7 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Jarod Rupp's 2026 Picks

March 25, 2026

Jarod's 7 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Kyle Tucker, Austin Riley, and Michael Busch.

As spring training wraps up and the last fantasy drafts of the 2026 MLB season take place, let's have a little fun with some bold predictions! Now, these are bold predictions, which, by their nature, are long shots. However, I'll make the case for each, and even if they don't come fully true, perhaps they can come close.

Two of my 2025 predictions came true -- Wyatt Langford to lead the Rangers in HR & SB and Junior Caminero to hit 40 home runs -- so perhaps a couple of these are actually good bets.

Even if they do not come to fruition, it should give you an idea of some of the players I think have some upside this season, which could help you in your decision-making process during drafts. Still not satisfied after reading this article? For more spicy takes, check out our other entries into Bold Predictions for this season.

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Kyle Tucker Finishes As a Top-3 Player

I'm going back to the well on Tucker after having him in my 2025 Bold Predictions article; unfortunately, injuries have limited his overall production the last two years. Even so, while Kyle Tucker had a fine season last year with the Cubs despite a calf injury that cost him much of September, he's healthy now and in a decidedly much better hitting environment in Los Angeles in 2026.

Tucker has the talent to finish near the top for fantasy. Last season, the left-handed slugger finished with a 136 wRC+, good for 11th-best in the National League, while his xwOBA of .372 was seventh-best, so some modest improvements this season could put him in a position to rise closer to the top.

From 2021 through 2024, the four-time All-Star hit .280, so his .266 average from a year ago has room for growth, especially with the amount of contact he makes. He also averaged 30 home runs from 2021 to 2023, and a fractured shin in 2024 is the only thing that prevented him from reaching that level again (he was on pace for a 40-homer season in '24!), so again, his 22 home runs from a season ago feel light.

Drop him into a lineup where he's hitting behind Ohtani and in front of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and the rest, and he could go nuclear; a season in which he puts up 100 runs and 100 RBI is well within reach. Add in his ability to steal bases, and you've got the makings of a potential .285-35-110-115-25 campaign.

The 29-year-old looks ready to go already this spring, with two Cactus League home runs and seven walks compared to just four strikeouts in 35 plate appearances.

Kyle Tucker - Los Angeles Dodgers (1)* pic.twitter.com/0CSS18136b

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) March 14, 2026

Austin Riley Finishes as the Top Third Baseman

Austin Riley was a model of consistency from 2021 to 2023, but like Tucker, injuries have limited the right-handed slugger's time on the field the last two seasons. In 2024, a hit-by-pitch in August fractured his hand, then he missed the rest of the season, and last year, he battled an abdominal injury that later required core surgery.

Austin Riley is set up for a BIG bounce-back season, and he’s already tearing it up this spring.

.371 AVG, 5 HR, 1.294 OPS

If you haven’t drafted yet, this is a guy I’m looking to grab in the 5th or 6th round.

I like him even more in category leagues.

pic.twitter.com/jpHJ0Pfyn3

— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) March 21, 2026

Thankfully, these are not usually recurring injuries, as you might see with a hamstring or shoulder injury. Healthy to start 2026, the two-time All-Star has already begun to make up for lost time, going 15-for-38 (.395) with five home runs and an 8:6 K:BB in 15 Grapefruit League contests. He's even stolen one base this spring, after not having stolen a single bag in any of his nine previous spring trainings.

While that may not move the needle for some, others may have noticed that the Braves added Antoan Richardson this offseason, the same first base/baserunning coach that helped Juan Soto go from a previous career high of 12 stolen bases to 38 steals with the Mets in 2025. Soto's sprint speed in 2025? 25.8, 13th-percentile. Riley's? 28.2, 73rd-percentile.

Riley's got enough speed to swipe at least 15 bases this season. That's not enough to catch Jose Ramirez, but combined with his HR, RBI, and run-scoring potential, along with getting back to a .280-ish average, Riley should give J-Ram a run for the top spot.

Jordan Lawlar Produces a 25/25 Season

Many have given up hope on Jordan Lawlar being a multi-category fantasy producer, as evidenced by his ADP of 260 overall in fantasy drafts, but not this author. Some will point to his .165 batting average in the majors and say he can't hit big league pitching. I would argue that it's a small sample (42 games) with one-third of his career MLB at-bats coming at the age of 20 years old. Most players don't even make it to the majors that early.

