Week 10 DFS Lineups Primer for FanDuel, DraftKings - NFL Matchups, DFS Salaries, more

Thunder Dan Palyo looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 10 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

The Chiefs won in Germany, the Eagles did their best to give one away to the Cowboys in a game that came down to the final seconds, and the Texans and Vikings both came back to win in dramatic fashion. But Week 9 is over and the NFL regular season is halfway in the books. It's time to shift our perspective to the upcoming Week 10 and what it brings as far as NFL DFS is concerned.

This year, I started a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday afternoon (once all the stats and rankings from Monday night's game are processed). This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 12. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!

Week 10 Vegas Totals and Team Data

Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. We have another Germany game on Sunday morning (Colts-Patriots) and four teams on a bye (some of the best offenses in football - KC, PHI, MIA...and LAR) so we are left with just a 10-game main slate once again.

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 10: Main Slate Only

1. Cowboys - 27.75
2. Bengals - 27
3. Seahawks - 26
4. Lions - 25
5. Niners - 24

Awesome play design and technical execution from the Bengals offense on this 17-yard catch for Tanner Hudson. Masters-level quarterbacking from Joe Burrow.

Key components:

1. Tanner Hudson lines up wide covered by S Micah Hyde, Ja’Marr Chase is in the slot. Bengals set up a… pic.twitter.com/Lo720CVcWD

— Willie Lutz (@willie_lutz) November 7, 2023

2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through 9 Games: Points Per Game

1. Cowboys - 27.5
2. Niners - 27.3
3. Ravens - 26.6
4. Chargers - 25.1
5. Lions - 25.0

2023 Stingiest Defenses Through 9 Games: Points Allowed Per Game (Avoid)

1. Ravens - 13.8
2. Browns - 17.4
3. Niners - 17.5
4. Cowboys - 18.5
5. Saints - 19.0

High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through 9 Games

1. Lions - 390.6
2. Niners - 376.6
3. Ravens - 369.0
4. Vikings - 354.8
5. Texans - 351.1

Look at Jared Goff on the move! #OnePride pic.twitter.com/JUF1UCoYtm

— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) November 3, 2023

Struggling Defenses: Most Total Yards Allowed Through 8 Games

1. Steelers - 377.3
2. Chargers - 375.8
3. Bucs - 372.8
4. Commanders - 368.9
5. Bengals - 364.0

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Week 10 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.

Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)

(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)

1. Lions (6) vs. Chargers (21)
2. Seahawks (9) vs. Commanders (29)
3. Falcons (23) vs. Cardinals (31)
4. Cowboys (15) vs. Giants (20)
5. Bengals (18) vs. Texans (26)

Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)

(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)

1. Falcons (15) vs. Cardinals (30)
2. Lions (5) vs. Chargers (20)
3. Cowboys (24) vs. Giants (28)
4. Commanders (9) vs. Seahawks (18)
5. Niners (3) vs. Jags (4)

The way the #Falcons are misusing Bijan Robinson is absolutely astonishing. pic.twitter.com/hEvbYmN2Nj

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 7, 2023

2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Chargers (Goff), Commanders (Smith), Bucs (Levis), Falcons (Tune), Cardinals (Heinicke)

RB - Cardinals (Robinson), Giants (Pollard), Steelers (Jones), Texans (Mixon), Packers (Harris)

WR - Bucs (Hopkins), Commanders (Lockett), Chargers (St. Brown), Steelers (Watson), Niners (Ridley)

TE - Bengals (Schultz), Texans (Smith Jr.), Lions (Everett), Jags (Kittle), Chargers (LaPorta)

DEF - Commanders (SEA), Browns (BAL), Cardinals (ATL), Falcons (ARI), Vikings (NO)

Never forget. Dalton Schultz broke a tackle and obliterated a would be tackler on 3rd down to set up that Tank Dell TD. pic.twitter.com/AkYoNW76Bl

— V̷a̷t̷o̷r̷ (@VatorSports) November 5, 2023

Week 10 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis

Every week pricing gets TIGHTER and we feel the squeeze. This makes punt plays more appealing and the idea of a cheap stack incredibly appealing as we try to fit the high-priced smash plays around it. It's pretty ugly this week, I am going to pare it down from five pairs to just three.

1. Levis - Hopkins (11.3k) - After getting together for three TDs in Levis's debut, Hopkins had just four catches for 60 yards against the Steelers, but was targeted 11 times!
2. Heinicke - London (10.6k) - Heinicke got the Atlanta passing game moving last week and now gets London back this week against a bad Arizona defense.
3. Watson - Cooper (11.47) - The reunion went well last week as Watson and Cooper hooked up for 139 yards and a touchdown. The tough matchup against the Ravens is keeping their prices down this week.

Injury Situations to Monitor This Week

QB: Still no Kyler Murray for Arizona, Daniel Jones is done for the season, and Jaren Hall is in concussion protocol.

RB: David Montgomery is trending toward a return for the Lions and if he does, the entire fantasy community will be interested to see how the touches are divided up between Monty and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Dameon Pierce missed last week's game for the Texans. Devin Singletary was the lead back in his absence but was unable to get anything going on the ground. Cam Akers appears to have torn his ACL, leaving Alexander Mattison as the clear lead back once again in Minnesota.

WR: Ja'Marr Chase is day to day, Drake London is set to return this week as is Deebo Samuel. Christian Watson is in the concussion protocol, while Robert Woods, Zay Jones, and Curtis Samuel are all potential candidates to return after missing last week.

TE: T.J. Hockenson left last week's game earlier with bruised ribs, but his status is uncertain at best.

Week 10 Interesting Stats

• The Ravens are on an incredible run on offense over their last three weeks but will face a Browns team that has one of the better defenses in the league and held them to just three points back in Week 4. Lamar Jackson has been pressured on only 14% of his throws this season but Cleveland has a potent pass rush that could make him uncomfortable this week and the #1 rush defense as well.
• No team is more pass-heavy than the Chiefs who are off this week, but the next two teams in DBOE (drop back over expectation) are the Chargers and Bengals who are both facing some pretty good opponents this week in Detroit and Houston, respectively. With both of those defenses being pretty stout against the run, we could see Burrow and Herbert airing it out a lot again this week.
• George Pickens isn't very happy playing second fiddle to Diontae Johnson in Pittsburgh, he's made that clear. But even with Pickens having a reduced role the last few weeks, he still owns a 44.5% share of Pittsburgh's air yards - the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. He's going to bust out some big plays yet and I would have to think the Steelers are busy thinking of some ways to scheme him the ball.
• After his huge game last weekend, C.J. Stroud has now thrown 14 touchdowns and just one interception. The Bengals are playing well right now and are coming off a win over Josh Allen. So just how legit Stroud and the Texans are is about to be answered in a huge game for them this weekend.
• Per FantasyLife.com's Unit Rankings, the San Francisco 49ers are the only team with all but one offensive and defensive position group ranked 10th or better. That position that is outside the top 10? It's the QB position where they rank 23rd. Brock Purdy has been struggling lately but it's pretty clear that his play has a huge impact on how this team performs considering the amount of talent around him on both sides of the ball.

Alright, that's it for my Week 10 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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