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Jarod Rupp looks at possible landing spots for pitcher Blake Snell and what his 2024 fantasy baseball outlook could look like.
Blake Snell posted an MLB-best 2.25 ERA, .181 OBA, and H/9 of 5.8 in 2023 on the way to his second Cy Young award and an All-MLB Team selection. He also ranked sixth in K with 234 and second in K/9 at 11.7.
All of this makes him one of the most coveted offseason free agents, but where will he end up? There have been reports of interest from several teams, but only a few seem to be serious contenders for his services.
Early on, the Phillies were named among those interested, and so were the Dodgers. The Phillies have since re-signed Aaron Nola and the Dodgers landed Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow. Both have met with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Dodgers have expressed that they are not interested in Snell. Let's take a look at who's left in the running.
Blake Snell Possible Landing Spots
Less Likely - Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels
Seattle has been linked to the hurler as Snell has expressed interest himself in wanting to pitch there as it was his favorite team growing up. Snell was born there and attended high school just north of Seattle. The Mariners appear to be set with pitching, however, with high-quality pitchers Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert leading their rotation.
The Angels could certainly use pitching after Shohei Ohtani's exit, but have an unusually high amount of lefties already in their projected five-man rotation (Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, and Tyler Anderson), so it'd be interesting to see how that would shake out. The Angels could be appealing to Snell as well because if he can't pitch for Seattle, at least LA is still on the West Coast and he'd still be closer to home. The Angels are probably not a playoff team with their current construction though, and that may deter Snell.
More Likely - New York Mets, Boston Red Sox
As with the next few teams we'll discuss, the Mets are interested in Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but only one team will land him, so the pivot for these teams is Blake Snell. Why isn't it vice versa, where Yamamoto is the pivot if teams don't land Snell?
Well, Yamamoto is just 25 years old, whereas Snell is 31. Also, while Snell was great last season, it was just the second time he's pitched more than 180 innings in his eight-year MLB career, so there are concerns with consistency. Furthermore, despite winning the Cy Young and having all those great peripheral numbers, Snell managed to lead the entire league in walks last year with 99, so command is a concern as well.
The Mets have the money and the need for pitching though after the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander last season. Kodai Senga was great in 2023, but as it stands per RosterResource, veteran Jose Quintana is the Mets' number two starter. That's no way to go after a playoff berth.
The Red Sox would also like to land Snell if they don't get Yamamoto, as they too are a team that could use some pitching. They have playoff aspirations but have missed the postseason two years in a row now. Chris Sale leads the rotation, but hasn't topped 180 innings since 2017. Others that are currently projected to be in the rotation may be a better fit for the bullpen, such as Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck.
The Red Sox have money to spend as well, and they're going to need to spend it or this fanbase will grow restless with the front office -- again -- after becoming accustomed to making playoff appearances over the years. It's only going to get tougher though, with the Orioles ascending, the Rays and Jays remaining competitive, and the Yankees rejuvenating their lineup with the Juan Soto trade.
Most Likely - San Francisco Giants
The Giants have been aggressive in their pursuit of Yamamoto, but it's looking like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets are the leading landing spots. The Giants have already signed KBO star center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and want another frontline starter along with Logan Webb in order to remain competitive in the tough NL West. The move would make sense for them, as they would be taking Snell from a division rival. Then, looking at his career numbers against divisional foes, it makes even more sense for the Giants to lock him up:
It would make sense for Snell as, again, he would remain on the West Coast and close to home.
Blake Snell 2024 Fantasy Outlook
This is somewhat difficult to project with confidence without knowing his landing spot, but managers interested in Snell should be cautious, as 2023 was more of an outlier season than the norm. As mentioned earlier, 2023 was only the second season in which he reached 180 IP. Those two seasons aside, he doesn't have another season above 130 IP on his resume.
He would be moving from one of the more "pitcher-friendly" parks in Petco Park to a presumably more hitter-friendly environment, although Oracle Park could be considered more of a lateral move in that regard if he lands in San Francisco.
What you can count on are the strikeouts. Snell has maintained a K% of 30% or more for six straight seasons. His K-BB% has fluctuated quite a bit though over the last four seasons, going from ~22% in '20, down to ~18% in '21, back up to ~22% in '22, and then back down to ~18% in '23. His low BABIP of .256 in 2023 seemed to indicate that there wasn't a ton of luck influencing his numbers, but his 3.62 xFIP was quite a bit higher than his actual ERA, and his LOB% was a whopping 86.7% (league average 70-72%).
Add it all up and it points to some regression being due in 2024. He currently has an ADP of around 64, being drafted behind Freddy Peralta (59) and Aaron Nola (53), which doesn't seem quite right given some of their stats. But he is ahead of Max Fried (66) and Logan Webb (67), which doesn't seem quite right either given their consistency. Then again, maybe that's all fair given Snell's inconsistency!
RotoBaller is bullish on the southpaw though, ranking him at 42 overall. If he returns numbers equivalent with that ranking, he'll be a value in 2024 drafts.
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