Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 15 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

December 16, 2022

Quarterback Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for fantasy football Week 15 (2022). Gage analyzes QB matchups vs. opposing defense's pass rush. His QB matchups to start or bench.

Week 15 of the NFL season is here. We have made it to the fantasy playoffs, and it's time for us to put our hard work from these past six or more months to good use. This is what we've been working towards. For those of you that made the playoffs in your respective leagues, congratulations. For those of you that didn't, enjoy the offseason, and the best of luck to you next year.

After several strong weeks, we had a mixed bag in Week 14 for this column. We went 3-of-6 on our hits and misses. Luckily, two of those hits were in the starts category as Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes finished 2nd and sixth last week. Russell Wilson looked like he was on track for another bad week before turning it on to finish QB3 on the week. Tua Tagovailoa struggled against an aggressive Los Angeles Chargers' defense, but he at least scraped together a QB17 finish on the week.

Finally, after two months of incessant bye weeks and player absences, our lineups are set. Unfortunately, we're still dealing with injuries to players and quarterbacks, but we at least know that all 32 teams will be suiting up for NFL action this weekend.

Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Cincinnati Bengals Pass Rush vs. Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has just one fantasy performance of 20 or more points this season. The last time he completed a full season with fewer than at least two games with 20 or more fantasy points was the 2004 season. That was 18 years ago, and he’s in the midst of a season where the team just seems to be crumbling around him. His offensive line ranks first in fewest sacks allowed and adjusted sack rate. However, that’s because Brady’s pocket time is just 2.2 seconds, which is the second-fastest mark in the league.

The Cincinnati Bengals are just below league average in sacks with 29 on the year, and they just haven’t been able to get after the quarterback at the rate they would like. They have at least one sack in each of their last four games, and they’ve been stifling some strong offenses. Even if they don’t sack Brady a ton, they’re second on the year in quarterback knockdown rate and in the top 10 for pressure rate. They’ll be around him, and that could be all it takes to slow him down this week.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

New Orleans Saints Pass Rush vs. Desmond Ridder

At this point in the season, if you have to start or consider starting Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder, I’m sorry for you. We’re likely to see a dramatically different offensive attack for the Falcons this week as they’re changing quarterbacks, and that could result in an early-game boost for the rookie signal caller. However, his offensive line has hardly been an elite unit. They have the league’s sixth-worst sack rate despite having given up the 10th-fewest sacks with how much they’ve run the ball.

Fresh off a stunning loss to the Bucs, the New Orleans Saints will be looking to make life difficult on the rookie signal caller. They’re 10th in the league in sacks, and they’re eighth in adjusted sack rate. This group has been able to harass quarterbacks consistently all season, and this is a matchup that should be no different. Ridder starting against this defense is a matchup worth avoiding.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Green Bay Packers Pass Rush vs. Baker Mayfield

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Baker Mayfield is on his third team since July, and he’s coming off of one of the more improbable wins of the season after beating the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night last week. His offensive line ranks last in the NFL in sacks allowed this season, and they have the league’s third-worst sack rate. I tend to think that last week’s game, where Mayfield went 22-of-35 for 230 yards and a touchdown, was more of an aberration than a sign he turned the corner. Additionally, he was still sacked four times in the game, so the line was still letting pressure get to him.

The way to beat the Green Bay Packers all season has been by running the ball. Unfortunately for the Rams, they’ve struggled to run the ball all season long outside of a few random spurts. The Packers started the season strong rushing the passer, but they fell off following a rash of injuries in the middle of the year, particularly to Rashan Gary. This is a great get-right spot for them, and I think Baker could come crashing back to Earth this week.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Chicago Bears Pass Rush vs. Jalen Hurts

Arguably the hottest player in the fantasy football world over the last few weeks is Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Over his last three games, Hurts has 29.8 or more points in each of those three games. On the year, he has just two games under 20 fantasy points. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest quarterback hits this season, but they’ve allowed a decent amount of sacks as their 34 allowed is tied for 10th-most in the league. Jalen’s ability to run has often helped him to elevate his floor every week, and you shouldn’t be fading him yet. 

The Chicago Bears have been the league’s worst defense at sacking quarterbacks with just 16 sacks on the year. A major reason for that has been their lack of stopping the run, but they still have the league’s third-worst adjusted sack rate. Teams can run on them, and the quarterbacks are often hanging out in the pocket without fear of being sacked. The Eagles are pushing to lock up the top seed in the NFC, and Hurts is in a great spot to help your fantasy teams this week as well.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Tennessee Titans Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert

There is something to be said for riding the hot hand and just staying with Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. That’s exactly what we’re doing this week. Herbert has 18 or more fantasy points in each of his last four games. The only reason he hasn’t had more in the last two games was because he had just one passing touchdown in each. He had 330 or more yards in each game, and the Chargers rank ninth on the year in adjusted sack rate. With his wide receivers back in the fold, Herbert has looked more comfortable while operating the offense.

The Tennessee Titans have the league’s 10th-worst adjusted sack rate. With center Corey Linsley in the lineup, the Chargers’ offensive line has settled in even more, and they look like a group that’s trending the right direction while the Titans are heading the other way. The Chargers won’t really be able to run the ball in this matchup, but they’re set up to be able to throw against this team. Herbert can keep rolling this week.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Denver Broncos Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

The only real concern you have with starting Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes this week is that the game could become a blowout where they stop throwing the ball early on. However, even when they were leading by a large amount last week, they were still throwing the ball. On the year, the Chiefs have the fourth-best adjusted sack rate and the fourth-fewest sacks allowed at this point in the year.

The Houston Texans have the 19th-most sacks this season, but Jerry Hughes remains the team only real above-average pass rusher. Through 13 games this season, he has 8.0 sacks which is 4.5 more than any other player on the roster. In two career games against the Texans, Mahomes has only been sacked twice, and he's thrown six touchdowns compared to just one interception. This team is not on the same level as those past Texans roster, and I expect Mahomes to continue pushing for his second career MVP award.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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