NFL Playoff Picture - Clinching Scenarios and Which Games Matter for Week 18

January 7, 2024

2023 NFL playoff clinching scenarios heading into Week 18 (2023). Which teams can secure a spot to the postseason this week?

After an eventful week in the NFL, we are just one week away from the start of the playoffs. The playoff picture is finally taking shape, and we are gaining insight into where each team will stand in the postseason.

The AFC East title and two wild-card spots are still up for grabs in the AFC, as the Browns and Chiefs secured playoff spots with Week 17 wins. The Ravens will claim the top seed, while the Chiefs are locked into the third position, and the Browns are secured in the fifth position.

On the NFC side, the Niners clinched the top seed, and the Rams punched their ticket to the playoffs. The NFC East and South divisions are still up for grabs, with five teams vying for the final wild-card spot.

AFC Playoff Clinching Scenarios

CLINCHED

1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3): AFC North division title, #1 seed
2) Kansas City Chiefs (10-6): AFC West division title, #3 seed
3) Miami Dolphins (11-5): playoff berth
4) Cleveland Browns (11-5): playoff berth, #5 seed

INSANE: In their last ten games, the Baltimore #Ravens only scored less than 30 points twice.

(H/T @zachbollinger18) pic.twitter.com/t35hP2lvg8

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) January 2, 2024

Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Miami (11-5)

Buffalo clinches AFC East division title with:

1) BUF win

Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:

1) BUF tie
2) PIT loss or tie
3) JAX loss or tie
4) HOU-IND tie

Houston Texans (9-7) at Indianapolis (9-7)

Houston clinches AFC South division title with:

1) HOU win + JAX loss or tie

Houston clinches playoff berth with:

1) HOU win
2) HOU tie + JAX loss + PIT loss or tie

Indianapolis Colts (9-7) vs. Houston (9-7)

Indianapolis clinches AFC South division title with:

1) IND win + JAX loss or tie
2) IND tie + JAX loss

Indianapolis clinches playoff berth with:

1) IND win
2) IND tie + PIT loss or tie

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) at Tennessee (5-11)

Jacksonville clinches AFC South division title with:

1) JAX win
2) JAX tie + HOU-IND tie

Jacksonville clinches playoff berth with:

1) JAX tie + PIT loss or tie
2) PIT loss + DEN loss or tie + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie

Miami Dolphins (11-5) vs. Buffalo (10-6)

Miami clinches AFC East division title with:

1) MIA win or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) at Baltimore (13-3)

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff berth with:

1) PIT win + BUF loss
2) PIT win + JAX loss or tie
3) PIT win + HOU-IND tie
4) PIT tie + JAX loss + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie
5) JAX loss + DEN win + HOU-IND doesn't end in tie

NFC Playoff Clinching Scenarios

CLINCHED

1) San Francisco 49ers (12-4): NFC West division title, #1 seed
2) Detroit Lions (11-5): NFC North division title
3) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): playoff berth
4) Dallas Cowboys (11-5): playoff berth
5) Los Angeles Rams (9-7): playoff berth

Drawing the Niners until we get to the SB:
Day 115

Making History! 🫡💥
The 49ers are the 4th team in NFL history with a 4000+ yard passer and 4 players with 1000+ yards from scrimmage 🙌🏼 pic.twitter.com/hF9oSdDNAk

— Rita Oak (@ritaoak_art) January 2, 2024

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) at New Orleans (8-8)

Atlanta clinches NFC South division title with:

1) ATL win + TB loss

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) at Washington (4-12)

Dallas clinches NFC East division title with:

1) DAL win
2) DAL tie + PHI loss
3) PHI loss

Green Bay Packers (8-8) vs. Chicago (7-9)

Green Bay clinches playoff berth with:

1) GB win
2) GB tie + SEA loss or tie + NO loss or tie
3) GB tie + SEA loss + TB loss
4) GB tie + SEA tie + TB loss or tie
5) MIN loss or tie + SEA loss + TB loss
6) MIN loss or tie + SEA loss + NO loss

Minnesota Vikings (7-9) at Detroit (11-5)

Minnesota clinches playoff berth with:

1) MIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + TB loss
2) MIN win + GB loss + SEA loss + NO loss

New Orleans Saints (8-8) vs. Atlanta (7-9)

New Orleans clinches NFC South division title with:

1) NO win + TB loss or tie
2) NO tie + TB loss

New Orleans clinches playoff berth with:

1) NO win + SEA loss or tie + GB loss or tie
2) NO tie + SEA loss + GB loss

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at New York Giants (5-11)

Philadelphia clinches NFC East division title with:

1) PHI win + DAL loss or tie
2) PHI tie + DAL loss

Seattle Seahawks (8-8) at Arizona (4-12)

Seattle clinches playoff berth with:

1) SEA win + GB loss or tie
2) SEA tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie
3) SEA tie + GB loss + NO loss or tie

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Carolina (2-14)

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South division title with:

1) TB win
2) TB tie + NO loss or tie

Tampa Bay clinches playoff berth with:

1) TB tie + SEA loss + GB loss or tie

Teams Eliminated from NFL Playoffs

• Arizona Cardinals
• Carolina Panthers
• Chicago Bears
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Chargers
• New York Jets
• New York Giants
• New England Patriots
• Tennessee Titans
• Washington Commanders

NFL Playoffs Tiebreaking Procedures

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory in all games.
6. Strength of schedule in all games
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

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