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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The early part of the MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running as we progress into the 2024 campaign. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some really interesting matchups today. The pitching mix is deep, featuring aces, midrange starters, and worthwhile back-of-the-rotation punt arms, which will certainly lead to some interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but with a 10-game slate and so many options on the mound, there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/5/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Tarik Skubal vs. New York Yankees ($10.2K DK, $10.9K FD)
This slate is loaded with pitching options, but even so, Tarik Skubal stands out as the top option. Through six starts, the 26-year-old boasts a 2.19 xERA and 2.75 xFIP. Skubal ranks among the best in virtually every significant metric, including a .239 xwOBA, .193 xBA, 30% hard-hit rate, 85.8 MPH average exit velocity, and a 4.3% walk rate. Most importantly, he generates an elite 29.7% strikeout rate, consisting of a 35.5% chase rate and a 30.9% whiff rate. Skubal has posted at least 18.1 DK points in every outing this season, and you won't get that level of security with anybody else.
Tarik Skubal, 99mph ⛽️
And head nod...I think he's feeling it.🤣 pic.twitter.com/vy5NmrGQ2W
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 28, 2024
Skubal will take on the New York Yankees today. The Yankees lineup is among the league's scariest on paper, but they have been middle-of-the-road in most respects to begin the season. They rank 15th in baseball, scoring nearly 4.6 runs per game, including a perfectly average 100 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Jon Gray vs. Kansas City Royals ($7.3K DK, $8.4K FD)
With no shortage of premium pitching options, it's important to highlight my favorite discount arm, Jon Gray. Through seven appearances, Gray has posted a 2.48 ERA. While the advanced numbers suggest some regression, he still maintains a strong 3.44 xFIP overall. Additionally, Gray is striking out hitters at a worthwhile 25.5% rate this season. He offers a competitive upside compared to many of the more expensive pitchers on this slate but saves you enough salary to leave room for premium hitters in your lineup.
After a hot start to the campaign, the Kansas City Royals offense has cooled off considerably. They are scoring 4.7 runs per game this season, which drops down to just 3.9 runs over their last 13 contests. Overall, the Royals own a middling 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They don't strike out at an exceptional rate, but Gray doesn't need to rack up 10 strikeouts to accomplish what we need from him at that price tag.
Also Consider: Freddy Peralta, Ryan Pepiot, Luis Severino
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
CJ Abrams - SS, WSH vs. Alek Manoah ($5.9K DK, $4.2K FD)
It's time to accept the new normal with CJ Abrams. He's been one of 2024's biggest breakout performers this season, and he is producing across all categories. The 23-year-old is slashing .287/.353/.574 with seven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 157 wRC+. The advanced numbers support Abrams' breakout, including a .551 xSLG, .331 xBA, and a 43.3% sweet-spot rate. He's undoubtedly the most lethal bat in the Washington Nationals' lineup, and one of these guys should be able to take advantage today.
Sunday will mark Alek Manoah's controversial return to the big leagues. Following a tremendous 2022 performance, Manoah inexplicably fell off last season. Across 19 starts, he posted a 6.12 xERA and 5.85 xFIP, before ultimately being demoted to the minor leagues. Picking up where he left off last season, Manoah began 2024 in the minors, posting a 6.40 ERA over four starts in Triple-A, surrendering two home runs per nine innings. There is a high probability that Manoah is not ready for today.
Josh Naylor - 1B, CLE vs. Griffin Canning ($5.2K DK, $3.6K FD)
Despite a brief cold stretch, Josh Naylor is enjoying another strong campaign. He owns a .857 OPS with seven home runs and a 141 wRC+. Additionally, Naylor is due for some positive regression, according to his underlying statistics. Those numbers include a .514 xSLG, 10.1% barrel rate, and a .299 xBA.
Griffin Canning is going to be among the preferred pitchers to attack today. Through six starts, he carries a weak 5.52 ERA and a 5.24 xFIP. That includes some very generous batted-ball metrics, like a .496 xSLG, 90.5 MPH average exit velocity, and a 9.4% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .543 against Canning this season.
