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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Wednesday, March 10th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
Semi-unfortunately for basketball fans everywhere, we are getting eased back into the second half of the NBA season. With just two games on Wednesday's slate, there were only slight movements over night in terms of the main props for each game. While Ja Morant's projected points went from 22 to 23, Luka Doncic' projected dropped from 29 to 28. Within both changes, neither carry a ton of weight in terms of certainty. The Spurs defense is good, but Doncic hitting shots will change the entire dynamic of how San Antonio wants to defend Dallas.
For the Grizzlies and Wizards, there are only a select few players that will be controlling the offense. Bradley Beal, Russell Westbrook, Ja Morant, and Jonas Valanciunas. These are the only players that have proved themselves on a nightly basis, to be worthy of high-usage games. If these players have props open, take the over because the upside is there.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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WAS @ MEM
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 33.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 23.5 Points
Let's take a small peek at the Grizzlies roster. Brandon Clarke, Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, Justise Winslow, Jonas Valanciunas....
Even if those six players were on the court, and Bradley Beal was alone, I'm not entirely sure they could stop him. Truthfully, they might not even be able to limit him. So, based on direct matchups, Beal has a SIGNIFICANT edge. The biggest problem here is that he plays with other people who also have similar upside. Russell Westbrook is in that same situation, where there just won't be enough solid defenders on Memphis to hold him back. The biggest issue here is whether or not the supporting cast can do enough on their own to keep Beal and Westbrook within a more modest point range, below their projected.
Going over and posting the Grizzlies roster works for two reason. You see who the Wizards have to deal with individually, and you see all the tools Ja Morant has to work with. Seeing how thats like one, maybe two tools, and depending on how well that one tool is shooting, Morant is going to be stuck doing a lot of the work himself. He scored 35 last time against Washington and even though that efficiency won't repeat, he'll get the same chances.
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SAS @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 28.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) MORE 19.5
The last time these two teams faced was January 22nd, and the Mavericks had Josh Green, Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr. in the starting lineup. With how much has changed since then, with Dallas' now starting lineup focusing more on Doncic' ability to play make rather than his teammates ability to create offense on their own, we can only hope Doncic is fresh heading into tonights game. There hasn't been a defensive specialist or scheme that has been viable in stopping Doncic, so even though this is the Spurs and the great Gregg Popovic, they have a much better chance forcing Doncic to shoot everything rather than letting him involve teammates early.
DeMar DeRozan, on paper, might not seem like an All-Star, but he had a small reason to be upset that he wasn't selected. San Antonio doesn't have the most talented team and LaMarcus Aldridge, who according to some was one of their star players, is barely producing off the bench. DeRozan is forced to drive or post up every possession and do what he can to get the defense moving, which he has been able to do consistently this season. Since he struggles to score and looks to pass against more dominant big men, even if Maxi Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis, and Willie Cauley-Stein were all out there roaming the paint, DeRozan might see that as more of a reason to try create a poster.
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