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Corey Johnson presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 3 Monday Night Football games. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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Week 3 of Monday Night Football features a matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Washington Redskins. The game has a reasonably high implied total set at 47.5 with about a three and a half point spread, favoring the Bears.
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Pick 1: Touchdown Dance
Recommended Prop Pick: Adrian Peterson, David Montgomery, and Allen Robinson to score 3.5+ total touchdowns.
This Touchdown Dance contest is really interesting-- the Bears have struggled to score touchdowns this season (they only have one) but the Redskins Defense has been pretty weak so far. Trubisky has proven that he is a solid NFL quarterback and will likely be looking to gain some momentum in this game. So far this season, Robinson has been Trubisky's favorite target and it should be the same in Week 3; hopefully he is able to get into the end zone for the first time this season. As for Montgomery, he has the only Bears' touchdown this season. He touched the ball 19 times in Week 2 and as long as he gets the same opportunity, he'll have a chance to fall into the end zone once, or even twice. The Redskins are running a true running back-by-committee but Peterson has been getting the vast majority of the goal line touches-- remember, we could care less about yards, all we need is for him to get into the end zone!
Note: I recommend going with the 3.5+ total, which of course requires at least one of these players to get into the end zone twice; this isn't a bet that you should go crazy with. Rather, make a relatively small bet in hopes of finding that 20x payout and maybe a slightly larger bet on the 1.5+ total.
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Pick 2: Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Mitch Trubisky OVER 16.5 fantasy points and Case Keenum OVER 14.5 fanasty points.
In a game that has a relatively high implied total and a tight spread, quarterbacks should be able to rack up fantasy points-- 16.5 and 14.5 fantasy points seem like very reasonable numbers for these guys to surpass. Despite the Redskins being 0-2, Keenum has actually looked really good this season and has been a decent fantasy point producer. He has averaged 250 passing yards per game and has five total touchdowns-- of course the Bears' defense is an elite group but he should pass those 14.5 fantasy points fairly easily. As for Trubisky, who has started the season really poorly, he should be able to right the ship against the well below average passing defense of the Redskins. Last year, Trubisky proved to be a really productive fantasy quarterback and I expect to see some of that this week.
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Pick 3: Rapid Fire Fantasy Points
Recommended Prop Pick: Mitch Trubisky to score more fantasy points than Case Keenum (+1.5) and Allen Robinson to score more fantasy points than David Mongomery (+2.5).
I've mentioned all these players already and I think you understand my stance on this game but I'll reiterate: I really like Trubisky finding some momentum against the weak Redskins' passing defense with Robinson being a major beneficiary. Trubisky can gain fantasy points through the air and on the ground; even if Keenum is able to put together a solid game, Trubisky should be able to out-perform him. Monkey Knife Fight uses a PPR format which is ultimately why I picked Robinson over Mongomery (+2.5)-- I think Montgomery is able to put together a solid game on the ground but he is nearly irrelevant in the passing game with only 2 receptions this season. If Robinson finishes the game with six to eight receptions, it will be hard for Montgomery to match his fantasy points.
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