RADIO
JB's top MLB daily fantasy baseball starting pitchers for FanDuel, DraftKings on 6/5/16. Top value and sleeper picks for DFS and seasonal fantasy baseball streamers.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Today we look to cap off a weekend full of top tier starting pitchers, as we have yet again a slate loaded with big names on the mound. As with every Sunday in the MLB, there is a full 15 games today, with eight "early" contests, five immediately following in the early afternoon, and two evening games with Rockies versus Padres at prime time. As previously mentioned, there are plenty of solid streaming options today, too many for me to write up actually. Jake Arrieta and the Cubs (-295) are the largest favorites today over the Diamondbacks. Two recommended starts that I will not be going into detail on are: Scott Kazmir versus Atlanta Braves (I am literally just too tired of writing about how bad the Braves offense is) and Lance McCullers versus Oakland Athletics. But, with every recommended start, there are also pitchers to fade. Some obvious fades that I do not want to insult your intelligence by analyzing, are: both pitchers from the Boston versus Toronto game, Patrick Corbin versus Chicago Cubs, Derek Holland versus Seattle Mariners, and Jake Peavy versus St. Louis Cardinals.
In this article, I’ll be providing you with the top starting pitcher streamers for daily fantasy baseball (DFS) and for seasonal leagues for 6/5/16. These streamers will range from high-priced / high-ownership options to low-priced / low-ownership options, and will be sleepers and value picks for your cash games and GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel, and also for seasonal leagues with daily lineups.
There'll be three main sections of this article: our Pitcher Matchups Tool’s top plays, my value plays, and pitchers to fade. I highly recommend you check out the Daily Pitcher Matchups Ratings tool - it's an extremely useful tool for daily fantasy or seasonal streaming for finding the diamonds in the rough. Anyways, let's get rowdy.
Daily Pitcher Matchup Ratings Tool Top Plays
Jose Fernandez, MIA versus New York Mets
FanDuel: $11,300/ DraftKings: $13,400
JoFer is the league leader in K/9 (12.77), K% (36.0), and owns the third best SIERA (2.77). Over his last five starts, he has allowed three total runs, while striking out 49 batters in only 34 innings. He is ridiculously hot right now, and the Mets rank 25th in runs scored against RHP. Lucas Duda, Travis d'Arnaud, and David Wright are all on the disabled list, and now even Yoenis Cespedes is questionable for today's game with a sore hip. Fernandez is the best cash option available today.
Matt Harvey, WSH versus Miami Marlins
FanDuel: $7,500/ DraftKings: $7,500
I was surprised that neither of the two sites hiked Harvey's price up after his gem against the White Sox Monday. But since they did not, it leaves The Dark Knight as an intriguing GPP play against the 22nd ranked offense versus RHP today. This will most certainly be a low, low scoring game, and Harvey will rack up a few strikeouts. The main issue here is, I can say with almost 100% confidence, that he will not be walking away with a W in this game. So it makes more sense to use Harvey as a second pitcher on DraftKings today, instead of having him alone and unafraid on FanDuel.
Jake Arrieta, CHC versus Arizona Diamondbacks
FanDuel: $12,000/ DraftKings: $12,900
It is very rare to have a day in DFS where Arrieta is pitching, and not the best option available. Don't get me wrong, he is a very safe play, especially with Patrick Corbin on the mound for the opposing team. But he is striking out far fewer batters than Jose Fernandez (9.0 K/9), and his impressive 1.57 ERA is deflated considering his 84.9 LOB% and .213 BABIP (3.36 SIERA). Plus, he is walking 3 batters per nine in 2016, compared to only 1.89 last season. He faced the DBacks way back in early April and gave up three runs on eight hits in seven innings, striking out six. Like I said, he is a safe play as he always is, I just don't see nearly as much upside as I do with JoFer today. There's no way I'm playing Arrieta over Fernandez on FanDuel today, and wouldn't be overly excited choosing him on DraftKings just to save $500.
JB’s Value Plays of the Day
Jon Gray, COL versus San Diego Padres
FanDuel: $7,000/ DraftKings: $8,100
Jon Gray is my favorite GPP play today. He is quietly having a very solid 2016 campaign, whiffing 9.73 batters per nine innings and his 3.36 xFIP suggest he has been rather unlucky with a .328 BABIP, 60.7 LOB%, and 15.6 HR/FB%. A lot of that is expected when half of your games are played in Coors Field, but today, Gray will enjoy the friendly confines of PETCO Park. The Padres offense continues to struggle, rankings 26th in runs scored, 29th in OPS, and 27th in strikeouts against RHP this season.
