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Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12 of the NFL season and your 2020 survivor leagues.
The referees have gotten out of hand. It seems like every single play there's a defensive holding, illegal contact, or pass interference. Even if it's third-and-20 and the ball is thrown to the right side of the field, but a hold is called on the left side, that gives the offense a first down. It's ridiculous. Let the players play. This was the sequence of plays during the Raiders drive to take the lead Sunday night in the fourth quarter; defensive pass interference in the end zone, run but then there was an offside and unsportsmanlike on the defense, false start, run, two minute warning. When Patrick Mahomes got the ball, they went right down, no flag was called. That's how football should be. There is sometimes no flow because of the all the dumb flags. Defensive holding and illegal contact should be five-yard penalties but not an automatic first down.
Anyway, as for Week 11, underdogs went 8-6 against the spread. There were six upsets, none bigger than the Cowboys beating the Vikings as seven-point dogs. That did major damage in survivor pools.
Week 12 kicks off with two Thanksgiving games after the Ravens and Steelers were postponed due to COVID. No teams are on bye so it's a full slate of all 32 teams.
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Survivor League Week 12
Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 12; Packers -8.5 vs. Bears, Dolphins -7 @ Jets, Rams -7 vs. 49ers, Browns -6.5 @ Jaguars, Giants -6 @ Bengals, and Saints -6 @ Broncos
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.
I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 12
Browns -6.5 @ Jaguars
While I don't think Cleveland can blow anyone out because how their offense functions, they should take care of business here. Jacksonville has lost nine a row, their offense and defense are statistically near the bottom of the league and they average one takeaway per game. Quarterback Mike Glennon will be getting his first start in three years. The Browns are third in opponent yards per play over the last three and are tied for third in takeaways.
Jacksonville has been faring better against the run, but Cleveland has the two-headed back of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They will wear down the Jaguars Defense en route to another sloppy win.
Browns 24 - Jaguars 13
Packers -8.5 vs. Bears
This is a very simple write-up. If the Packers score 24 points, they are going to win. It's that simple. The Bears are averaging 19 points per game, 31st in the league. They haven't scored more than 23 since Week 3. Meanwhile, Green Bay averages the third-most points with 30.8. This is the teams first matchup of the year. It's one Aaron Rodgers historically owns. The Packers are 14-4 against Chicago since 2010.
Packers 30 - Bears 14
Rams -7 vs. 49ers
The Rams are off a major win on Monday night against the Bucs while the 49ers are off a bye. They've lost three in a row though and their record stands at 4-6. They are so banged up. The Niners already beat the Rams earlier this year so this is a revenge spot.
The Rams Defense is number one in yards per play, fifth in third down defense, and they force turnovers. Plus, you have Aaron Donald constantly putting pressure on the quarterback.
Every time you bet the Rams you have to ask, is the weather okay and will Jared Goff be pressured? Game is in L.A. so nothing to worry about the weather and the Niners don't possess a real pass rush with all their injuries.
Rams 26 - 49ers 21
Saints -6 @ Broncos
New Orleans should have zero problem against the Broncos. Taysom Hill will have more confidence after his first start and their defense should stifle Drew Lock.
UPDATE: All of the Broncos quarterbacks - Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Blake Bortles, Jeff Driskel - are ineligible to play due to COVID-19. Wide receiver Kendall Hinton is expected to be he Broncos quarterback this week.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid
Dolphins -7 @ Jets
The Jets are running out of chances to get their only win of the year. They have home games against the Dolphins and Raiders, then travel to Seattle and the Rams, before finishing off with the Browns and Patriots. The Jets have actually played better in recent weeks. In their last three, they are 16th in yards per play, first in red zone touchdown percentage, fourth on defense and first in third down defense. They've scored 27 and 28 with Joe Flacco under center. He's thrown five touchdowns to two picks. They should have defeated New England and had a shot late against the Chargers.
The Dolphins were the hottest team until they lost in Denver. What's even going on with the Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick situation? Their offense is 31st in yards per play in the last three Their is their second road game in a row in another cold city.
Wouldn't it be something if the Jets beat Adam Gase's old team.
UPDATE: Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) is expected to miss this game, and Sam Darnold is expected to make his return and start.
Jets 23 - Dolphins 21
Giants -6 @ Bengals
If you've made it this far in your survivor pool, do you really want to put your faith in the Giants? They've looked a lot better, including Daniel Jones, but he can be so sloppy. This is also way too many points to lay.
Giants 23 - Bengals 21
Best Bets for Week 12
- Jets +7 vs. Dolphins
- Panthers +4 @ Vikings - It looks like Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey will be back for this one. They always play hard and their defense looked great Sunday.
- Cowboys -3 vs. Washington - Dallas seems like they're back on track after Sunday's win against Minnesota. This is a revenge spot after Washington not only beat Dallas some weeks ago, but also knocked Andy Dalton out.
Running Totals
- Last week: 2-1
- 2020 season total: 18-15
- 2019 season total: 23-26-2
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