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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 16 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for five players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
Happy Holidays everyone! I love how fantasy playoffs correspond with one of the best times of the year. This week, we have some special Pie Shop picks for the 25th. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we selected five players and finished 1-4.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
We have matchups on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday this week as we head into the fantasy playoffs. In this article, I select players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 16 Pie Shop.
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Picks (21-18)
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Bills @ Chargers, Saturday 6:00 PM MST/8:00 PM EST
What a brutal stretch of games for Diggs. It's not just a result of last week's ground-heavy attack, as in four of his last five games he has finished outside of the top 45 receivers for fantasy. In those four games, he has failed to crack 50 yards in each.
A matchup against an abysmal Chargers defense couldn’t come at a better time for the veteran WR. Diggs is bound for a bounce-back, and the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to the WR position over the last seven games. I expect Josh Allen to get his best friend the ball after only passing it 15 times last week.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Colts @ Falcons, Sunday 11:00 AM MST/1:00 PM EST
It would be the most Arthur Smith thing to unleash Bijan Robinson in another plus matchup after he destroyed the fantasy playoff dreams of many. In a game against arguably the worst run defense in the league (in the rain as well), Bijan only touched the ball eight times for 14 yards and a fumble.
If you managed to survive that catastrophe, you are gifted another amazing matchup. The Colts are allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns, the seventh-most rushing yards, and fifth-most receptions to the position. This game should be a huge bounce-back for the rookie back. I expect him to get back on the RB1 track and open the Pie Shop for the eighth time this season.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Raiders @ Chiefs, Monday 11:00 AM MST/1:00 PM EST
Pacheco is back just in time for this Chiefs team to find its footing. The Chiefs' offense has looked like a skeleton of itself this whole season. Surprisingly, it looks like their best bet at success is leaning on the run game and their elite defense.
This is the perfect match for that as the Raiders have scored zero and 63 points in back-to-back weeks. I expect against a great defense, the Raiders will be a lot closer to zero than 63 in this one. As a result of the game script, Pacheco should be heavily involved. Plus, the Raiders are allowing over 100 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns a game to opposing RBs.
A.J. Brown (WR, PHI)
Giants @ Eagles, Monday 2:30 PM MST/4:30 PM EST
It’s time for Brown to have a massive week. He has seen 10 or more targets in each of his last three games and has not scored a touchdown. He now faces a Giants secondary that leans on young safeties that do not have the experience or size to compete with Brown.
This Eagles offense needs to find its groove again, and a divisional date with the Giants is just what the doctor ordered. If they keep their foot on the gas all game, Brown could have a career day. It’s always a gamble for touchdowns between DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and the Brotherly Shove, but it’s time Brown bounced back.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Ravens @ 49ers, Monday 6:15 PM MST/8:15 PM EST
We get it, this 49ers team is incredible. Watching a team with this amount of talent and an elite coach is truly awesome to see. Along with Christian McCaffrey, seeing Deebo’s dynamic skill set in this offense is a perfect fit.
Deebo has seven touchdowns in his last three games (five receiving and two rushing). He is on fire and is the wild card that Kyle Shanahan likes to play in big games. It doesn’t get bigger than a Christmas night matchup that could be a Super Bowl preview.
When the stakes are highest, Deebo dominates. No disrespect to the Ravens' defense, which has been excellent all year, but Deebo is a different beast. Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Samuel will find a way to continue rolling through the fantasy playoffs.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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