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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for April 13th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Tuesday offers a full slate of games in Major League Baseball and Monkey Knife Fight has contests to add to the fun for all 15 games.
There are some epic pitching matchups scattered among the 15 games. Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff and the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks had a fantastic pitchers’ duel last week.
Stephen Strasburg and Jack Flaherty square off in the Washington Nationals-St. Louis Cardinals game. Pablo Lopez and Max Fried hook up in the Miami Marlins-Atlanta Braves game. Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds at Kevin Gausman and the San Francisco Giants has the potential to be a decent pitching matchup, too.
Finally, there are a couple of promising young starters going in Arizona. Oakland sends Jesus Luzardo to the mound against Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen, making his first start of 2021 after suffering a strained forearm shortly before the start of the season.
A lot of the time, I will dig into Star Shootout picks but today the focus is on a couple of specific games so here are some angles to keep in mind when playing Tuesday’s MLB action on Monkey Knife Fight.
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N.Y. YANKEES-TORONTO
MORE OR LESS
Hyun Jin Ryu LESS THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Blue Jays ace has been hovering around a strikeout per inning. In the past four seasons, he is at 8.8 strikeouts per nine and has 12 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings this season, so the question here is really whether or not he can go six innings against the Yankees. Ryu went 5 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his first start of the season and they do have a lower-than-average strikeout rate (23.5%) and while Ryu has at least six strikeouts in eight of his 14 starts for the Blue Jays, he has five or fewer in all three of his starts against the Yankees.
Jameson Taillon MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
In Taillon’s first start of the season, and first start since 2019, he struck out seven in 4 2/3 innings. Historically, hie strikeout rates are not huge, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings prior to this season, but strikeout rates have changed quite a bit since he started as a rookie in 2016. Taking on a Blue Jays lineup that strikes out more than average (26.8%) is enough to tilt this category in favor of Taillon.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. MORE THAN 2.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
There have been signs early in the season that Guerrero is ready for a breakthrough campaign. He has 4.2 MKF fantasy points per game through the first 10 games of the season and the ballpark in Dunedin does appear to be hitter friendly.
Marcus Semien LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
Toronto’s second baseman does have the advantage of hitting at the top of the order but, even so, he has 13 hits plus walks through the first 10 games. That .277 on-base percentage is not very encouraging.
DJ LeMahieu LESS THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
The Yankees second baseman has 17 total bases in 10 games and has multiple total bases in five of his 10 games so far. Going up against Ryu should be a little more challenging than merely the average game, though, so expect this to be challenging for LeMahieu.
RAPID FIRE
Aaron Judge +0.5 MKF fantasy points vs. Giancarlo Stanton
Two oft-injured Yankees sluggers make for an interesting head-to-head matchup. Judge is apparently nursing an injury but the Yankees have been vague about his status. He has produced 3.0 MKF fantasy points per game so far this season while Stanton is off to a slower start, averaging 2.2 MKF fantasy points per game. That makes Judge an easy choice as the underdog getting an extra half MKF fantasy point.
CLEVELAND-CHICAGO WHITE SOX
MORE OR LESS
Shane Bieber MORE THAN 8.5 STRIKEOUTS
Although last year’s AL Cy Young winner has been a little vulnerable in his first two starts, posting a 3.65 ERA, he has also struck out 24 in 12 1/3 innings. Tough to go against his early strikeout rates, even when facing a White Sox lineup that is better than average.
Lucas Giolito LESS THAN 8.5 STRIKEOUTS
There is a similar story going with Giolito, as he has a 4.22 ERA in his first two starts but he has whiffed 18 in 10 1/3 innings. Cleveland has a very low strikeout rate (20.6%), the second lowest in the American League, so that could make it a little more difficult for Giolito, especially if he does not go deep into the game.
Franmil Reyes 2.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
The Cleveland DH is mashing early in the season, producing nearly 4.6 MKF fantasy points per game and while a matchup against Giolito is challenging, Reyes is hitting so well right now that it is easier to picture him picking up at least three MKF fantasy points.
Yasmani Grandal LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
Grandal’s tendency to take a walk really helps him in this category. He is hitting just .182 on the season but has a .419 on-base percentage and has reached base multiple times in four of his seven games this season. However, a matchup against Bieber is going to be more difficult than average so maybe not so easy to count on Grandal reaching base a couple of times.
Cesar Hernandez LESS THAN 1.5 HITS + WALKS
The veteran infielder does hit high in the lineup but he has a .282 on-base percentage so far. With Giolito as the starting pitcher for the White Sox, it seems more likely that he comes in under this threshold.
RAPID FIRE
Jose Abreu +0.5 MKF fantasy points vs. Jose Ramirez
Am I picking against Ramirez because he went 0-for-4 when I picked him in a Star Shootout Monday? Possibly. Spite may not be the best approach to this but it’s not like Abreu, the reigning AL MVP is some journeyman. He is putting up 3.0 MKF fantasy points per game compared to Ramirez, who has 2.8 MKF fantasy points per game, so take the ‘dog plus an extra half MKF fantasy point.
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