I would also argue that inconsistent playing time is another reason for not producing, as each time he was called up last season, the D-backs either used him as a pinch hitter or starts were separated by a couple of days off in between. That's no way to get into a rhythm at the plate.

At Triple-A last year, the former sixth-overall draft pick hit .313 and had an eye-popping .564 SLG, which included 22 doubles, five triples, and 11 home runs in just 63 games played. He also drew walks at an above-average rate of 12.0 percent and stole 20 bases.

Jordan Lawlar breakout szn?

Fourth homer of the spring.

Off Glasnow is legit. pic.twitter.com/U3AEnVMMGS

— Jake García (@Jake_M_Garcia) March 10, 2026

If he can tap into a little more over-the-wall power, as his prospect profile indicated he'd have some day, then a 25-homer season shouldn't be out of the question as an everyday player in the majors. He's just 23 years old and has even shown some pop this spring, with four home runs in 15 games, so perhaps we're on our way to tapping into that power.

The former top prospect also registered a 29.7 ft/second sprint speed during his time in the big leagues last year, which put him in the 98th-percentile, so if he can get on base, the steals will follow.

The only thing really standing in his way is health, which has been a problem for him over the last couple of seasons, and they have been of the nagging soft-tissue variety, so let's hope that's not a problem in 2026. Assuming it's not a problem, a 25/25 campaign could be on the horizon.

Chandler Simpson Steals 70 Bases

I borrowed this one (and the next one, too) from my very early Bold Predictions article from back in November. Some things have changed since then, so I've tweaked this one (and the next one) slightly.

He is speed.

Throwing it back to when Chandler Simpson beat out a grounder TO THE FIRST BASEMAN pic.twitter.com/fqD58tNIqI

— Durham Bulls (@DurhamBulls) October 7, 2025

In case you weren't aware of his minor league accomplishments, Chandler Simpson stole 94 bases in 2023 and 104 bases in 2024. You know who tied Simpson in 2023 with 94 steals? Victor Scott II.

While there are some similarities, make no mistake, these two are not the same hitter. Scott owned a .210 average and a 15.7 percent strikeout rate during his time at Triple-A and has produced a feeble .206 AVG with a 24.8 percent K% in the majors. On the flip side, Simpson owned a .333 AVG and 9.6 percent K% at Triple-A, then produced a .295 AVG with a 9.8 percent K% last season with the Rays.

Simpson has always posted good contact rates and high batting averages at every stop, and while he doesn't walk much, he gets on base enough with his bat to use his speed. Last year, that equated to 44 steals in 441 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, which is a .10 SB/PA. Right now, RosterResource has him projected to be on the strong side of a platoon, but after hitting .299 against LHP in '25 (32-for-107), that should not be the case as the season moves along.

Assuming that's the case and that he can hang onto the starting job in center for the entirety of the season, the 25-year-old could earn 600 or more plate appearances. With a .10 SB/PA, that's 60 steals. If he either improves on that ratio or earns even more plate appearances, his total number of steals will go up, too. Either way, he could get to 70 steals, which would be 21 more than last year's SB leader (Jose Caballero) collected.

Charlie Condon Will be 2026's Nick Kurtz

Ok, maybe not Nick Kurtz, but maybe Kurtz-Lite. Kurtz hit .386 with six doubles and seven home runs in his first 13 games at Triple-A in 2025 and was called up to the majors by late April, then would go on to hit 36 home runs in the majors and win AL Rookie of the Year. This was despite a 25.7 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A and a 30.9 percent rate with the big league club.

This is the knock on Charlie Condon -- big power with a ton of swing-and-miss. Condon has yet to play above Double-A, but recorded a 28.3 percent strikeout rate there with 11 home runs in 55 games (200 AB) in 2025. The former third-overall draft pick showed an improved K% in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) at 17.9 percent and struck out at just a 19.6 percent rate in 46 plate appearances this spring.

