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Folks, it's time to put on your battle armor and get ready for war as we get ready for the all-important championship week. If you are still in the playoffs, that means you have been been able to stay alive and grind through 16 long weeks. Only one thing can beat you to the finish line: yourself. But hey, don't lose any bit of hope. I'm here for another week to show you how the league is looking entering the final round of the fantasy playoffs so you can make the final pinpoint decisions of the year and bring that championship home.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 16 - TE/WR Air Yards Don't Lie - NextGenStats
If you remember the introductory post to the series, you already know Air Yards tell us the vertical yards on a pass attempt from the line of scrimmage to the point where the ball was caught by the receiver (or the catch failed to be completed). I will be using mainly two metrics here: Average Targeted Air Yards (TAY) and %Share of Team's Air Yards (TAY%). TAY tells us how many air yards a receiver is thrown per target. TAY% measures the percentage of air yards a receiver was thrown at over the sum of his team's total air yards.
With four weeks in the books, we can (at least moderately) say that we have enough data to assess what and what not is going on at the wide receiver and tight end positions. This doesn't mean air yard values are already stabilized, not close to it, but it is highly probable that what we see in Weeks 1-4 stays mostly the same at least in the short-to-mid-term future, with high chances of staying on similar levels for the full season.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with receiver fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category, along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 40 targets for both WR and TE.
Cushion / Separation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-6% / 2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Most players with high SEP values are tight ends. That comes down to them not being covered as tightly as other, more skillful receivers. Also, tight ends are often used as security blankets, so they're thrown passes only when they're quite open.
Most tight ends also find it hard to really separate from defenders because of their frames and how their bodies are built. Let's say they're not speedsters.
Last week's SEP leaderboard featured 10 tight ends inside the top-11 on that front. Things have gone down from that to 9-of-10, but that's only because of a minimum target issue rather than a production/style thing three weeks after the last time we checked.
Even then, Greg Dortch still leads every NFL player in SEP all by himself at 4.6 yards of separation compared to the second-most 4.3-yard figure shared by Robert Tonyan and Tyler Conklin.
Interestingly enough, no Cardinals tight end appears among the top-10 SEP players while two receivers from Arizona actually top the leaderboard (Dortch) or immediately follow all tight ends bunched inside the top-10 (Rondale Moore, 3.8 SEP).
On the other hand, Kylen Granson (7.3) is the only tight end currently given more than 7.0 CUSH yards on average. Kyle Pitts comes second right at that 7.0 figure. Six tight ends are above 6.5 CUSH compared to 35 WRs posting that average or a higher one through Week 16.
Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore, again Cardinals, have the top-two CUSH averages of the NFL. They also have the top-two CUSH+SEP combined figures in the whole league.
Surprisingly, Kylen Granson has the third-highest combined CUSH+SEP mark through Week 16 (11.2 yards) among qualified pass catchers. Tyler Lockett and Robert Tonyan close the top-five both tied at 11.0 combined yards.
We will see if DeVante Parker ends up making the final leaderboard (he made the cut this week with the bare minimum of 40 targets needed), but if he actually does make it, he will inevitably trail everybody on both CUSH and SEP leaderboards. He's at a 4.0 CUSH (0.8 separated from the second-lowest figure) and a 1.5 SEP (0.4 below the second-lowest).
Parker's 5.5 CUSH+SEP is 1.4 yards separated from the second-lowest combined figure (Allen Robinson's 6.9), which is the same distance between the second place and the 21st.
There are 29 players with CUSH+SEP figures of 8.5 or lower. They are averaging 11.3 PPR per game as a group, but only 13 of the 29 (45%) are actually averaging more than those 11.3 PPR points on a weekly basis.
Here is the fantasy report for the SEP and CUSH leaderboards after Week 16:
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with 15+ FPPG: 6.1 CUSH, 3.0 SEP
- Averages for fantasy WR/TE with <9 FPPG: 6.2 CUSH, 3.1 SEP
In a few words: don't rely on CUSH or SEP. Those are a couple of descriptive, not predictive stats and often come in all shapes and sizes without much predictability to them.
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 6% / 62%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Opportunity trumps everything in fantasy football, and it can be seen in the highly related link between the percentage of yards a team/QB throws toward a player and the fantasy points he scores.
Three weeks from our last check, there are now five players boasting TAY% figures of 40% or higher. In fact, DJ Moore joined the group and now tops the whole NFL while A.J. Brown joined this five-man club by a hair (40.3%).
