On The Rebound - Three Goalies Who Will Bounce Back in 2018-19

A top-tier goaltender can go a long way to helping you win your fantasy league. As true as that is, the glaring issue is that they are about as predictable as a bouncing puck from the other end of the ice. Sorry Vesa Toskala, we still remember. The upside is that every year there are several goaltenders that vastly outperform their draft position. Take Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, or Frederick Andersen last season for example. Each of them finished in the top five for wins and saves, despite falling outside of the top 10 goalies in most drafts.

This unpredictability can make drafting a goalie in the early rounds a risky proposition. Luckily, there are options later in the draft that could provide similar value. These goalies are due to recover from a lackluster performance last season.

When you start looking for a bounce-back goalie candidate, a great place to start is with the talent around them. With wins being as valuable as they are, a decent goalie can become an important fantasy asset with a strong team in front of them. This is especially vital when a goalie lands on a new team, or there is a significant change to the roster. The other main factor to consider is the goalie's save percentage and how it relates to their career average. It is possible that a one year dip in save percentage is a sign that the netminder is on the decline, but more often than not, a corresponding rise in save percentage is on its way. With this in mind, here are three netminders where it is safe to say that shots from the point will not be the only rebounds they will be looking at this season.

Save on the Rebound!

Cam Talbot (G, EDM)
Last season was, by and large, the worst season of Cam Talbot's five-year career. His .908 save percentage was the lowest of his career and marks the only time he has finished a season with a save percentage lower than .915. He also recorded more losses (31) and allowed more goals (188) than any other campaign. Simply put, it was a year he would like to forget, and fantasy owners would prosper if they managed to do the same. It is far more likely that Talbot returns to his career average save percentage of .918 and Connor McDavid leads the Oilers back to playoff contention. This is the same goalie that led the league in wins and saves in 2016-17, and he has not suddenly forgotten how to play net. Talbot can be had at a discount in drafts this year, leaving savvy owners a great opportunity to scoop up value at the goalie position.

Matt Murray (G, PIT)
A plethora of injuries to go along with a .907 save percentage and 2.92 goals against average was not the type of season Matt Murray was hoping for. Murray was trying to step out from behind Marc-Andre Fleury's shadow in his first year as the unquestioned starter, but he struggled to stay healthy. The fact that he still recorded 27 wins despite his inconsistent season is a testament to the talent around him and a reason to expect better days are ahead. The 24-year-old netminder has displayed more than enough skill with his career .917 save percentage and .923 playoff save percentage to give confidence that he can return to form now that he is fully healthy. Murray was an important part of two Stanley Cup runs for Pittsburgh and he is coming off of a longer offseason than he is accustomed to. This is all setting him up for what could be his best regular season to date.

Jake Allen (G, STL)
Have you noticed the trend yet? An undisputed starting goalie that is coming off a career-low save percentage season and is playing for what should be a strong team. The bounce back may have been more obvious for Talbot and Murray, but it holds true for Jake Allen as well. In Allen's three years as a starter, he holds a .913 save percentage, which is a fair bit better than his .906 mark from 2017-18. That dip in save percentage is also the reason why he only won 48% of his starts last season, as opposed to winning 57% of his starts during his first two seasons. It can be the difference between waiver wire fodder and a solid fantasy contributor. With the offseason acquisitions of Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bozak, and David Perron the Blues are a deeper, more skilled team which should translate to better play in front of Allen. Accompanied by potentially the best Blues roster he has played with, Allen is primed for a solid season now that he has returned from dealing with back spasms that limited his work in the preseason.