RADIO
We have made it to Week 11, and this league just continues to give me fits on a weekly basis. Teams that shouldn't be getting blown out are doing the opposite, and we're seeing teams change their game plan at halftime even if the previous one was working. We still have time to finish the season strong, and this is where we turn that tide around and push towards the mountaintop before next year.
It was another 2-3 week in Week 10, and I thought we were trending towards a huge week based on the results of the first half. Mike Evans had 49 yards in the first half, and he saw just one target for five yards in the second. Jaylen Waddle finished with 66 yards, but he was pulled with essentially the entire fourth quarter remaining in a blowout. Our final loss of the week happened when Chris Olave saw just five targets, which are the fewest he had seen since Week 1. The tough beats just keep coming.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 10
O73.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has done well for us this season, and we’re going back to the well again this week. This number is relatively low because the books are expecting a shootout where Cleveland is forced to throw a ton to stay in it. However, I think there is a strong chance that we see Cleveland try to pound the rock with Chubb instead. He’s hit this number in seven of the nine games he’s played this season, and the two he didn’t were blowout losses.
We’ve seen this Buffalo defense be soft against the run while focusing on taking away the deep passing game. In each of the last three games, they’ve allowed opposing RB1s to go over this mark while allowing over 120 total rushing yards in each game to opposing backs. With the game being shifted to Detroit, weather and footing shouldn’t be a factor, and the Browns want to run their offense through Chubb. He should see his usual workload in this one.
O98.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -115
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards entering Week 11. In his second season removed from his torn ACL, he looked much like the player that we saw prior to that injury. He’s coming off his fourth game with 100 or more rushing yards, and it was his third game with 140 or more. When he’s run well, he has gone for high yardage amounts.
The Detroit Lions are 27th by DVOA against the run, and they just got done getting gashed by Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears a week ago. While they’ve settled in over the last four weeks, they’ve still allowed four running backs to hit this mark while giving up an average of 113.3 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. As long as the Giants don’t fall behind early, Barkley should be busy early and often.
Justin Fields
O11.5 Rushing Attempts
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: +105
We’re going back to the Justin Fields well on this one. In a game between two teams that don’t want to throw the ball, we could see an extremely fast game, but I also think we could see a heavy dose of Fields running the ball. After failing to hit this mark in his first 17 games, Fields has now hit it in four of his last five, including each of the last two weeks. Ultimately, the key for Fields to get carries throughout the game has been the score remaining close. The Atlanta Falcons won’t be blowing anyone out.
The Falcons rank 25th by DVOA against the run, and they’ve been giving up plays in chunks on the ground and through the air. Another factor in favor of Fields this week is the absence of running back Khalil Herbert. That’s one less player for coach Matt Eberflus to give touches to, and that gives even more opportunities for Fields to carry the ball. Assuming this game is close throughout, we could see another strong week for Fields.
Chris Olave
O50.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
We’re going back to the well this week. Hopefully, there is more water in it this time. Olave saw fewer than six targets for just the first time since Week 1, and it happened on the road with quarterback Andy Dalton struggling to find his rhythm. Now, they’re against a Los Angeles Rams team that has been underwhelming all season long, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
The Rams rank fourth by DVOA against the run, but they’re 21st against the pass. Against opposing WR1s, the Rams have been giving up a healthy 82.4 yards per game on 10.1 targets. This line is 10 yards lower than it was a week ago, and Olave has cruised past this in all but two games this year. In the games where he has seen at least six targets, he’s gone over this mark. As long as Dalton looks his way, we should be in business.
Justin Jefferson
O93.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is coming off of one of the best games of his young career, and he had arguably the most incredible catch the NFL has ever seen. (This is not the time for you to argue about what catch you think is the best. Alright, moving on.) Following a couple of slow games in the early part of the year. Jefferson has been on an absolute tear over the last six games.
Jefferson has gone for 98 or more yards in each of his last six games, and he’s gone over 150 yards in three of those six games. The Dallas Cowboys just got beat on the road by the Green Bay Packers when rookie wideout Christian Watson was able to break loose down the field for some big plays. Jefferson has that same potential for big plays, but he can also get involved on underneath routes. We’re riding with good players that have been consistent, and Jefferson has been pretty damn consistent as of late.
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