RADIO
The NFL season is finally back. After 207 days, we finally have legitimate NFL action awaiting us from now until February. With that, we have real NFL football to wager on. We’re done with the preseason where you’re hoping that one seventh-round pick finds his way into the endzone. Now, those bets you’ve been planning for months can finally be placed with actual chances for cash on the line.
Starting in Week 1 all the way through the end of the year, I’ll be bringing you my favorite player props every single week. I’ll be operating off of the lines that are offered on the sportsbooks that are legal in Indiana, as that is where I am based, however, always remember to shop for the best odds wherever you may be based. While I may have one line, you may have another that’s better on a different book.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 1
Nick Chubb OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
We’re going to a familiar face from last season for our first play of the year. Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb made us some decent money last year, and he’s in a prime spot in Week 1 to start us off on the right foot. With a full offseason of work alongside his new quarterback that should force defenses to load the box less often along with a higher percentage of the carries, Chubb is primed for a great day in Week 1.
He went over this mark in 13 of his 17 contests last season, including five of the six games with Deshaun Watson in the lineup. He went 1 for 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he draws a Bengals defense that is missing some pieces from last year. One of the best ways to slow down this high-flying Bengals’ offense is to keep them on the sidelines with long drives, and that’s where Chubb can make a lot of his hay. This line is right up his alley to start the year.
Dameon Pierce UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: PointsBet
Odds: -125
This offseason, the Houston Texans prepared for their future by adding a new quarterback along with trading up for a cornerstone edge rusher while also hiring a new head coach that they hope will bring them into the future. Their reward is a matchup with a revamped Baltimore Ravens team that looks poised to insert themselves back into the national conversation with a strong performance in Week 1.
Prior to missing the last four games of the season last year, Pierce went over this line in nine of 13 contests. Unfortunately, I see this as a spot where the Ravens sell out to stop the run and dare C.J. Stroud to beat them through the air. After adding Roquan Smith last season, the Ravens held five straight teams under 90 rushing yards as a team. Baltimore’s weakness is through the air, but I’m not convinced that the Texans can keep this game close or attack them in the passing game to keep Pierce involved long enough to hit this number. This line is also about five yards better than most other books are offering right now, and I like that extra value.
Kirk Cousins UNDER 265.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off of a season where he threw for more than 4500 yards, which was the second-best mark of his career. The Vikings won 13 games, including all 11 one-score games. Despite that, Kirk only went over this mark in eight of his 17 games last year. While I expect the Vikings to regress some from last season, I’m expecting a bigger regression from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and I think Kirk should have a lower workload in Week 1 as a result.
On offense, following the injury to center Ryan Jensen, four new starters on the offensive line, a new starting wide receiver, running back, tight end, and obviously quarterback with the retirement of Tom Brady. On defense, they’re returning largely the same unit that allowed the 10th-fewest yards to opposing quarterbacks last season, so they should be able to hold Minnesota in check for the most part. This play is largely based on the idea that Minnesota will be able to get a strong lead early in the game, and they won’t have to throw late in the game
Davante Adams OVER 5.5 Receptions
Sportsbook: Caesar's Sportsbook
Odds: -113
I call this “Knowing where your bread is buttered.” New Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the greatest elevator of talent, and he’s playing under a coach who has underwhelmed significantly in Josh McDaniels. However, Jimmy showed in San Francisco that he is capable of getting the ball out to his primary receiving targets. I expect McDaniels to dial up a heavy dose of Davante Adams here in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos.
In two games against the Broncos last season, Adams caught 16 of 26 targets for 242 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Third-year cornerback Pat Surtain II remains one of the best corners in the game, but he just couldn’t keep the lid on Adams last season. I also expect the Broncos to take a step back on the defensive side of the ball after a few of the departures they had this offseason, most notably in defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Adams hit this mark in nine games last season, but he saw seven or more targets in 16 of 17 games. This line is well within his reach.
Justin Herbert OVER 38.5 Yards Longest Passing Completion
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -110
After hitting this mark in each of the team's first four games to open the season last year, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert hit this longball mark just two more times over the team's final 13 games. However, this offseason they traded out their offensive coordinator for Kellen Moore from the Dallas Cowboys along with spending a high draft pick on wideout Quentin Johnston in the first round back in April to bring a bit more of a vertical threat to the offense to pair with Herbert’s cannon of an arm.
Herbert hit this last season against the Miami Dolphins, and I think there is a strong opportunity that we see an early deep shot taken by this Chargers’ offense to show that they’re going to be a new style of offense this season. Between Joshua Palmer, Johnston, and Mike Williams, who had a big game against Miami last year, there are enough deep threats for Herbert to complete at least one long ball against them. With this prop, it only takes one big play to cash.
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