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Brenton Kemp looks at a handful of first basemen sleepers in points leagues and H2H points scoring for the 2023 season. These first basemen are poised to outperform their ADPs.
Fantasy baseball draft season is in full swing as Opening Day is just one week away. In other words, it's decision time.
We're here to look at some first base-eligible players in NFBC leagues that will exceed their ADP value. First base is usually where fantasy managers anchor their teams with homers, RBI, and runs. Below is a list of players who will provide tremendous value and give managers solid production to fill in at first base, corner infield, or the utility spot.
For now, we'll focus on the positive side of the ledger and discuss some names that you might want to target at prevailing ADPs this spring.
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Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
ADP - 42.31 PRK - 5 OVRK - 40
Matt Olson is a player who has teased MVP potential in the past, such as in the 2021 season when he posted career-highs in every single roto statistic: .271 BA, 39 HR, 101 runs, 111 RBI, and four stolen bases. His first season with the Braves went well as he hit 34 HR alongside 103 RBI, but this is a guy in the prime of his career, which I see outperforming someone like 35-year-old Paul Goldschmidt, who is being drafted as a top-25 fantasy baseball player this spring.
Over the last two seasons, Olson ranks sixth in home runs (73), tied for fourth in RBI (214), and tied for 14th in runs (187). For good measure, his .252 isolated power in that time is tied for seventh among qualified hitters alongside Jose Ramirez. Of the six names in front of him in the ISO department, only Kyle Schwarber and Bryer Harper sport a lower ADP, with Harper's dropping due to injury.
The good news with Olson is his pristine production has long been backed by advanced data. He ranked in the 93rd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and barrel rate in 2022. As you can see, this has been a trend throughout his big-league career.
Olson should hit second or third for a Braves club that ranked third with 4.87 runs per game last season. He has excellent protection behind him, while his elite power will pad the HR and RBI areas once again. He might not hit for a high average and he lacks speed but he's an even better asset in OBP/OPS leagues due to a career 11.3% BB%.
Add in the fact that he's as durable as it gets, with just four games missed over the last three seasons and Olson should be able to outperform his prevailing ADP in the 2023 campaign.
Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP - 159.23 PRK - 16 OVRK - 156
Even on the heels of a career year in 2022, it feels Rowdy Tellez is being undervalued at his 159.23 ADP this spring.
There's never been anything to worry about when it came to power for the lefty-swinging Tellez, as he owns a career .226 isolated power, including a .242 mark last season on the back of 35 HR. It also appeared he was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball a season ago.
Despite the light-tower power and a quality 10.4% BB%, Tellez only posted a .219 batting average, .767 OPS, .327 wOBA, and wRC+. The obvious reason as to why he managed 35 HR yet was only 10% more productive than the league average at the plate was a minuscule .215 BABIP despite fantastic underlying metrics.
Tellez ranked the league's top 20% in several batted-ball categories yet hit .219. In fact, Tellez's .215 BABIP ranked 129th of 130 qualified hitters last season. If he can even approach his batted-ball profile from 2022 again this season, he's almost guaranteed to see significant increases in average, OBP, OPS, and wOBA, among other areas.
With huge power as his foundation, Tellez should be able to outperform his current ADP with increased batted-ball fortunes in 2023.
Seth Brown, Oakland Athletics
ADP - 208.10 PRK: 23 OVRK: 205
Seth Brown provides some defensive versatility to your fantasy roster in addition to likely outperforming some of his peers at higher ADPs at the first base position.
A late bloomer, Brown isn't your typical 30-year-old bat. After all, he's logged just 294 MLB games to this point but has combined for 45 HR and 15 SB across the last 261 of them. Brown has turned in a quality .225 ISO to this point in his career, while he ranked in the 90th percentile in barrel rate last season. It's clear he has significant power while he'll play nearly every day between first base and the outfield in 2023.
Brown's plate discipline was also an encouraging sign last season. His 26.3% K% ranked in the league's 19th percentile, but it was also an improvement over his 29% mark from 2021. Furthermore, Brown's walk rate moved from 7.5% in 2021 to 9.2% in 2022, good for a 60th percentile ranking. These are the types of improvements you like to see from hitters getting their first extended taste of big-league pitching.
Of course, it's not all rosy for Brown. His runs and RBI stats will take a hit on a weak A's ball club that ranked 29th in runs scored last season. The lefty-swinging Brown also struggles versus same-handed pitching, while his poor defense could take him out of games early, robbing him out of plate appearances in the process.
However, he should be a solid source of home runs and stolen bases, while ATC projects him to make almost 500 trips to the plate in 2023. However, he's entering just his second full MLB season. He has the upside to outperform his ADP based on his fantastic barrel figures since entering the league while roughly doubling the league average in that department last season. Remember, the bottom figure represents the league average from 2022.
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
ADP - 303.35 PRK: 30 OVRK: 282
Like Brown, Spencer Torkelson plays on a weak offense. In fact, the Tigers were the only team in baseball that scored fewer runs than the A's last season. That said, if his underlying metrics from a poor rookie season (on the surface) combined with his work this spring are any indication, he could be for a significant bounce-back sophomore campaign.
The 2020 first-overall pick predictably dominated with 30 home runs across three minor-league levels in his first professional season in 2021, finishing with 11 homers and a monstrous .293 ISO in 40 games at Triple-A that season. What wasn't predicted was a face-plant in his rookie MLB season as Torkelson hit just eight HR while hitting .203 across 110 games. He also spent 35 games back at Triple-A following his first-half struggles.
However, the Arizona State product also bested the league average in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. His .255 BABIP didn't help his overall numbers, but at least his .305 xwOBA was far superior to his .272 wOBA.
While spring training figures are always taken with a grain of salt, it's worth noting Torkelson's 96.7 mph average exit velocity ranks third among the 62 players who have seen at least 150 pitches this spring. Unfortunately, he's enduring more bad luck with only a .753 spring OPS and one home run to this point.
The key to his fantasy baseball value lies in his power combined with everyday playing time. It would be rather surprising to see anything but Torkelson beginning the season as the Tigers' everyday first baseman, judging by how hard he's hit the ball this spring. ATC projects 530 plate appearances for the 23-year-old, along with 17 home runs.
If he can capitalize on the wide-open spot at first base in Detroit with a bounce-back season, there's a good chance Torkelson will finish far better than the 30th-ranked first baseman in 2023.
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