RADIO
We're on to Week 7. These NFL teams just can't decide who wants to be good on a weekly basis. 23 of the league's 32 teams are within one game of .500. Multiple big favorites lost last week, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing after being favored by 9.5 points heading into the game. Meanwhile, the New York Giants are 5-1 with wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers in consecutive weeks. Every time you think you have this league figured out, they prove you wrong.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Back-to-back weeks going 0-5 is tough. San Francisco 49ers running back Jeff Wilson Jr. fumbled and was immediately benched. Meanwhile, his opponent Tyler Allgeier was trending towards being a win until he went over on the team's final drive of the game. Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans was also trending the right way, but he just couldn't get the targets he needed. We're down a little over two units now on the season, and it's time to start building that bankroll back.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!All odds used were available at the time of publishing.
NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7
O70.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
I completely understand that arguably the greatest coach of all time made it his mission to shut down Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb, but this line is an overreaction. Through six games, Chubb has cleared this mark in five out of six games, and he’s gone over 110 yards in four of the six contests. The Browns are 4th by DVOA when running the ball compared to 14th when passing. Their bread is buttered on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens represent the perfect matchup for the Browns in this one. The Ravens are 10th against the pass compared to 24th against the run by DVOA. In the last two weeks, they’ve given up 78 and 83 rushing yards to the leading backs for their opponents. The markets overreacted to the outcome last week, and I think we’re getting a great price on Chubb here.
O13.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
With quarterback Carson Wentz on the shelf, Washington Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke is getting the start. He wasn’t running the ball a ton down the stretch last season, but he still has some athleticism when he gets the opportunity. One game where he did run a lot last season? It was against these Green Bay Packers. He had 10 carries for 95 yards, which were his season highs in both categories.
Washington ranks 29th in both run and pass DVOA this season, but their running game with Brian Robinson looks as though it might have turned a corner in Week 6. Now, they have another chance to run well against a Green Bay unit that ranks 32nd by DVOA. Despite facing multiple below-average quarterbacks, the Packers have been dominated on the ground while showing no signs of stopping it. In the two games this season where they’ve played running quarterbacks, they’ve allowed an average of 28.5 rushing yards. 13.5 is certainly within reach for Heinicke this week.
O65.5 Receiving yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -115
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has been nearly everything the team has asked for to start this season. Despite missing a game, he leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards while averaging a healthy 83.4 receiving yards per game. This team’s passing game runs through Pittman. Even though running back Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, Pittman will still be busy.
Additionally, when you consider the matchup, it makes even more sense for Pittman to be in for a big game, even if he was held in check by the Tennessee Titans a couple of weeks ago. The Titans give up an average of 72.4 yards per game to opposing WR1s. As a whole, they’re 3rd by DVOA against the run compared to just 29th against the pass. Teams that have beaten them this year have been doing it through the air. Even if it requires a lot of short dump-offs, that just gives Pittman more opportunities to break a big play or two.
Joe Mixon
U16.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: Barstool Sportsbook
Odds: -105
The Cincinnati Bengals have been trying to get rolling this season, and last week against the New Orleans Saints was probably the closest they’ve looked to their run to the Super Bowl last season. However, it came at the expense of running back Joe Mixon. Mixon finished the game with just eight carries, which gave him 22 over two games after having 24 carries in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins.
The Atlanta Falcons have been a rather stingy run defense so far through six games. They’ve only allowed Chubb to go for more than 100 yards on the ground, and he was also the only running back to go over 16.5 carries in a game against them. One other bit of information that makes this pick even more interesting is the bump you’re getting compared to other books. Most books are offering Mixon at 14.5 carries, and we’re getting two extra carries here.
Ezekiel Elliott
O64.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Our final play of the week is going back to one of the most reliable players of the last half-decade. Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is not nearly as explosive as when he first entered the league, but he remains a constant workhorse for Dallas. He’s hit this mark in three out of his six games this season, including each of his last two outings. Even without quarterback Dak Prescott out of the lineup, the team was still able to find room for Zeke to run.
For as explosive as they have been on offense, the Detroit Lions have been equally forgiving on defense. They’re 32nd against the pass and 31st against the run. They’ve given up 90 or more yards to four of the five running backs they’ve played thus far. Teams are averaging a healthy 5.5 yards per carry against them right now. Throw in the fact that Dallas has a strong defense that should keep Detroit in check, and that goes even more in the favor of Zeke this week.
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