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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/23/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We must be butter, because we are on a roll! My last two NRFI articles have gone a combined 7-1 on picks, which has resulted in a tidy profit and renewed confidence in the process.
Today we have a lot of early and late afternoon games, so get your wagers in as soon as you read this! I'm sticking with four more picks today, with three NRFIs and one YRFI in an elite offensive environment.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Wednesday, July 23, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 23, 2025)
- San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves: 12:15 pm
- Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs: 2:20 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners: 3:40 pm
- Athletics at Texas Rangers: 8:05 pm
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SFG: Justin Verlander
- ATL: Spencer Strider
Our first NRFI comes just after Noon EST as the Braves host the Giants. Perhaps this pitching matchup would have been more compelling two years ago when Strider was widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball and Verlander had yet to succumb to Father Time, but it's still a pretty good one anyway.
Spencer Strider first 4 starts of 2025:
19 IP
5.68 ERA
9 K/9
2.3 HR/9Since:
48.2 IP
2.89 ERA
11.6 K/9
0.5 HR/9 pic.twitter.com/rd1yB0BIY4— Brady Penn (@bradypenn21) July 19, 2025
Strider has been rolling lately, looking more like his former self and extending his NRFI record to 9-3 on the year. He will look to quiet a Giants offense that erupted yesterday against fill-in starter Davis Daniel.
Meanwhile, Verlander will have to navigate a very tough top of the Braves order with Jurickson Profar, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Matt Olson set to occupy spots one through three. I won't lie, I am a bit nervous about that side of the matchup, but Verlander has been stout in the early innings this season with a 12-4 NRFI record, despite turning in relatively average numbers everywhere else.
We don't have too many matchups between top arms today, so I am going to take a shot on this one and hope that we get some vintage Verlander today, combined with Strider's current form, to cash a scoreless first frame.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs YRFI (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
The pitchers matter here, but less than usual, as we have a "wind blowing out at Wrigley" situation that trumps everything else. Yes, we have winds over 10 mph forecast for this one, and they are going to be blowing straight out to center field. There simply isn't another ballpark in baseball that is affected by wind more than Wrigley, and we've seen these games pop off more often than not when we get these types of conditions.
Now, back to the pitchers and why they sweeten this bet a bit more. Seth Lugo is a badly overrated pitcher whose underlying numbers are much worse than his surface stats. He's been vulnerable to the long ball with a 1.43 HR/9 this season and is coming off one of his worst outings in the last month. Regression is starting to catch up to him, and now he has to face a Murderer's Row of hitters at the top of the Cubs lineup.
Colin Rea has given up his share of homers this season, too, with a 1.48 HR/9. While the Royals are 0-10 on YRFIs over their last 10 games, this is a perfect situation for them to break out of their funk if they can elevate the ball against Rea.
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Quinn Priester
- SEA: Luis Castillo
If I had to rank my picks in terms of my confidence, this would be my number one pick. Both offenses are mired in YRFI slumps, going 0-10 on YRFIs over their last 10 games. Anytime we get two offenses that are trending down that badly, I am interested in an NRFI.
You and everyone you know should be talking about Quinn Priester pic.twitter.com/myUFWobqmW
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 19, 2025
But the pitching here is also quite good, as the Brewers are rolling out their latest successful reclamation project, Quinn Priester. While Priester is just 8-5 on NRFIs this season, he's in top form, coming off six scoreless innings against the Dodgers with 10 strikeouts!
On the Mariners' side, it's Luis Castillo toeing the rubber. While Castillo's overall numbers aren't anything special, his NRFI stats are fantastic as he is 19-1 on NRFIs this season without a single home run allowed in the first inning.
Both offenses are trending down in the first, while both pitchers are trending up, making this a smash spot for an NRFI today.
Athletics at Texas Rangers NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- ATH: JP Sears
- TEX: Patrick Corbin
I am well aware that neither of these pitchers qualifies as a shut-down ace; however, this is a great case where NRFI stats matter, and we can use them to get an edge. Sears has an elite 19-1 NRFI record this season with a 0.80 WHIP, and Corbin has been nearly as impressive with a 16-2 NRFI record and a 0.94 WHIP.
Both pitchers are riding solid NRFI streaks, too, with Sears sitting at five straight NRFIs and Corbin having piled up six straight.
I wouldn't trust either pitcher to throw five or six scoreless frames tonight, but I do think we can get a scoreless first inning out of both of them at a very fair price.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Pirates, Mariners, Brewers, Royals (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Braves, Guardians, Reds (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Yankees, Guardians, Cubs, White Sox (4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Orioles (.364)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Angels (.457)
Conclusion
After a 7-1 heater across the last two slates, we’re back with four more premium first-inning wagers—three MLB NRFI bets and one well-earned YRFI based on ideal hitting conditions at Wrigley.
Whether you’re chasing elite arms like Castillo or leaning into wind-driven offense, today’s card has something for every NRFI betting enthusiast.
Don’t forget to check the weather and lineups before locking in your picks. For the sharpest edge in NRFI bets today and daily betting insights, keep this page bookmarked. Good luck, friends, let’s stay hot!
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