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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for Monday, May 10th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
This is it. The time every NBA bettor has been waiting for, the last six percent of the season. If you have made it this far without pulling your hair out at late lineup announcements, injuries, or just the general variance of basketball, applaud yourself. Chances are you are alone and only a select few are still risking it on end of the season NBA games.
Regardless, teams are still giving their full effort, and if you don't believe that, maybe you should have watched the Suns-Lakers game Sunday night. Although Los Angeles was without LeBron James, the Suns nearly completed a comeback despite Anthony Davis doing everything he could to carry this Lakers squad. With only six games on Monday's slate, there's only one out-of-conference game (Milwaukee v. San Antonio) that should be almost entirely avoided.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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WAS @ ATL
Russell Westbrook (WAS) MORE 27.5 Points - Trae Young (ATL) LESS 24.5 Points
With these lines likely to change, betting on Russell Westbrook has been a wild ride. Whether it's assists, rebounds, points, or any mix of the three, Westbrook seldom disappoints from a statistical perspective. He might not lead the team in scoring every night, he has Beal to thank for that, but his overall production has been just as good as it's ever been. While the Wizards still have a chance to fight for a playoff spot, whether it's Westbrook or Beal in this spot, the under is something I'd stay far, far away from.
Trae Young, on the other hand, isn't in the same boat. He hasn't lost his knack for scoring, but he's averaging a double-double with a usage rate just below his season average. This trend should continue and Young will be Atlanta's go-to guy for a while, his point totals just aren't as consistent as we need them to be. Washington's defense could use some help, but seeing how he will face this team again later in the week, look for him to utilize the rest of the Hawks offense after dropping 41-points on the Wizards earlier in the season.
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NOP @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) LESS 22.5 Points - Lonzo Ball (NOP) MORE 17.5
There's a reason why the Grizzlies aren't in the playoffs right now. Their best player is not capable of scoring enough points to keep them afloat each night, and while it's tough to put all that blame on Ja Morant, he's commanding nearly 25% of the team's usage each night and barely scoring over 10 points consistently. With the end of the season looming, it's hard to see a turnaround happening against the Pelicans interior defense.
Lonzo Ball's role has changed this season and while most box-score bandits will tell you he regressed, his first year as a shooting guard went fairly well. Over the last week his usage has skyrocketed and although it hasn't made him a 25-point-per-game scorer, the attempts are there. Players will have bad games, but with Ball doing as much as he is for this team, the Grizzlies defense will allow Ball plenty of space to score.
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MIL @ SAS
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 29.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) LESS 22.5
Even though it was stated earlier to avoid this game, MonkeyKnifeFight.com only has four games posted as of right now. Normally, I would include another game here and just post in the morning, but a tooth extraction will keep my busy for most of the morning. To be fair, getting a tooth pulled sounds way more fun than trying to bet on this game that ultimately doesn't matter, not to mention this will be the first game of a back-to-back for the Bucks. There's good reason to have confidence in DeMar DeRozan scoring against a good defense, but until we get a better idea of what will happen with the Bucks, it's better to wait closer to game time. In a vacuum, the over for both is the way to go.
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UTA @ GSW
Stephen Curry (GSW) MORE 33.5 Points - Bojan Bogdanovic (UTA) MORE 22.5 Points
If it involves Steph Curry, you take the over. Simple as that. If it involves Bojan Bogdanovic, who has only scored more than 20-points once against the Warriors since 2019, you have to respect his recent scoring trend. All his stats are seeing increases lately, and with the Jazz holding the top spot in the West, Bogdanovic has been and will continue to be the driving force for the offense.
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