RADIO
Welcome to the Week 6 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this sixth main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Brock Purdy, SF at CLE | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $26
The early-career Tom Brady comparisons have unsurprisingly already started with Purdy, who's displayed much of the same steely resolve and unflappable nature that belies his inexperience. The 49ers' signal-caller has yet to throw an interception and has just one turnover, a fumble, through five games. Purdy is also averaging an impressive 9.3 yards per attempt and already has nearly as many completions of 20+ yards -- 18 across five contests -- as the 20 he connected on in nine regular-season contests.
Brock Purdy's best throw from last night and there couldn't be a better angle to show it pic.twitter.com/DhDHOPmPK0
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 9, 2023
The matchup against an aggressive Browns defense isn't ideal, but with Purdy's salaries being what they are and the matchup-proof profile he's boasted so far, he remains very much in play. Purdy has been extremely proficient at ball security throughout his young career, and he has an elite offensive line augmented by the superior blocking presence of tight end George Kittle to help keep him upright and give the Cleveland pass rush what will arguably be its toughest challenge yet. The fact all of his pass-catching weapons are healthy and Christian McCaffrey is capable of slowing down any front due to his explosiveness certainly also works in the second-year signal-caller's favor.
Derek Carr, NO at HOU | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $22
Carr is still waiting for his first true breakout game as a Saint, but he has eclipsed 300 yards once (back in Week 1) and he's coming off his first multi-touchdown effort in Week 5, a game that he went into with a much healthier throwing shoulder than in Week 4. Carr has all his main offensive weapons healthy and has an especially appealing price on DraftKings, and his matchup against a Texans defense allowing the third-highest completion percentage (72.4) in the league certainly makes him stand out as a value option.
Houston has surrendered 250 passing yards per game over the last three contests as well, and although the Texans have only ceded 9.6 yards per completion, that figure dovetails well with New Orleans' typical mid-range passing game. Carr should also be set for a solid amount of work through the air, considering the Texans' C.J. Stroud has quickly acclimated to the NFL and hasn't thrown for any less than 242 yards in any game, making him and his offense one the Saints will have to be mindful of keeping pace with to a certain degree.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Bryce Young, CAR at MIA | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $22
- Desmond Ridder, ATL vs. WAS | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $22
- DraftKings-FanDuel Special: Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. ARI | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Alvin Kamara, NO at HOU| DK: $6,800, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $22
Speaking of the Saints weapons surrounding Carr, Kamara has been one that's been especially busy after making his delayed season debut in Week 4. The versatile veteran's volume has been especially encouraging, as he's logged 24 and 25 touches in his first pair of contests. Kamara has a rushing touchdown as well and should continue to enjoy a robust role -- especially after dispelling any lingering doubts about his conditioning with 22 carries in Week 5 -- with Jamaal Williams (hamstring) still on injured reserve and rookie Kendre Miller still handling a modest role.
Alvin Kamara Is Now The Saints All Time Leading TD Scorer. Love that man! pic.twitter.com/Ylr7siOLBF
— Barstool NOLA (@BarstoolNOLA) October 8, 2023
The Texans have undeniably been better against the run by an appreciable degree in DeMeco Ryans' first few games as head coach, but Kamara's versatile role and volume still elevate him above the matchup to an extent. Additionally, Houston has allowed 120 rushing yards per game at home thus far and a 23-195-1 line to running backs through the air over five games, numbers that do bode well for Kamara and his versatile skill set.
D'Andre Swift, PHI at NYJ | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $25
Swift has already made DFS players very happy on a couple of occasions during his brief Eagles stint, most notably in a Week 2 performance versus the Vikings where he racked up a career-high 175 rushing yards and a touchdown. Swift also has a 130-yard tally on his resume, and after years of frustratingly inconsistent usage in Detroit, he's taking full advantage of a primary back role in Philadelphia by averaging a career-best 5.7 yards per carry on his 76 totes thus far.
