RADIO
Today we have 15 games going on in Major League Baseball. It can be tempting to place a lot of bets, however, I try to limit my action to no more than four to five wagers in a day. Often it is more like two or three. I find it better to place a few calculated wagers than to place a high number of them hoping to get more right than wrong. If you have read any of my other work, it may not come as a surprise that I will say that it is really important to exercise sound bankroll management and bet responsibly!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone can bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
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San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIL -110/SF -105
SF: Johnny Cueto| MIL: Brett Anderson
Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.83) vs. Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.67) looks like a pretty even matchup on paper but Cueto has the edge. Cueto is sporting a 15.9% K-BB% and a SIERA of 4.16. Anderson has a 7.6% K-BB%, has a low K% of 14.2%, and has a SIERA of 4.42. I have found K-BB% and SIERA to be more indicative of how a pitcher is actually doing in season, and I believe Anderson is due for some regression after posting a 1.20 ERA in July (vs. the Mets, Pirates, and Royals).
Outside of the starting pitchers, San Francisco has the 3rd best bullpen ERA in MLB at 3.25. Milwaukee's is solid at 10th with a 3.75 ERA. Edge goes to San Francisco.
The Giants also have an edge with their batting as they are 10th in the MLB in runs scored, while Milwaukee is 14th. In addition, Milwaukee is still relying on guys such as Rowdy Tellez and Tyrone Taylor, whereas San Francisco is getting healthier with Brandon Belt and Tommy LaStella in the order, along with the addition of Kris Bryant at the trade deadline.
The bookmakers have this game with both teams at similar odds, some books have both teams at -110. I see this as a good game, likely lower scoring, but with San Francisco having the edge in all of the phases of the game. I will take the gamble with the under here as well. If you can find a book with a 9 total, I like it much better than the 8.5 posted at many books right now.
Pick: Giants ML (-105) BetMGM, Under 8.5 Runs (+110) BetMGM
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Seattle Mariners @ Yankees
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: NYY -145
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi| NYY:Luis Gil
Yusei Kikuchi (7-6, 3.89) has one of the biggest mismatches on the slate today at favorable odds against Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00). Gil is one of the top prospects in the Yankees system, and he had a great MLB debut going 6 innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Here's the thing though: Gil is going to be inconsistent most likely at the MLB level, as most young guys will be. In AAA, Gil started 8 games and posted a 5.64 ERA. This is a spot where Gil could come back to earth.
In addition, Seattle has dropped the first three games of this series to New York, losing by a combined total of four runs. After having a tough July with a 6.11 ERA, Kikuchi had a great outing against Tampa Bay on Tuesday, going six innings, allowing one run, striking out five, and picking up the win.
Michael Simione from spstreamer.com had this Tweet that explains Kikuchi's tough month of July
Yusei Kikuchi in June:
*43.9% Cutter usage*
1.90 ERA - 3.87 FIP - 28.0 K% - 1.06 WHIP - 57.9 GB% - 12.8 SwStr%In July:
*30.3% Cutter usage*
6.11 ERA - 4.62 FIP - 29.8 K% - 1.54 WHIP - 44.3 GB% - 13.5 SwStr%Not so sure about this new pitch mix. pic.twitter.com/ZBgTVR9eWx
— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) August 3, 2021
Nevertheless, I like Kikuchi having a decent start, Gill possibly struggling a bit more in his second start, and Seattle avoiding a sweep in a series that has featured three close games, and three heartbreaking losses for Seattle. If you are wary of Seattle's close losses, this is a spot I would be OK with going with the run line of +1.5.
Pick: Mariners ML (+130) DraftKings Sportsbook or Mariners +1.5 (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook
Outside of these two games, I am not seeing much more opportunity on the slate. I like Atlanta's chances of winning, but so do the books, giving them odds of -225. I also like Oakland's chances but they are at -275 as well. I normally avoid parlays, because they are mathematically in the book's favor. Going with Atlanta + Oakland could be interesting, getting the odds down to -104 at BetMGM, if looking to have action on a third game.
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