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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 8/5/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
My last round of NRFIs was on Saturday, when we had another disappointing finish of 2-3. Thankfully, we at least smashed our YRFI pick in the Cincinnati and Atlanta Game in Bristol just in the nick of time before it got suspended.
We're still yearning for one of those cleaner days across the board, and Tuesday presents another excellent opportunity to do so. With multiple aces taking the mound, we will be dishing out our four NRFIs and again finding our spot and taking a swing on one YRFI.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, August 5, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (August 5, 2025)
- Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers: 6:40 pm
- Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox: 7:10 pm
- Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels: 9:38 pm
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks: 9:40 pm
- Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners: 9:40 pm
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIN: Zebby Matthews
- DET: Chris Paddack
We start the Tuesday slate with a classic revenge spot with Paddack set to face off against the team that traded him less than a week ago. Paddack has had his struggles this season with a 4.77 ERA, but the Twins have struggled to score a bit since the deadline, with 11 in 3 games.
Matthews' ERA is bloated at 5.67, but his FIP sits at 2.96. So he is doing good things when it comes to controlling what he can control.
Chris Paddack's first start as a Tiger was a good one pic.twitter.com/EWchy8EXaz
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 30, 2025
Neither team has been effective in the first inning of late, with the Twins scoring twice in their last 10 and the Tigers scoring just once. Paddack has had his struggles to begin games, but with the depleted Twins lineup, he should have a good chance to come out clean. Plus, Zebby Matthews has a four-game streak of not allowing a run in the first.
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox NRFI (-136 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- KC: Ryan Bergert
- BOS: Garrett Crochet
Crochet has been one of the premier horses this season on the mound, and he should own a Royals lineup that has scored the fewest runs against left-handed pitching this season. Bergert has pitched respectably for the Royals in 35 2/3 innings this year, holding a 2.78 ERA despite an average strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate.
Crochet is third among starters in strikeout rate at 31%, but he cranks it up a notch to start games and has a 41.6% strikeout rate in the first inning, the best in baseball.
Garrett Crochet's MLB ranks:
IP: 1st
Ks: 1st
ERA: 4th@RedSox ace. pic.twitter.com/8YIrnRASYP— Mike Monaco (@MikeMonaco_) July 27, 2025
Both teams have scored in the first inning in just three of their last 10 games. Bergert is a perfect 7-for-7 in not allowing a run in the first, and we'll hope it continues.
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels NRFI (-128 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TB: Ryan Pepiot
- LAA: Jose Soriano
Two good pitchers in Pepiot and Soriano face off in this one. Pepiot is fresh off a start where he got tattooed by the Yankees for seven runs in four innings, but has still had a good season overall. Soriano is one of baseball's most prolific groundball pitchers, leading the league in ground-ball rate at 66.7%.
He also produces more grounders to begin games, increasing the rate to 70%.
José Soriano, Nasty 92mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/gC2yMNeYQF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 31, 2025
Like the Royals and Red Sox, both teams have scored in the first inning three times in their previous 10 games. The Red Sox have hit two homers, but Soriano suppresses homers with his sinker and owns the third-lowest HR/9 (0.47) among qualified starters.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-142 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CHW: Davis Martin
- SEA: Bryan Woo
It's bump day for Bryan Woo, who has been lights out this season. He faces a White Sox lineup that is quietly sixth in the league in runs scored since July. And Woo is coming off arguably his worst start of the season in Sacramento, where he allowed a season-high-tying five runs and matched his career high with four home runs allowed.
On the other side, Martin has pitched serviceably for the White Sox this year with a 3.84 ERA in 91 2/3 innings.
Bryan Woo has gone 6+ innings in all 21 of his starts. pic.twitter.com/ve86VAvUii
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) July 31, 2025
The Mariners have just a .231 on-base percentage in the first inning over their last 10 games and have scored just twice. The White Sox have scored three times, but against Woo in Seattle, where he's been nearly untouchable, it's a great bounce-back spot for the stud right-hander.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks YRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SD: Yu Darvish
- ARI: Ryne Nelson
This is where we will take our pick with a YRFI with two good lineups. The Padres, especially, have been strong in the first inning, scoring five times in their last 10 games, with a .375 batting average and .432 on-base percentage. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are more solid than standout, with a .256 average and .341 OBP while scoring three times in their last 10 games.
Four of the Padres' top five hitters in the order are hitting .292 or better in the last week of action, with Jackson Merrill most notably catching fire with a .348/.385/.652 line.
Jackson Merrill drives in a run for the sixth consecutive game, following Manny Machado's double with a two-bagger of his own!
📺 #MLBNShowcase presented by @goodyear pic.twitter.com/Ppybxzx7lr
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 5, 2025
The 38-year-old Darvish is coming off his best start of the season with seven scoreless against the Mets after spending most of the season on the IL. While it's early, the strikeout rate has dropped over six percentage points from last year.
Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he's had a strong year with a 3.20 ERA in 95.2 innings. He throws his fastball more than 60% of the time, and with how much contact the Padres make, he could have trouble in the opening frame.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Rockies, Tigers, Rangers, Cardinals (90%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Pirates, Guardians, Athletics (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Pirates (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Athletics (.417)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Athletics (.463)
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