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The contest we will focus on in this article is the FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Props contest, specifically for the Week 18 Saturday Slate featuring two games. The first will be between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, and the second between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. FantasyBook allows you to build a two-to-five pick based on their fantasy points projection and pick over or under the projected total. If you get all of your picks correct, you can win up to 18x your buy-in.
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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 18 Saturday Slate
It's worth noting that three of these teams have playoff implications attached to their games, which is important because it means they are highly motivated to win, plus their starters will play the whole game. The team eliminated from contention is the Las Vegas Raiders. Although they are interested in finding out about their quarterback Jarrett Stidham, so they'll likely trot out most of their starters.
Derrick Henry OVER 18.71 fantasy points
The Titans elected to sit Henry in a meaningless game last week against the Cowboys to ensure he is well-rested and ready to go for this matchup. The winner takes the division, and if they have any chance of knocking off the Jaguars, it'll be on the back of their mammoth running back. Henry has rushed for at least 104 yards and a score in three straight contests, including 121 yards in Week 14 against Jacksonville.
If we assume he hits that 100-yard mark and finds the end zone once, that would equal 16 fantasy points. What's been the cherry on top for him is his role as a pass-catcher. He's finished with two or more receptions in seven of his past nine games, including three or more in five of them. If we add in those two receptions, he'd be at 18 points, plus whatever yardage he accumulates on those catches, which gets him over the line. There's a strong chance he exceeds both the rushing and receiving totals outlined, especially with Joshua Dobbs taking over, who played well last week. Henry is a great bet to hit the over.
Jerick McKinnon OVER 13.99 fantasy points
McKinnon has taken the fantasy world by storm, leading many of his managers to titles. He's scored through the air in five straight weeks, averaging five receptions per game for about 61 yards just as a receiver. Those numbers alone would put him over this line (five receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown), never mind what he can add as a runner.
The Chiefs have an implied total of about 30 points, most of which will come from their passing attack. Patrick Mahomes leads the league with 40 touchdown passes, averaging about 2.5 per game. Furthermore, the Raiders are the second-worst defense by DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and are a top-five matchup for running backs, meaning any rushing attempts he does receive are likely to be productive. Ride with McKinnon one more time and take the over.
Evan Engram OVER 12.37 fantasy points
Tight ends are more volatile because they aren't typically as involved as wide receivers. However, Engram is one of a handful of players that is the exception to the rule. He has become a staple of the Jacksonville offense. Last week was a throwaway because the team scored three times on the ground and once from their defense, eliminating the need to air it out. However, entering that game, he averaged nearly eight receptions per game for about 92 yards and 0.75 touchdowns in his previous four outings. He cleared 100 yards twice, with seven or more receptions three times.
JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 12.93 fantasy points
Typically, on a team that is as pass-heavy as the Chiefs, ranked first in pass rate over expectation and fifth in passing attempts per game, you get very excited about their No. 1 receiver. Unfortunately, in this offense, that player is their tight end, Travis Kelce. Moreover, 19% of their overall passing attempts are to their running backs. They consistently distribute the ball to a variety of players instead of hyper-targeting one individual.
Smith-Schuster has emerged as the leader of the pack, but the production hasn't often been there. Over his last six games, he's finished with three or fewer receptions four times, failing to surpass 40 yards in any of those four outings. Additionally, he only has three touchdowns this season, and one since Week 7. The other factor here is the game script. In a game they're expected to establish a big lead, it's riskier to rely on secondary options such as Smith-Schuster. Take the under on him, while their other stars shoulder the load.
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