Also, Tyreek Hill supplanted CeeDee Lamb with the latter falling all the way to 36.7% and ninth place in the leaderboard.
Brown and DeVonta Smith are the higher duo of pass-catchers from the same team to appear on the leaderboard. They have combined for 72.2% of all Eagles' air yards through Week 16 by themselves.
DK Metcalf and Lockett are the second duo in the leaderboard from the same team but at a distant 68 percent TAY% between them in the Seahawks offense.
Darius Slayton (30.6%) is the only player with a TAY% figure higher than 30% while having fewer than 100 targets through Week 16. Allen Lazard comes next among those targeted fewer than 100 times with a TAY% of 19.1 percent.
Mark Andrews has the largest TAY% among tight ends at a ridiculous 30.9 percent. No other tight end is above 25.2%, which is Travis Kelce's figure to date. Kyle Pitts (22.9%) is third, not even getting 23 percent of his team's total air yards.
As is always the case, the lower part of the aDOT (aka TAY) leaderboard is populated by tight ends and led by one of them: Tyler Higbee with the lowest aDOT among qualified players at just 3.4 yards down the field.
Greg Dortch ranks second, though, at just 3.7 while labeled a WR. Teammate Rondale Moore is tied for fourth with an aDOT of 5.3 yards while Deebo Samuel (4.6) is the only other qualified player boasting an aDOT shorter than five yards down the field.
Michael Pittman Jr. (26.7 TAY%) is the only pass catcher with a share of 25%+ of his team's total air yards, posting an aDOT shorter than 7.5 yards per target.
Brandon Aiyuk (30.8%) has the largest TAY% among players that have an aDOT shorter than 10 yards down the field (9.7).
There are 20 players qualified posting aDOTs shorter than 7.0 yards down the field. Kylen Granson is the only one without a single touchdown scored through Week 16 while Amon-Ra St. Brown (six) is the only player with more than five scores throughout the season.
DJ Chark (16.3) is the only player in the NFL getting targeted beyond 16+ yards down the field on a per-target basis. Gabe Davis and DeVante Parker are the only other players at 15+ aDOT.
Kyle Pitts has the largest mark among tight ends at 13.2 yards down the field. No other tight end is above 11.5 aDOT (Greg Dulcich) and only one more TE is above 10 yards of aDOT (Mark Andrews' 10.2 TAY).
Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 82% / 80% / 32% / 74%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Obviously, receptions trump targets in terms of fantasy-point production (in PPR formats, that is) because, well, they hand out actual fantasy points.
All but two players in the top-24 fantasy leaderboard (FPPG) through Week 16 have caught at least 60 passes. All of them are averaging at least 13.7 PPR points per game.
Those two exceptions have caught 53 and 52 passes each. Those two exceptions are Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both players of the Los Angeles Chargers.
It's going to take a massive effort for Justin Jefferson to break the 200-target mark as he's still 26 shy of reaching that figure. He could get there, of course, but I'm afraid we'll have to wait at least one more year to see that happening. Jefferson should beat Cooper Kupp's 2021 mark of 185 targets easily, though.
The four players with more than 120 targets are all averaging at least 22 PPR points per game. Davante Adams, though, is the absolute best among them because he's got the second-highest PPR average while having caught just 79 passes.
It's staggering how much Davante Adams has struggled at catching passes in Las Vegas. He's got the second-most targets in the NFL but only the ninth-most receptions. He's caught a measly 55% of his targets, the lowest percentage among pass catchers targeted at least 105 times through Week 16.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Lockett have catch rates above 72% while getting targeted more than 100 times this year. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp are close but not quite there as they have 96 and 98 targets on the year (although they both have CTCH% nearly four full percentage points above the former two).
Dortch qualified for this week's leaderboard with 50 targets, boasting the highest catch rate (88%), but if he ultimately ends up missing out on the final minimum, then it'd be Goedert in first place (82.1% on 56 targets) followed by Noah Fant (78.6% on 56).
DJ Moore (53.9%) is the only player catching fewer than 55% of the targets thrown his way while still having tallied more than 100 targets over the season. Adams follows him with 55% on 160. No other player with 100+ targets has caught fewer than 58.3% of them (Mike Evans).
Adams might be struggling to catch passes but he's catching them where they matter, tied for the lead on the TD leaderboard with Kelce at 12 scores each. Nobody has 11 and there is another two-way tie for third with A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs both having eight TDs each.
