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The tight end position has been a crapshoot all year, which even the seemingly dependable options like Zach Ertz, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews either hurt or failing to meet expectations. That has left the landscape as Travis Kelce and a whole bunch of other guys, which has amounted to a massive headache for fantasy players. However, we all have to find an option, and if you've made it this far without a clear solution at the position, then you might be looking for a white knight to fight your way to fantasy glory.
In this piece, we're going to look at the strength of schedule for tight ends from Week 13 - 16, as well as the target share and red zone opportunities that the tight ends are getting. By combining all of that information, I'll give you a list of tight ends that I feel should be targets for you to trade for or pick up on the waiver wire for the final weeks. Then, we'll trust the analytics and the schedule metrics and try and ride the acquisition to a fantasy championship.
I'm not going to tell you to go out and get Travis Kelce, who has an incredible playoff schedule, or Darren Waller, who has seen the second-most targets at the position over the last four weeks, because the players who have those guys aren't likely to move them. Similarly, not mentioning guys like Mark Andrews or Jonnu Smith isn't to say they are bad options, but simply that their playoff outlook isn't much better than their outlook has been for the regular season. Schedules listed are for Weeks 13 - 16 with rankings for fantasy points allowed to TEs in half-point PPR leagues.
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All Leagues
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
SCHEDULE: (KC - 7th, CAR - 21st, BUF - 28th, LAC - 29th)
Now could be a great time to float some buy-low offers for Fant coming off a disappointing performance in the loss to the Raiders. Fant was only able to haul in three passes for 18 yards as the Broncos put up 12 points. However, Fant was third on the team with seven targets in that game, which continues the trend of his recent usage. Since Week 6, he is 3rd on the team with 26 targets, which amount to 6.5 per game. In fact, Fant is 5th among all tight ends in targets over the past four weeks, so he has dependable usage. While he only has 1 Red zone target over that span, the Broncos had to put Albert Okwuegbunam on the IR. Considering the rookie was the team's leading red zone target, that can only be good news for Fant's red zone usage.
When you pair all of that with the schedule that you see above, it makes Fant an enticing option for the playoff run. It should be noted that the Bills will likely have Matt Milano back for that showdown, which will make them a slightly more imposing defense against tight ends, but certainly not one you need to avoid.
Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SCHEDULE: (BYE, MIN - 16th, ATL - 32nd, DET - 14th)
Gronk has a bye in week 13, which will make him tough for some teams to roster, but it also makes him an attractive trade target if you feel comfortable in your playoff seeding or might have a bye in that week (depending on how long you league's playoffs go). It doesn't get much better than Gronk's final three games, which are all matchups he can exploit.
Antonio Brown's arrival has put a small damper on Gronk's target total, but he still has the 9th-most targets at the position over the last four weeks. In fact, since Week 6, he leads the Bucs with 29 total targets, and his 5.8 targets per game trail only Chris Godwin in that span. Gronk is 4th on the team in targets since Antonio Brown has entered the lineup, but is 2nd on the team in Red Zone targets over those two games and tied for 1st on the team with 8 RZ targets since Week 6. Gronk does stay in to block on 20.9% of his snaps, which is high for a non-blocking tight end, but I believe that's balanced out by his Red Zone role and the matchups he will have in those final weeks.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
SCHEDULE: (NE - 3rd, ATL - 32nd, LV - 12th, DEN - 10th)
Hunter Henry's schedule isn't the strongest, and you will need to expect him to have a rough outing against the Patriots in Week 13; however, his role on this offense will certainly make him usable in the final two weeks, and he should explode in Week 14 against a bad Falcons secondary. With Denver going to have nothing to play for in Week 16, you may also not see the best effort from some of their veterans or may even see some starters rested as the Broncos angle for a higher draft pick, both of which could help Henry's chances of success in fantasy championships.
Over the last four weeks, Henry has run the 2nd-most routes of any tight end in football. He has only mustered the 7th most targets, but that's still a solid number, and the more that Henry is running routes, the more likely he is to be targeted, especially in games against Atlanta and Las Vegas where the Chargers can expect to need to score often. Since Week 6, Henry is 2nd on the Chargers in overall targets with 24 - or six per game - and is 2nd on the team in Red Zone targets, so the role is there for him to sustain success.
