6 years agoNew York Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton, who was 11-6 with a 3.76 ERA last season, striking out 208 batters in 160 1/3 innings. His FIP was also strong at 3.23 and this season was coming off of a 2016 season where his FIP was 2.80 and a 2017 season where his FIP was 2.61. Paxton also only allowed 134 hits last season (including a no-hitter in Toronto against the Blue Jays), seeing his WHIP fall to a career-best 1.10. The most impressive trait for Paxton is his strikeout ability, as he was seventh in swinging-strike rate among pitchers with 160 innings thrown in 2017 at 14.3%. He also led baseball in swing percentage (52.4%) and allowed just 82.1% contact in the strike zone (8th in baseball). Paxton saw his ERA go from 2.98 in 2017 to 3.76 in 2018 (more on that in a moment), but his xFIP (3.02) was actually better than in 2017 (3.25). His K-BB% of 25.7 was fifth in baseball last season and he had two pitches that were top-15 value (fastball and cutter), as well as a plus pitch with his curveball.  An issue for Paxton is his fly ball rate, as he allowed a 41.1% fly ball rate last season (13th-worst of those that pitched at least 160 innings), up from 30.1% in 2016 and 32.7% in 2017. He also allowed a career-worst 34% hard-hit ball rate and his ground ball rate was 39.6%, his worst ratio as a professional. While some may look at Paxton's lack of work due to injuries as a negative, this is still a 30-year-old that has not even pitched 600 big league innings. Signed through the 2020 season, look for Paxton to ink a long-term deal with the Yankees over the next two seasons and to flash SP2 potential with the Yankees. He will constantly be put in a good position for wins, but needs to monitor his fly-ball rate in New York.--Chris Zolli