The Jets have surprisingly been very vulnerable against the run in the early going, surrendering 146.2 rushing yards per game, including 152.7 per home contest. New York has also given up a bloated 31-260-1 receiving line to running backs, setting a player with Swift's pass-catching acumen up quite nicely. Finally, consider the Eagles' offensive line has facilitated an elite average of 1.90 yards per carry prior to first contact per Pro Football Focus, typically giving Swift quite the head of steam on his opportunities and helping lead to his career-high 5.7 yards per carry.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Breece Hall, NYJ vs. PHI | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $19
- Yahoo-only Special: Travis Etienne, JAX vs. IND | $24
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Jakobi Meyers, LVR vs. NE | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $16
Meyers heads into his first encounter with his old Patriots squad with plenty of momentum, as he's been nearly as important to the Raiders offense as star position mate Davante Adams. Meyers has at least seven catches and 75 yards in three of four games thus far, drawing double-digit targets in each of those contests. His familiarity with Josh McDaniels' offense has unsurprisingly helped him hit the ground running, and he should have no shortage of motivation against his former team's injury-hampered secondary.
Raiders take the lead through Jakobi Meyers! 🚨 #GBvsLV pic.twitter.com/sMtbp56vZ5
— The Game Day NFL (@TheGameDayNFL) October 10, 2023
All of Meyers' underlying metrics bode well for another productive game, as he's drawing over 22 percent of the Raiders' targets, just under 30 percent of the team's air yards and is being targeted on just over 27 percent of his routes. He's also seen eight red-zone targets through four games, giving him plenty of potential touchdown equity as well.
Jordan Addison, MIN at CHI | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $20
Addison came through nicely as an alternate option in Week 5 after surprisingly being blanked in Week 4, and with a matchup on tap against a Bears secondary that's given up its fair share of big plays and Justin Jefferson (hamstring) now on IR, there should be no shortage of opportunity for the rookie to get plenty of Kirk Cousins' attention. The Bears have surrendered an NFC-high 286 passing yards per contest and an elevated 70.8 percent completion rate, making Addison all the more appealing at his salaries.
Addison is already drawing over 22 percent of Minnesota's air yards and has an appealing depth of target of 11.6 yards. Moreover, he's averaging 1.63 yards per route run and should now be diversifying his route tree with Jefferson unavailable. Then, the 11.3 yards per completion Chicago is allowing, including 12.5 at home, certainly is promising for a receiver with Addison's downfield role and speed.
Marquise Brown, ARI at LAR | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $16
Brown is already the subject of trade rumors as the Oct. 31 deadline draws closer, but for the moment, he remains the Cardinals' most potent offensive weapon, especially with James Conner (knee) now out of action. Brown's salaries on DK and Yahoo are especially eye-catching -- not that he isn't a solid value on FanDuel as well -- especially for a player that is already averaging over eight targets per contest, including double-digit looks in three of his last four. Factoring in the Cardinals project to be trailing against what is now a full-strength Rams team, and you have a recipe for Brown overdelivering on investment yet again.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Calvin Ridley, JAX vs. IND | DK: $6,700, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $17
- DK-Yahoo Special: DJ Moore, CHI vs. MIN | DK: $6,500, Yahoo: $24
- Yahoo-only Special: DeVonta Smith | $19
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Evan Engram, JAX vs. IND | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $19
Engram's role hasn't changed much from 2022 despite the arrival of another highly-targeted pass catcher in Calvin Ridley, with the veteran tight end recording exactly eight targets in each of his last four games. Engram has at least five grabs in all but one game as well, and he's encouragingly laying claim to over 20 percent of the team's target share. Engram posted a 5-49 line on five targets in Week 1 against these same Colts, and with Zay Jones (knee) looking likely to sit out Sunday's rematch after missing both Wednesday's and Thursday's practices, Engram could be at least as busy as he's been since that contest.
Logan Thomas, WAS at ATL | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $15
Thomas is one of my favorite value plays at any position this week, with a clear path there for him to outperform his salaries by a solid amount. The veteran tight end comes in well rested after the Commanders played on Thursday night in Week 5, a contest in which he produced a season-best 9-77-1 line on 11 targets that netted 21.7 DK/16.2 FD/Yahoo points. Thomas eight- and 11-target tallies in two of his first three non-injury-shortened games, and he's set to face off against one of the most generous teams in the league to tight ends in the Falcons, which have given up a 35-313-3 line to the position and have typically funneled action there due to how tough they've been on wide receivers (61.1 percent catch rate surrendered).
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Zach Ertz, ARI at LAR | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $14
- Cade Otton, TB vs DET | DK: $3,200, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $13
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