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers
SCHEDULE: (WAS - 25th, BUF - 28th, CIN - 31st, IND - 1st)
Let me introduce you to one of my favorite targets for the fantasy playoffs. Over the last four weeks, no tight end in all of football has run more routes than Ebron. He is running a route on a very strong 93.7% of all of his snaps and ranks 6th in the NFL in tight end targets over that time. Additionally, since Week 6, he is 4th on the Steelers with 29 targets or 5.8 per game and is tied for 1st on the team with 8 Red Zone targets. All of that tells me that he has a stable role on a pass-heavy team, and the red zone opportunities give him extra fantasy appeal.
To top it all off, you couldn't ask for much better matchups in Weeks 13-15. As I mentioned above, Matt Milano will likely be back for the Bills game, but that is still a defense that can be beat over the middle of the field, and the Steelers should be in the Red Zone often against Washington and Cincinnati, which should lead to touchdown opportunities for the big tight end. You may have to find an alternative option for your championship game, but our main priority is just getting to that moment, and I think Ebron is a great vehicle to take you there.
Evan Engram, New York Giants
SCHEDULE: (SEA - 9th, ARI - 8th, CLE - 19th, BAL - 13th)
Engram had two catches for 15 yards against the Eagles. The Giants receiving weapons are healthy, and he is not a consistent part of the offense. That's what the Engram owner might be thinking after Sunday, and it's exactly the thought process you should take advantage of. No tight end in all of football has seen more targets than Engram over the last four weeks. Additionally, his 35 total targets since Week 6 leads the Giants, and his seven targets per game trails only Sterling Shepard. He is 1st on the team with 5 Red Zone targets over that span, which gives him more value than his one touchdown on the season might suggest.
While the schedule above is not overly enticing, these are likely games where the Giants are going to have to score a lot to keep up. That means that, despite the relative strength of the Seahawks and Cardinals, Engram should see a fair number of targets which will raise his fantasy floor, and then set himself up as a strong option against the Browns and Ravens. Now is the perfect time to use his lack of production as a buying opportunity since few tight ends have the role and opportunity share that Engram does.
12-team leagues
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
SCHEDULE: (GB - 5th, NO - 26th, ARI - 8th, DAL - 23rd)
Since coming back from injury, Goedert has had seven targets but saw six against the Giants after the bye, which is more indicative of his role on the team. Despite the Eagles having a full complement of receiving weapons healthy for that game, Goedert was second on the team in targets and that's even with him missing some time as he was evaluated for a head injury. The tight end is a crucial part of the Eagles offense and while Goedert's injury has prevented there from being a ton of stats on why he should be a target for you for the playoffs, that talent he's shown in previous years and two extremely enticing matchups against the Saints and Cowboys have me buying in.
It is important to note that we should keep an eye on Zach Ertz, who should be returning from IR during the fantasy playoffs. Now, he wasn't productive even when healthy this year, but he was running routes and seeing targets, so his return could put a damper on Goedert's final few weeks and is the main reason he is not in the above section.
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
SCHEDULE: (ATL - 32nd, PHI - 27th, KC- 7th, MIN - 16th)
Jared Cook's playoff schedule is among the best at the position, which means his role is the only thing that keeps him in this middle category. Despite being 2nd on the team in targets since Week 6, that amount to only 16 total or four per game, which trails Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. That is also good for only 14th among all tight ends. He is also 3rd on the team with two Red Zone targets since Thomas has been back. While Cook is running routes on 96.2% of his snaps, he's 12th among all tight ends in routes run over the last four weeks, which means the opportunity simply isn't there to make him a sure thing in 10-team leagues.
Another big question mark is the health of Drew Brees. With multiple rib fractures and a punctured lung, it's entirely possible that Brees misses the rest of the fantasy season. If that were the case, it's feasible that the Saints would do what they did in the 2nd half against the 49ers and run the ball far more, using the running backs out of the backfield as well. In that game, Cook saw only two targets, catching none of them. The matchups are strong enough to keep him on the radar and possibly entice you to offer a lowball trade to a concerned manager right now, but I wouldn't put all of your eggs in the Cooks basket.
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
SCHEDULE: (JAX - 29th, TB - 22nd, CHI - 18th, NO - 26th)
Few tight ends have as good a playoff schedule as Irv Smith Jr., which is why he finds himself in this category. In addition to the above defenses having weaknesses against tight ends, three of them are also top-5 against the run. What that means is that the Vikings will be less able to ride Dalvin Cook to victory in games against the Bucs, Bears, and Saints. This will force Kirk Cousins into more passing situations, which could lead to more targets for the second-year tight end who is becoming a bigger part of this offense.
