RADIO
Week 13 of the NFL season is here. We're in the final push for the playoffs with just six weeks of NFL action ahead of us. In rare instances, your fantasy playoffs may be already starting, although if that is the case, you need to have that pushed back a couple of weeks. You have worked all year for these weeks, and it's time to finish strong.
It was a nearly flawless week for the column in Week 12. We went 3-of-3 on our sit recommendations, with all three of Bryce Perkins, Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan finishing as QB28 or worse on the week. In the starts category, we were a blowout performance away from a 3-of-3 showing. Tua Tagovailoa was QB18 on the week, and he was pulled from the game in the third quarter with just one passing touchdown to his name. Assuming touchdowns are worth four points in your league, one additional score would have bumped him up to QB12 on the week, just to give you an idea of how clustered things were last week.
We have just two teams that are off this week. More than likely, you will only be without one quarterback depending on your leagues. The Arizona Cardinals and Kyler Murray find themselves sitting at home as a lost season is winding down while the Carolina Panthers and Sam Darnold have a week off to prepare for an unlikely run at a division title.
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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
New York Jets Pass Rush vs. Kirk Cousins
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had a solid bounce-back game last week after one of the worst games of his career the prior, but he could be due for some regression this week against the New York Jets. Offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw (concussion) remains in the concussion protocol this week, and, when he has been out of the lineup, the team has struggled mightily to keep Cousins upright.
On the year, the Vikings are 11th in adjusted sack rate, and that’s weighed down by their poor performance against the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago. The Jets are ninth in adjusted sack rate this season, and they just got done dismantling the Chicago Bears a week ago. New York is fourth by DVOA on defense, and they’ve been a problem for quarterbacks all season. If Darrisaw misses this week’s game, Cousins could be in for a long day.
Verdict: Sit 'Em
Baltimore Ravens Pass Rush vs. Russell Wilson
Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson has been the most disappointing quarterback option all year. His 13.96 fantasy points per game ranks 29th among all quarterbacks, and he’s only 25th if you take out quarterbacks with three or fewer starts. The offensive line has given up the fourth-most sacks with the eighth-worst adjusted sack rate. They also have the second-worst pressure rate this season while being tied for the most quarterback hits allowed.
The Baltimore Ravens’ offense has been hit or miss this season, but the defense has been strong and improving in recent weeks. Since acquiring Roquan Smith at the trade deadline, they’ve been stout on defense, and they have exactly four sacks in each of their last three games. They’re fifth on the year in sacks, and, when teams have beaten them, it’s been through the air, which this Broncos’ team likely won’t be accomplishing.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Dallas Cowboys Pass Rush vs. Matt Ryan
It’s another week where we have to take Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan and slot him into a bench spot. This Dallas Cowboys defense has been a problem for everyone they’ve gone up against as of late. They’ve racked up eight more sacks than any other defense this year, and their 11.5 percent adjusted sack rate makes them the league’s only defense above 10 percent in that category. They’re also top 10 in the NFL in hurry and knockdown rate while leading the league in pressure rate.
Ryan has struggled all year outside of a couple of random outlier games. The way to beat this Dallas defense isn’t through the air though. If Indy wants to have any success here, they’ll need to run the ball with running back Jonathan Taylor. The Colts lead the league in sacks allowed, and they have the second-worst adjusted sack rate. When they’re winning games, it’s often on the ground. If they fail to establish the run early, Ryan could be in for a long and difficult day.
Verdict: Sit ‘Em
Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups
Detroit Lions Pass Rush vs. Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is fresh off of an outstanding comeback win, and he’s in the middle of a strong stretch of play over the last several weeks. Since Week 6, he’s scored 16.7 or more points in five of his six games while throwing just two interceptions in that span. On the year, his offensive line has allowed the sixth-fewest sacks to this point, and they continue to give him plenty of time to work in the pocket.
The Lions haven’t been able to stop hardly anyone this season outside of a couple of one-off performances. Despite ranking highly in the blitz rate and pressure rate categories, they’re 26th in sacks created. They don’t have an elite rusher up front that can wreck opposing gameplans, and it’s unlikely that they’re going to get that fixed this year. Lawrence will likely have his full complement of weapons this week, and I think he’s due for another strong week as he looks to build some late-season momentum heading into next year.
Verdict: Start 'Em
Las Vegas Raiders Pass Rush vs. Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert got just one of his top two wide receivers back, and he’s looked like a dramatically different player. Over his last two games with Keenan Allen in the lineup, Herbert is averaging 23.7 fantasy points in those games. His offensive line also remains strong with the seventh-fewest sacks allowed. Now, they go up against a defense that Herbert already had 23.2 points against earlier this season.
The Raiders are tied for last in the NFL with 16 sacks, and they failed to sack Herbert at all during their prior matchup. Their plan of attack in this game will likely be to feature running back Josh Jacobs heavily to keep Herbert off of the field. The only problem with that is Herbert will still have no problems moving the ball when he is on the field. They don’t have the rush to bother him, and they don’t have the coverage guys to slow down this passing attack.
Verdict: Start ‘Em
Cincinnati Bengals Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes
The only real concern about this game from the Kansas City side of things is that this defense has the number of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think that’s the case this week because Mahomes and the Chiefs know what is on the line here. If they win out, they control their destiny in the AFC. They’re tied for second in the league in fewest sacks allowed, and they have a defense that has struggled to create sacks all year.
The Cincinnati Bengals are tied for 30th in sacks this year, and that isn’t improving. They have just three players that have generated more than one sack this season, and they have the third-worst adjusted sack rate. Teams can drop back to pass against them without putting a ton of concern on the amount of pass rush that they’ll face. Mahomes and the Chiefs are in a great spot this week.
Verdict: Start 'Em
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