clyde Edwards-Helaire lining up on the field with you. Throw in Thaddeus Moss, who had a decent final college season, and you have a lot of talented guys taking up a lot of production.
His breakout age makes me feel a little better. He was under 20 years old, which is a big benchmark for me. They were breaking out before their sophomore season was over, and they had a full year to build on that. His target share was a little low, and, if you want to gripe with that, look back at the names I just listed. Jefferson has a great career ahead of him as a slot receiver, and he could be the perfect weapon to grow alongside a rookie quarterback like former teammate Joe Burrow.
Verdict: Truther
8. Denzel Mims, Baylor
Dominator Rating: 42.3% 86th percentile
Breakout Age: 19.9 67th percentile
SPARQ-x: 113.7 77th percentile
Target Share: 24.1 percent
MockDraftable Comp: Stephen Hill 78.4%
I think that Denzel Mims has had the best pre-draft process of any wide receiver thus far. He crushed the Senior Bowl, and he followed that up with arguably the best combine of any guy at the position. There's a ton of film out there on him, and the advanced numbers back him up. His dominator rating of over 40 percent is bananas, and he did that with a smaller target share than Jeudy or Lamb. When Mims was given the ball, the guy was creating big plays with it.
He left something to be desired in the short-shuttle, but he crushed the other athleticism tests, which is why he was in the 84th percentile or better in each measurement. The one thing that will likely give some people pause is the late breakout age, but he still got there prior to 20, which is the main mark to beat. Mims checked off just about every box that you could have asked for, and he's poised to have that quality draft capital that you look for in a wide receiver.
Verdict: Truther
9. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona St.
Dominator Rating: 40.6% 82nd percentile
Breakout Age: 21.5 26th percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 26.9%
MockDraftable Comp: Chris Moore 84.6%
When Brandon Aiyuk was handed the keys to the car, there was no turning back. N'Keal Harry was out of the picture, and the man was on a mission. His numbers skyrocketed across the board which makes sense, but it's also troubling that he was unable to perform at a great level until he became the lead guy which can raise some questions for him at the next level. If he's the number two to a truly elite wide receiver, what kind of production will you get out of him?
His breakout age is a big question mark as he's nearly in the bottom quarter of wide receivers. He just turned 22 in the middle of March which will make him one of the oldest receivers in this class. He played four years in school, two of which came in Junior College, where he put up some crazy numbers, and his production always improved when he got his feet under him. I'm not convinced that he'll be a great rookie, but it could be Year 2 where he takes a leap.
Verdict: Liar
10. Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan
Dominator Rating: 25.1% 36th percentile
Breakout Age: 19.5 77th percentile
SPARQ-x: N/A
Target Share: 13.2%
MockDraftable Comp: Emanuel Hall 84.6%
Unfortunately for Donovan Peoples-Jones, the former top wide receiver in the country coming out of high school, he chose a school that didn't have an elite passing offense that would allow him to display his full repertoire of production. His dominator rating was putrid because the team spread the ball to each of their receivers, but his breakout age was great. He was under 20 years old, and he took advantage of his size, 6'2" & 212 lbs, and speed, 4.48-second 40-yard dash, to become a good scoring threat. He rang up 14 touchdowns across two years.
The issue that you're going to have when assessing DPJ comes down to his quarterback play and target share. Was he really not good enough to command more than 13.2 percent of the targets? Was Shea Patterson that poor of a quarterback that he couldn't get the ball out to his playmakers? Both are possibilities, and DPJ will have to hope that he made a good impression on some coaches and GMs at the combine in Indianapolis to make sure he gets drafted well.
Verdict: Liar
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