Since Week 6, Smith Jr. only has 10 total targets, 3.3 per game, but he left one game early with an injury and then missed one game, so those should be taken with a grain of salt. Over that time, he is the clear 3rd option in the passing game, but it also 1st on the team with 4 Red Zone targets, which adds to his overall value. Given his lack of consistent production, rolling Smith Jr. out in 12-team leagues may seem risky, but I think he's a low-cost add who could reward you big during your fantasy playoffs.
15-team leagues and streamers
Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears
SCHEDULE: (DET - 14th, HOU- 17th, MIN- 16th, JAX - 29th)
Graham is another player you can likely get for little to no cost after he recorded zero catches on two targets in the loss to the Vikings on Monday night. However, that game should be treated as more of an anomaly, especially since the Vikings are far worse against wide receivers than tight ends, which may have impacted the Bears' gameplan (although it didn't really seem like they had one). Since Week 6, Graham is 4th on the team with 29 targets, which is 5.8 per game, and is 2nd on the team with 3 Red Zone targets. His 21 targets over the last four weeks are 9th-best at the tight end position, and his 95 routes are 6th.
What keeps him in the 12-team conversation with his schedule is his quarterback play and the fact that Cole Kmet has been cutting into snaps. As it stands, I find it hard to trust Graham outside of the deepest leagues, but you're not going to be able to find a tight end with this kind of schedule, running that many routes and seeing that many targets. He's absolutely a deep league option with some upside to win you a playoff matchup if he hauls in a touchdown.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
SCHEDULE: (BAL - 13th, CIN - 31st, PHI - 27th)
Dalton Schultz is more of a streaming option, even in deeper formats, but he's somebody that should absolutely be on your playoff radar. Since Wee 6, he is 4th on the team with 24 targets, which is good for six a game. Over the last four games, he's 12th at the position in targets (only one behind Mark Andrews) and 10th in routes run (11 ahead of Jonnu Smith). The Cowboys haven't had great quarterback play, but Andy Dalton is competent enough to keep Dalton afloat as a deep-league option with that level of targets and routes run.
While I'm not too keen on rolling Schultz out against the Ravens in Week 13, I love the idea of using him in deep leagues against the Bengals in Week 14 and the Eagles in Week 16 for the championship. The Week 15 matchup against the 49ers' 4th ranked tight end defense is one you'll want to avoid, but I think Shultz could be a sneaky option to get you over the hump if you've been rolling out guys like Logan Thomas or Robert Tonyan in your leagues.
Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks
SCHEDULE: (NYG - 11th, NYJ - 24th, WAS - 25th, CAR- 21st)
I figured I'd end with the ultimate sleeper. Since Week 6, Jacob Hollister is 5th on the Seahawks with 13 targets (one behind Greg Olsen), but he is 2nd on the team with 4 Red Zone targets. What intrigues me the most is that, before last week, had seen an increasing number of snaps and even played more than both Greg Olsen and Will Dissly against the Buffalo Bills, ending that game with 60 yards on 5 catches. Then he played only six total snaps against the Rams. I haven't been able to find anything in writing about why the trends over the past three weeks so drastically changed in that one game, but it's certainly concerning and why Hollister only appears here as a streaming option and a risky one at that.
However, with Greg Olsen still battling foot issues, and Hollister having had success with Russell Wilson in the past, I believe this is a situation that bears watching. The matchups against the Jets, Washington, and Panthers are strong, and if we see Hollister go back to his increased snap and target share, he could be a surprise option for deep league players. I wouldn't go ahead and roster him just yet, but I would keep a close eye on the snap share Thursday night against Arizona and see if Hollister's role reverts back to what it had been.
Rest of Season Rankings
Half-PPR leagues
- Travis Kelce
- Darren Waller
- Mark Andrews
- T.J. Hockenson
- Hunter Henry
- Evan Engram
- Noah Fant
- Hayden Hurst
- Rob Gronkowski
- Eric Ebron
- Jared Cook
- Jonnu Smith
- Austin Hooper
- Dallas Goedert
- Irv Smith Jr.
- Tyler Higbee
- Jimmy Graham
- Mike Gesicki
- Zach Ertz
- Logan Thomas
- Jordan Reed
- Greg Olsen
- Dalton Schultz
- George Kittle
- Robert Tonyan
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