Josh Rojas - 3B, SEA vs. Hunter Brown ($3.2K DK, $2.8K FD)
With J.P. Crawford on the injured list, Josh Rojas has excelled as the Seattle Mariners' fill-in leadoff man. He's slashing .338/.420/.535 with three home runs and a 180 wRC+. This is the best version of Rojas we have seen in his career, and the advanced numbers support his success. He has generated a .495 xSLG, .291 xBA, and a fantastic 44.1% sweet-spot rate. Rojas is too cheap for his production level right now.
Josh Rojas, again ... His second of the series, both to lead off the 1st inning -- and against his former team.
102.8 mph off the bat, 349 feet. pic.twitter.com/MqC2PHbEIq
— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) April 28, 2024
2024 has been a massively disappointing season for Hunter Brown. Through six outings, the 25-year-old owns a horrible 9.78 ERA. The underlying numbers are more forgiving, though they are still ugly, as Brown sports a 5.04 xERA. While a 12.2% walk rate is his biggest obstacle, Brown also gets hit harder than the average pitcher, surrendering a 91.3 MPH average exit velocity, 41.6% hard-hit rate, and a .297 xBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Adolis Garcia - OF, TEX vs. Daniel Lynch IV ($5.7K DK, $3.9K FD)
Adolis Garcia continues to be one of the league's most imposing hitters. He sports a .289/.341/.545 slash line with eight home runs and a 152 wRC+. Garcia is dominating opposing pitchers to the tune of a .513 xSLG, 92.3 MPH average exit velocity, 15.1% barrel rate, and a 52.3% hard-hit rate. Further, he's slugging .625 against left-handed pitchers, up from a .504 mark last season.
Daniel Lynch IV makes his 2024 debut today, and he will be a priority pitcher to target. Lynch posted a 4.96 xERA across 27 outings last season, down from 5.07 xERA in 2022 and a 6.31 xERA during his rookie campaign. He has never been particularly successful at the major league level, which is why he opened the season in the minors. Lynch wasn't off to a particularly prosperous start in Triple-A either, featuring a 5.86 ERA across 27 2/3 innings pitched.
Tommy Pham - OF, CWS vs. Matthew Liberatore ($3.3K DK, $2.9K FD)
Tommy Pham has only been with the Chicago White Sox for eight games, though he might already be the team's best hitter. The 36-year-old is slashing .323/.364/.484 with a 150 wRC+ during that small sample size. Given his age, there might be an expectation Pham is beyond his prime, but he showed no signs of slowing down last season. Pham produced a .475 xSLG, 49.1% hard-hit rate, and a .361 xwOBA in 2023. He is an excellent value at his price tag.
Matthew Liberatore returns to the starting rotation today after pitching 16 1/3 innings out of the bullpen to open the year. While he has performed well in his reserve role, Liberatore got rocked last season as a starter, posting a 6.00 xERA. That includes giving up a .484 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters, part of a .518 career mark. Liberatore likely isn't stretched out enough to pitch deep in this game, though Pham should get a couple of opportunities against him.
Jo Adell - OF, LAA vs. Carlos Carrasco ($3K DK, $2.7K FD)
Jo Adell is another fantastic value option. He brings an impressive .835 OPS into play today, which includes four home runs and six stolen bases. Adell is crushing the ball to the tune of a .575 xSLG, 14.3% barrel rate, 51% hard-hit rate, and a .318 xBA. The 25-year-old former top prospect may finally be hitting his stride in major league baseball.
Carlos Carrasco is cooked at this point in his career. The 37-year-old sports a 6.59 ERA this season, down from a 6.80 ERA in 2023. The advanced numbers are marginally more palatable, but it still amounts to a bad pitcher. Carrasco is getting lit up by opposing hitters, surrendering a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity, 43.5% hard-hit rate, and a .444 xSLG.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Texas Rangers vs. Daniel Lynch IV
- Favorite Plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe
2. Cleveland Guardians
- Favorite Plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez
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