Justin Verlander, DET versus Chicago White Sox
FanDuel: $9,000/ DraftKings: $11,700
If you are looking for a safe alternative to the high ownership percentages of Fernandez and Arrieta today, these next two guys are where you need to look. Verlander has pitched very well this season, owning a 3.43 FIP and a 9.58 K/9 through 11 starts. Today he squares off against a White Sox offense that yesterday could only muster three runs off Mike Pelfrey, who entered the game win-less with a 1.77 WHIP. Over the last seven games, they rank 25th in runs scored, and have the 27th lowest OPS against RHP in 2016. Verlander is safe enough to be used in cash games today, and possesses the upside with a low enough price on FanDuel to be considered for GPPs as well. Beware of the weather for this game.
Aaron Nola, PHI versus Milwaukee Brewers
FanDuel: $9,100/ DraftKings: $11,000
The second safe JoFer/Arrieta alternative today is Aaron Nola. I am not sure if you all are aware, but Nola's SIERA is lower than that of every qualified MLB starting pitcher- not named Clayton, Noah, or Jose. Along with his incredible SIERA and 9.5 K/9, he also owns the fourth lowest K/BB in the league. Today he'll pitch against the offense with the second most strikeouts versus RHP. Nola faced off against Milwaukee in late April, and threw seven innings of one run ball with seven strike outs. I don't like him as much as Verlander today, but the $700 difference on DraftKings could be useful during hitter selections. Beware of the weather for this game.
Starting Pitchers to Fade in Daily Fantasy Baseball
Drew Smyly, TB and Tyler Duffey, MIN
Both of the pitchers in this game should be used fairly heavily today in GPP games due to the tasty match-ups on paper. The Twins rank 29th in runs scored against LHP, and the Rays rank 27th against RHP. But at this current time, I have no confidence in either of these arms. I am not the only one. as this game is pegged with one of the highest predicted runs total of the day. Smyly has allowed 13 runs in his last two games, allowing three HR in 10 IP, and owns the highest FB% in the league among starting pitchers. Duffey has been torched three games in a row, allowing 16 runs over his last 16 innings. Not to mention the expected 16 MPH wind blowing out to left field at game time. Smyly is more expensive than Harvey and Jon Gray, while Duffey's prices are a little more reasonable (FanDuel: $5,900/ DraftKings: $7,900). I won't be using either one today.
Jose Quintana, CWS versus Detroit Tigers
FanDuel: $9,300/ DraftKings: $11,200
There is no way I am using another White Sox southpaw against the Tigers a day after they score four runs on nine hits in 6.1 IP off Chris Sale, and only struck out twice. I don't know what kind of voodoo black magic that is, but I won't be messing with it. Not to mention, more than half of the Tigers offense has fairly good career numbers already versus Quintana. Bottom line, you will be spending top notch money for less than top notch results. Beware of the weather for this game.
Gerrit Cole, PIT versus Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel: $9,600/ DraftKings: $7,600
Trust me, no one wants Gerrit Cole to throw a gem today more than me. But something is not right with him this season. His strikeouts are well below his career average, and his walks and contact percentages are up. Over his last three outings, he has allowed 26 hits in 18.1 innings. Despite his 2.72 ERA, which may falsely lead many to use him today, his 4.27 SIERA tells us that it can all come crashing down at any moment. Until he rights the ship, I will be staying far away, especially when he is priced at $9,600 on FanDuel. If you really wanted Cole on DraftKings today, at his low price, I wouldn't be completely opposed to a GPP play. But you know what they say, if you play with fire......
Full Season MLB & DFS Premium Pass
Get a Premium Pass for the entire MLB season - including the playoffs - for only $29.99. That's Premium access to over 10 tools, and over 20 valuable resources, for one incredible price. Here's a taste of what you get:
- DFS lineup picks and cheat sheets for FanDuel and DraftKings - seven days a week
- Three expert lineups: FanDuel, DraftKings, and Stack of the Day - seven days a week
- Top DFS value plays, avoids and injury updates - seven days a week
- Lineup tools: daily premium hitter and pitcher matchup ratings
All of this for just $29.99... it's simply the best deal around. No other site offers this type of deal. What are you waiting for?
Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)
Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
