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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Bills vs Patriots Monday game in Week 13 (2021). Dan Fornek analyzes the MNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
Week 12 was another week featuring mostly a disappointing Monday Night Football matchup from a fantasy perspective. Antonio Gibson was stellar (29 carries for 111 yards and seven receptions for 35 yards) and J.D. McKissic found the end zone twice before getting knocked out with an injury. Outside that (and a decent fantasy performance from Russell Wilson with 247 yards and two touchdowns), there wasn’t much to get excited about. Unfortunately, this week’s Monday night game could very well be another fantastic football game that is a headache for fantasy players.
New England will head into Buffalo leading the AFC East and second in the AFC playoff race behind stellar play from Mac Jones. The rookie out of Alabama is completing 70% of his passes and has nearly 3,000 passing yards with a 2 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio through 12 games. The Patriots utilize a multi-faceted rushing attack, with Damien Harris (154 carries for 643 yards and eight rushing touchdowns) leading the way. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (76 carries for 351 yards and three touchdowns) has also carved out a significant role in the run game the last few weeks. The Patriots’ passing attack is led by Jakobi Meyers (90 targets, 59 receptions, 620 yards, one touchdown) is their leading receiver this season, but five other players have at least 40 targets, 25 receptions, and a receiving touchdown this season.
Buffalo’s offense has struggled to maintain the high-level consistency they showed in 2020, but they are still a very dangerous and explosive attack. Josh Allen is still completing 66% of his passes this season (he was at 69% last season) and has 3,071 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on the season. Like 2020, Buffalo features an unexceptional rushing attack. No ball-carrier in Buffalo has over 98 carries or 500 rushing yards and the only player with more than three rushing touchdowns has been a healthy inactive twice this season (Zack Moss). Four players have at least 40 targets for Buffalo, led by Stefon Diggs (101) and two players (Diggs and Dawson Knox) have seven receiving touchdowns. This should be a great game with the AFC East on the line.
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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
- Game time: Monday, December 6th, 8:15 p.m.
- Game line: Buffalo -2.5
- Game total: 43.5
Must Starts for Fantasy Football
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen has been inconsistent this season but comes into Week 13 on a high note. Allen completed 82% of his passes for 260 yards and four touchdowns against the Saints on Thanksgiving night. Allen also added eight carries for 43 yards in the Bills victory. Allen is having a strong 2021 season even though there has been some clear regression from his stellar 2020 campaign. Given the bye weeks and his fantasy draft standing coming into the season, Allen is locked into the starting lineup for fantasy managers in Week 13. The fourth-year starter has had mixed results against New England in his career, completing 56% of his passes for 1,052 yards and seven touchdowns to six interceptions while adding 31 carries for 157 yards and two touchdowns. New England has been stellar against quarterbacks this season, allowing just 12 fantasy points per game and generating more interceptions (19) than touchdowns surrendered (14).
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Jakobi Meyers functions as New England’s primary weapon in the passing attack and gets to face a Buffalo defense that will be attempting to acclimate Tre’Davious White. Buffalo still has a strong secondary, but will likely have to rearrange their secondary to find a new configuration that works. Meyers has at least four targets in every game this season and has four receptions in 11 of 12 games. Meyers has only one career touchdown, but he sees enough passing volume to offset the lack of scoring upside. Buffalo is the best defense in fantasy against wide receivers this season (13.5 fantasy points per game) but will have an adjustment period in their first game without their best corner. Meyers is a WR2 or FLEX play heading into this week, especially given how many good players are on bye in Week 13.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs had a mediocre start to the season but has really come on lately. Since Week 5, Diggs has had 54 targets, 39 receptions, 473 yards, and six touchdowns. Diggs is averaging nine targets, 6.5 receptions, and 78.8 yards per game during that stretch with four games over 70 receiving yards. Diggs drew a tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore in Week 13 and produced seven receptions on nine targets for 74 yards and a touchdown. Diggs will once again be challenged by an opposing corner this week in New England’s J.C. Jackson, but he’s a must-start given his essential role in Buffalo’s passing attack.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox has been targeted inconsistently this season, but still comfortably resides inside the top-10 for the tight end position thanks to a ridiculously high touchdown rate. Knox has four or fewer targets in six of nine games this season, but he has found the end zone in five different games, including two games with multiple scores. Knox is probably the most dangerous touchdown threat for Buffalo in the red zone (outside of Josh Allen’s rushing ability) even with his modest target totals in the passing game. New England allows the fifth-fewest points per game to tight ends in 2021 (5.2), but all it takes for Knox to have value is a trip to the end zone. He remains a must-start with the tight end position once again lacking consistent producers this season.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Like Knox, Henry had an impressive string of touchdowns earlier in the season to entrench himself in the top-10 mix for the tight end position. From Weeks 4 to 10, Henry caught 21 of 29 targets for 244 yards and seven touchdowns. However, the touchdowns have dried up in recent weeks, leading to Henry catching just four of eight targets for 41 yards. Thankfully, Henry is still running the same amount of routes per game as he has all season (19 routes run per game according to playerprofiler.com), so the lack of production isn’t due to a higher blocking rate. Like New England, Buffalo has done a great job of limiting opposing tight ends this season (5.3 fantasy points per game, fourth-best in the NFL). However, Henry, like Dawson Knox, should be started because of the touchdown upside he provides at a position where production is inconsistent.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Mac Jones has been getting plenty of love throughout media this week for his steady play that is leading Patriots to the top seed in the AFC. Jones is coming off his second game this season with at least 300 passing yards and two touchdowns. In total, the rookie out of Alabama is completing 70% of his passes and has five games with at least two touchdown passes and 270 passing yards. Jones has been great, but Buffalo will provide a test that the rookie has yet to see this season. Buffalo is allowing just 10.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season and has 16 interceptions compared to eight touchdowns surrendered. Buffalo is the only team that has given up fewer than 10 passing touchdowns this season and is second in the NFL in interceptions. Jones has been great, but is an easy fade against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
The Patriots backfield is a mess this season now that Rhamondre Stevenson has carved out a role in the rushing attack. Damien Harris played in just 37% of New England’s offensive snaps in Week 12, carrying the ball 11 times for 40 yards and catching his only target for 12 yards. Thankfully, Harris was able to salvage his day in fantasy with a rushing touchdown against the Titans. The Bills are allowing a misleading 16.2 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. If you remove Jonathan Taylor’s 50-point outburst in Week 11, then Buffalo is allowing 12.4 fantasy points per game to running backs, which would be the best mark in the league. Harris a fade this week thanks to a tough matchup and three-way split in the backfield.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
Rhamondre Stevenson had a solid stretch of games while Damien Harris was limited with injuries. From Weeks 9 to 11, Stevenson totaled 42 carries for 231 yards and two touchdowns. He also added seven receptions on eight targets for 64 yards. Stevenson only has one game with more than a 34% snap share on offense and that was when Harris was out with an injury. Last week, the rookie played in 33% of the snaps and had just nine carries for 46 yards. The three-way backfield lowers his ceiling and the matchup against Buffalo greatly hurts his floor.
Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Zack Moss has had a terribly disappointing sophomore season for the Buffalo Bills. Moss was a healthy scratch against the New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. That came one week after Moss played in 29% of the team’s snaps against Indianapolis in Week 11 and totaled just three carries for five yards. Moss hasn’t had double-digit carries since Week 5 and has one target in the last two weeks combined. New England is a middle-of-the-road team against running backs this season (17.4 points per week), but Moss doesn’t have a consistent enough role to warrant a spot in fantasy lineups at this point in the season.
Jonnu Smith (TE, NE)
Jonnu Smith ran double-digit routes for the first time in two weeks against the Titans in Week 12. That resulted in four targets, three receptions, and 49 yards. It was the first time since Week 7 Smith had more than two targets and over 45 receiving yards. Offensive line injuries have forced the Patriots to utilize Smith as a blocker more than a pass-catcher this season, but they are finally starting to get healthy. Unfortunately, Buffalo has one of the best pass-rushing units in the league this season, which could mean more blocking duties for Smith once again.
Upside Plays for Fantasy Football
Matt Breida (RB, BUF)
Matt Breida is starting to carve out an established role in Buffalo’s rushing attack. Breida has put together consecutive weeks with at least a 32% snap share on offense. During that stretch, Breida has led the Bills’ rushing attack with 14 carries for 77 yards and three receptions on four targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. Breida has struggled with injuries in recent seasons but is showing that he can still be highly effective when healthy. He’s got interesting upside against an average Patriots’ run defense, especially if his role in the passing attack grows.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Devin Singletary paced Buffalo’s backfield last week against the New Orleans Saints, playing in 68% of the team’s snaps with Zack Moss inactive. Singletary carried the ball 15 times for 44 yards and added one reception for four yards. Singletary is a limited athlete and has given up passing downs and red zone opportunities to Matt Breida since his role in the offense has expanded. If Moss is inactive again, expect Singletary to get a consistent workload. He has great FLEX upside if he’s able to fall into the end zone against New England.
Brandon Bolden (RB, NE)
Brandon Bolden makes up the final player in New England’s three-man backfield. Bolden has taken on James White’s pass-catching role since his injury. Since Week 8, Bolden has caught all 11 of his targets for 134 yards and added 12 carries for 87 yards. Bolden really thrives in negative game scripts, so if you anticipate Buffalo racing out to a lead, then he’s an excellent FLEX play in PPR leagues. If this game is close (or New England is able to get a lead), then it is hard to justify fitting Bolden into your fantasy lineups.
Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE)
Kendrick Bourne has quietly had a great first season in New England. Through 12 weeks, Bourne is the WR24 in PPR leagues and is averaging 12.1 fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, Bourne has at least four targets, three receptions, and 34 yards in every game. Bourne has three touchdowns in his last three weeks and is coming off a two-touchdown game in Week 12. Bourne is being highly productive despite playing in less than 55% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps the last eight weeks. The Bills were allowing 13.5 fantasy points per game with Tre’Davious White at corner, but they could also go out of their way to take Bourne and his big-play ability away from Mac Jones this week. Bourne is likely a WR3 or FLEX play against the Bills’ stifling defense this week.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders is Buffalo’s deep threat receiver but has been held in check the last three weeks. Sanders has been targeted 10 times since Week 9, catching eight passes for 81 yards. Sanders has two games with two touchdowns this season but hasn’t found the end zone since Week 5 against Kansas City. New England will do their best to limit big plays but may struggle with starting safety Kyle Dugger on the COVID-19 list. Sanders just needs to hit one long score to be a strong FLEX play. The Patriots are allowing just 18.8 fantasy points per game, but will likely have their best corner covering Stefon Diggs for a majority of the game.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Cole Beasley has struggled to replicate his massive performances from last season. Beasley has just four games with double-digit targets this season and just one game with more than 100-receiving yards. He’s scored only once this year, giving up the red zone work to Dawson Knox. In his last three games, Beasley has just 12 targets, 11 receptions, and 84 yards. Beasley will likely draw the best cornerback matchup out of the slot this week, which could make him the most productive receiver for Buffalo this week.
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