Jahan Dotson has the best TD:REC ratio scoring a touchdown every 4.14 receptions. No other player is doing it at a better pace with Christian Watson clocking in second at one score per five receptions.
On a per-target basis, Dotson and Watson still lead the league at 7.1 and 7.9 targets per touchdown, respectively. Kelce has the better ratio among players with 10+ TDs, scoring one every 11.3 targets.
Courtland Sutton is the least efficient touchdown scorer (min. one TD) as he's hit paydirt once over a diet of 96 targets through the season. Michael Pittman Jr. is the least efficient multi-touchdown scorer (2+ TDs) with one score every 64 targets this year.
Obviously, Diontae Johnson is inching closer to making history. There are only two games left in the season, and if Johnson doesn't score a single touchdown, he will absolutely destroy the record for no touchdowns with the most targets in the past 23 campaigns. Currently, Amani Toomer is in possession of it after finishing the 2004 season with 107 targets and no touchdowns.
"Total" Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / "Air" Yards / YAC%
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 87% / 78% / negative-2%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
Nothing surprising here, as receiving yardage is factored into the calculation of fantasy points without much hard math involved. Leaders in yardage average the most fantasy points, with the touchdowns and receptions just being a weekly bonus to their tallies.
There might be history in the making this season, folks. Justin Jefferson has already caught passes for 1,756 yards, entering a select five-man club with more than 1,725 yards in a single season since 2000. He still has time (and is on pace) to reach the absolute best mark (1,964 by Calvin Johnson in 2012) and Cooper Kupp's 2021 1,947-yard mark.
Since the last time we checked, as you'd have noticed already, Hill fell from no. 1 (100+ advantage in Week 13) to no. 2, but he's safe to finish the season there as he's built a 300+ yard padding with his most-immediate pursuers.
Obviously, the total and air yards leaderboards are so close and nearly match each other to a tee.
When it comes to YAC performers, Deebo Samuel keeps doing the impossible, having racked up 77.8% of his total receiving yards after the catch. Rondale Moore (70.5%) is the only other receiver having accrued more than 70% of his that way.
As many as 13 players in the top-20 YAC% are tight ends compared to just seven wide receivers. Nine of them, all inside the top-12, have a YAC% of 55% or higher.
Chris Olave (19.5%) has been unstoppable before the catch but not so much after that. He is the only player with 100+ targets and a YAC% lower than 20 percent.
Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jaylen Waddle are tied for the most YPR (18.8) through Week 16. Gabe Davis has the highest aYDS/R in the NFL at 14.5. Deebo Samuel has the highest YAC/R in the NFL at 8.8.
Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 8% / 8% / 18%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
King Deebo is still reigning on the YAC/R front but he's a hair down from his Week 13 mark of 8.8, down to an 8.9 figure now.
Only two other players (both tight ends) are currently averaging more than 7.5 YAC/R. None of the three, including Deebo, have seen 100 targets yet.
Among the 100+ targets cohort, Jaylen Waddle leads the way at 7.5 YAC/R followed by Travis Kelce already down at 6.7 YAC/R, nearly a full yard behind the Dolphins wideout.
The model doesn't see Deebo as the actual best YAC performer, though, as the xYAC of Goedert, Jordan Akins, and Quez Watkins are all above Deebo's figure through Week 16. Again, none of them have reached 100 targets yet.
Christian Kirk (122) has the largest xYAC among players with 100+ targets at 5.1 xYAC/R. No other player with more than 100 targets through the season has been expected to average more than 4.9 YAC per reception.
Second-year wideout Waddle leads the league at outperforming the YAC expectations by a massive 3.1 YPR. Nobody else (no, not even Deebo) is past 2.6 such overperforming yardages.
On the other end, it's been a season to forget on the YAC front for Quez Watkins and his minus-1.7 YACOE. Richie James and Robert Tonyan are the only other two players posting YACOE figures into the minus-1.0 or worse.
You can look at this from two different angles: over/underperformance in YAC related to FPPG, and the other way around.
- Players averaging 15+ FPPG are outperforming their xYAC/R by an average of 0.9 yards.
- Players averaging <10 FPPG are also outperforming their figures, but only by 0.3 yards.
From the other perspective:
- Players with YACAE figures above 1.0 yards are averaging 11.8 FPPG
- Players with YACAE figures below 0.0 yards are averaging 9.2 FPPG.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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