Charlie Condon hits this ball 115.3 MPH for his THIRD home run in four days 😳 #Rockies pic.twitter.com/pv1HFYeJYP

— Milb Central (@milb_central) February 28, 2026

While not a lot of stock can be put into the AFL and spring training, they weren't small improvements in K%; they were very sizable. If the 6-foot-6 slugger can continue to improve at Triple-A to begin the year and showcase his trademark power, then the Rockies will be hard-pressed to keep him in the minors for long, as no formidable player is blocking his path to playing time, whether it be at first base or in the outfield.

With a strong start, I think he's playing in Colorado by late April like Kurtz (or shortly thereafter) and goes Kurtz-Lite with 25-30 home runs, depending on the timing of his call-up.

Michael Busch Hits 40 Home Runs

Michael Busch was a big source of power for fantasy managers last season, finishing with 34 home runs, eight of which came over the final month of the season. With a 95th-percentile barrel rate of 17.1 percent and plenty of other strong power metrics, 2026 should bring another healthy dose of home runs. But can he get to 40?

Looking back at 2025, the left-handed slugger averaged over six home runs per month if you take away the month of May, when he only hit two. He did have his fewest monthly at-bats in May, but it wasn't far fewer than any other month. So if he can simply avoid that one big down month, then that right there could push him higher, say to 36 or 37 home runs.

But the major catalyst for reaching 40 homers will be his work against left-handed pitchers. The former first-rounder saw just 87 at-bats against LHP last year compared to 437 AB versus RHP. Manager Craig Counsell indicated earlier this month that he intends to give Busch more run against left-handers to begin the season, so presumably, if he performs well enough, this could be a season-long thing.

While he hit just .208 against LHP in 2025, he's a career .230 hitter against them (including last year's numbers), so there's a chance he outperforms that AVG from a season ago. And despite the low AVG, the former top prospect still hit four home runs in those 87 at-bats against southpaws last year, so what if he can get closer to 200 AB? That should be another handful of home runs right there.

The extra home runs might come at the expense of average, but going around pick 100, it's baked into his price already.

Bubba Chandler Has a Better Fantasy Season than Nolan McLean

This doesn't seem all that bold or far-fetched to me, but when looking at their ADPs, it would be quite the role reversal. Mclean is going around pick No. 90, while Bubba Chandler is going closer to pick No. 160, a 70-pick and at least a five-round difference in 12-team leagues.

This projection is less about McLean having a bad season and more about Chandler having a much better season than his ADP would indicate. McLean showed what he's made of in 2025, posting a 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 21.8 percent K-BB% in eight starts (48 IP). Had the right-hander pitched a full season, it is likely that the 2.06 ERA would not have held up, though. A 3.04 SIERA would suggest the same, and an 84.1 percent LOB% is probably not tenable (72.3 percent is the league average).

Of course, if McLean were to "regress" to a 3.04 ERA in 2026, that would still be a tremendous season, but the ERA will be higher than that in all likelihood. There were just 14 qualified starting pitchers who recorded ERAs less than 3.20 last year, and ATC projections for 2026 forecast the rosiest picture of all projection models for the Mets' top prospect, with a 3.70 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 153 innings.

Of course, if you just look at the projection models, Chandler's forecasts don't look nearly as good; however, he's still got the stuff to outproduce McLean this season, even if by the slightest of margins.

Bubba Chandler against the Braves:

5.0 IP | 1 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 1 BB | 8 SO #Pirates
pic.twitter.com/KbRfjb3ZRx

— Milb Central (@milb_central) March 12, 2026

Chandler's sample size in 2025 was even smaller, but outside of one very poor start (nine earned in 2 2/3 IP), he was quite good. That poor start aside, the 6-foot-3 hurler allowed five earned runs in 28 2/3 IP (1.57 ERA) with a 0.59 WHIP and a breathtaking 28:1 K:BB. The former third-round draft pick has a fastball that averaged 98.9 mph, which was in the 98th percentile, and a devastating changeup that he induced a 39.6 percent whiff rate on.

McLean's fastball doesn't really come close in terms of velocity at 95.1 mph (63rd-percentile), although he does have a more diverse arsenal and did generate a 50.0 percent whiff rate on his curveball in 2025.

Nevertheless, Chandler looked good in his final tune-up of the spring, allowing one run on one hit and one walk while striking out eight in five innings of work. There may be a surprising amount of wins in Pittsburgh this season, and the 23-year-old could be a big reason for that.

He looks ready to go, and so does this prediction!

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