RADIO
Week 9 of the NFL season is here. We're a little over halfway done with the regular season, and we have to continue pushing forward. The NFL teams are gradually separating themselves out into the best and worst teams. It remains possible to bet on inconsistent players and teams, but it's become much easier to rely on the proven producers that are showing up week in and week out which is what worked out for us last week.
I’m not going to lie to you guys, I was beginning to think that I was cursed heading into my picks for last week. After a three-week ice-cold stretch that would make absolute zero look hot, it was nice to get some wins. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown got their work done early. Jaylen Waddle wasn’t far behind, and D.J. Moore made us wait until the Carolina Panthers’ final drive in regulation to get his sixth catch. We went 4-1 overall with the lone miss being Davante Adams just essentially being an absentee player on the day. On the year, we’re still in the red, but we’re clawing our way back.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9
O76.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne has been one of the fastest rising stars in the NFL over the last month. In his last four games, he has 58 carries for 427 yards. For those of you that aren’t interested in doing the math, that translates to 7.4 yards per carry during that span. He’s cleared this 76.5 rushing yards mark in each of his last three games, and he missed this by just six yards against the Houston Texans in a game where he had just 10 carries.
Now, he draws a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank 18th by DVOA against the run, and the Raiders got absolutely walloped last week by the New Orleans Saints. The duo of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara combined for 28 carries for 123 yards. Right now, the most consistent part of the Jaguars’ offense is Etienne, so they should give him all the touches he can handle.
O69.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -113
Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones has had one of the most confusing seasons in the NFL through the first eight weeks. In games where the Packers have featured him, he’s been explosive and nearly unstoppable. However, too often Green Bay’s gameplan has gone away from him. Last week, he was given 20 carries for 143 yards against the Buffalo Bills. He’s only gone over the 65.5 rushing yards mark three times this season, with a near miss against the New York Giants in Week 5.
The Detroit Lions have been one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. They’re allowing an average of 93 rushing yards per game to opposing RB1s, and they’re giving up an average of 5.2 yards per carry to opposing running backs overall. When Green Bay’s offense has done well this year, they’ve been featuring Jones, and they saw last week how good he could be when they gave him a high volume of touches. I think he’ll see a heavy workload throughout the game.
O4.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -113
I like the number we’re getting here even though we are dealing with a backup quarterback against a New England Patriots defense that has chewed up and spit out young quarterbacks over the last 20 years. On the year, Michael Pittman Jr. has caught five or more passes in six of the seven games he’s played in. Last week, in Sam Ehlinger’s first start, he led the team with nine targets, which was four more than any other Indianapolis Colts pass catcher.
Entering Week 9, the Patriots give up an average of 4.9 receptions per game to opposing WR1s for 69.5 receiving yards. We could look to take Pittman’s yardage prop for this week, but, as we saw last week, he caught seven passes that went for just 53 yards. He’s running a lot of the shorter routes rather than heading down the field. With Jonathan Taylor (ankle) out for the game, we should see a heavier dose of Pittman as a result.
Stefon Diggs
O79.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -112
The logic behind this pick is largely tied to the idea of trusting players that have been consistent this season. Through seven games, Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills has seen eight or more targets in all but one game, and he has six or more receptions in all but one game. He’s gone over the 79.5 receiving yards mark in five of those seven games and over 100 in each of those five.
The New York Jets are only allowing an average of 62 yards per game to opposing WR1s. They rank eighth by DVOA against the pass, but they haven’t really gone up against a passing attack as explosive as Buffalo. In the lone game where they did, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow threw for more than 90 yards to each of his top two wideouts. With the high volume of targets that Diggs sees, this mark is well within his reach.
D.J. Moore
O60.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
I’m making the decision to back D.J. Moore two weeks in a row, so I’m sure this won’t backfire on me. The Bengals’ top corner Chidobe Awuzie was just lost for the remainder of the year, and the Bengals don’t have another corner that’s been playing near Awuzie’s level to this point in the season. In fact, with Mike Hilton out for this week as well, the top corner available for the Bengals that has played enough snaps for grading is Eli Apple, who is 103rd out of 110 qualified corners per Pro Football Focus.
Over the last two weeks, Moore has gone over 60 yards in each of the games while seeing 21 targets in that span. He has a 36.2 percent target share over the last two weeks, and the Panthers are playing through him now with running back Christian McCaffery playing with the San Francisco 49ers. Moore’s workload has been consistently trending upwards this season, and I see no reason for that to decrease against Cincinnati this week.
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