RADIO
Joe Nicely digs into his Horse for the Course for The AT&T Byron Nelson, an under the radar PGA DFS selection for this week's DraftKings tournament.
Webb Simpson turned The Players Championship into a bit of a snoozefest with his dominant play last week. In PGA DFS we must adapt and that's certainly the situation we are facing this week. We go from perhaps the strongest field of the year at The Players Championship to one of the weakest at the AT&T Byron Nelson. We go from having 49 of the world's Top 50 golfers in action last week, to having only five of the Top 25 players in the world being scheduled to play this week. To put it kindly, there are some unfamiliar names in the DFS player pool this week. As if dealing with a spotty field weren't enough, the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played on a completely different golf course this year. We will have no course history or past results to work with this week.
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value. Due to this week's tournament being played on a new course, we are forced to veer away from our normal course history strategy. This week's column will attempt to identify the best DFS plays available.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club - Par 71 - 7,380 Yards
There are more questions than answers surrounding Trinity Forest Golf Club. This is the first PGA Tour event held at the relatively new course located in Dallas, Texas. Most of the field will be seeing the track for the first time this week. Once a Dallas landfill, Trinity Forest was designed by the well-respected Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore design team. There is scarcely a tree on the property and the rolling terrain gives off a distinct links vibe. It is hard to know what to expect this week, but the belief in the golf world is that Trinity Forest was constructed with aspirations of one day holding a major championship, so I look for it to play fairly difficult. Word on the street is that the PGA Tour has been heavily watering Trinity Forest this week in order to slow it down for the pros. In the absence of past course data, I always try to identify players with solid tee to green skills.
The Horse
Jordan Spieth (DraftKings - $11,900 & FanDuel - $12,900 )
The horse this week isn't a very controversial pick. Jordan Spieth is by far the class of this week's field. He has the overall game that we are looking for, ranking second in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green on the PGA Tour. Spieth has been effective with the driver, ranking 20th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. His iron play has also been tremendous, Spieth ranks ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach The Green. Even with all these amazing ball striking stats, Spieth is surprisingly winless this year. The culprit can be found in one particular area...putting. Once Spieth's strong suit, he has frankly been horrible with the flatstick this year. He ranks a dismal 200th in Total Putting in 2018.
While there is no course history to draw from this week, Spieth has a very strong connection to Trinity Forest Golf Club...he is a member. In addition to his membership, Spieth's longtime coach Cameron McCormick is the head PGA Professional at Trinity Forest. So not only is Spieth the best player in this week's field, but it's safe to assume that he is way more familiar with the course than any other player that is in this event. This type of course knowledge is an unbelievable advantage, especially for a player of Spieth's caliber.
Playing Spieth this week does have a few drawbacks. He is by far the most expensive player on both sites and playing Spieth definitely limits what we can do with our remaining salary cap. Despite his price, I believe Spieth will be extremely popular. This type of tournament lends itself to a "Stars and Scrubs" lineup construction and tons of people will start their lineups with the #3 ranked player in the world. If you spend up for Spieth this week, you really need him to win the tournament to justify his price tag. He is the huge Vegas favorite this week at 4-1 odds.
I believe Spieth has an extremely good chance to pick up his first win of 2018 this week and a Webb Simpson-type dominating performance is possible. Though he is the highest priced player on the board, the argument can be made that Spieth is actually underpriced considering all that he brings to the table. If he can get any type of momentum going with the putter, we could see another blowout this week.
The Ponies
Jimmy Walker (DK - $9,500 & FD - $11,300 )
I very nearly made Jimmy Walker this week's horse, but just couldn't ignore Jordan Spieth. I love the direction Walker's game is trending. The talented veteran seemed on the verge of a career breakthrough when he won the 2016 PGA Championship, but then fell victim to a mysterious illness that was eventually diagnosed as Lyme's Disease. Walker struggled mightily in 2017, but seems to be strong and healthy this season.
The first signs of life in Walker's game came back in February at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am when he finished in a tie for 8th. Walker then played solid golf at both The Honda Classic and The Valspar Championship on very difficult golf courses. A 20th place finish at The Masters has seemed to really kickstart Walker and solidify his return to full health. Since his excellent finish at Augusta National, Walker has finished 4th at the Valero Texas Open and tied for 2nd at The Players Championship.
Walker has the type of complete game that we are looking for this week. His $9,500 DraftKings price tag is slightly higher than I'd like to see, but it is understandable with the lack of depth in this field. It is possible to pair him with Jordan Spieth in aggressive GPP lineups, but there isn't much salary left to work with. I like using Walker as an anchor in cash lineups this week.
Keith Mitchell (DK - $7,800 & FD - $9,200 )
Keith Mitchell might not be a name that is well known to casual golf fans, but he has been making his presence felt on the PGA Tour this year. The 26-year-old bomber is 4th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee on the PGA Tour in 2018, but we have been seeing other areas of Mitchell's game grow over the past few months. His coming out party was a second place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which he followed up with a T-6 at the Houston Open.
Mitchell has the ability to go low as evidenced by recent opening round 67's at both Quail Hollow and TPC Sawgrass, two very difficult golf courses. Mitchell has struggled with stringing multiple rounds together and has a bad habit of following very good rounds with very bad rounds. While we aren't overly familiar with Trinity Forest, we do know that there isn't much trouble off the tee. Mitchell's length could end up being a huge advantage this week.
When we take into account the quality of this week's field and Mitchell's $7,800 price tag, we have a green light GPP play. Mitchell's volatility might make us feel apprehensive, but I'm always willing to take a chance on a player with GPP winning upside, especially in an event with a weaker field. Mitchell has the potential to pile up fantasy points on a course that should offer plenty of reward for this ability off the tee. I will fire the young bomber up in large field GPPs this week.
Hunter Mahan (DK - $6,900 & FD - $8,100 )
It may seem like forever ago, but Hunter Mahan was once golf's "next big thing". It's easy to forget that Mahan was ranked number 4 in the world and represented the United States in both Ryder and Presidents Cups. The six-time PGA Tour winner has experienced golf's incredible highs and devastating lows. To put it kindly, Mahan has struggled over the past few years. He made a change from his longtime swing coach over a year ago and is finally starting to show signs of life, making 8 of 13 cuts this season.
Like Jordan Spieth, Mahan is a member of Trinity Forest Golf Club. In the absence of any course history to draw from this week, I'm happy to look for any type of "home-court advantage" that we can find. Mahan makes his home in Dallas and rivals Spieth for level of familiarity on this golf course. While Mahan has not seriously contended in any tournaments this year, he is consistently making cuts and he ranks a respectable 30th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 17th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Obviously, we are focusing on Mahan because of his bargain DraftKings price tag of $6,900. Unlike many other weeks of the PGA Tour season, the relatively weak field might not allow us to play it safe with our lineups this week. By utilizing Mahan's cheap salary, we are able to squeeze both Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker into GPP lineups. At this price range, we are looking for a made cut. Mahan offers a reasonable chance to do so through his familiarity with Trinity Forest and his ability with the putter.
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