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Running back James Conner signed as a free agent with the Arizona Cardinals in the 2021 offseason. Adam Koffler evaluates the fantasy football impact of this move and Conner's early draft value at RB.
Kenyan Drake signing with the Raiders back in March left a gaping hole in the Cardinals' backfield. That includes a whopping 239 rush attempts vacated, but with Chase Edmonds seemingly much better in a complementary role, it was inevitable the Cardinals would either sign a veteran or take a running back in the 2021 NFL Draft.
They opted for the former, signing former Steelers running back James Conner to a one-year, $1.25M deal.
Let's break down the implications for both Conner and Edmonds.
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Conner's Role in Arizona's Offense
At first glance, it seems easy to project the Cardinals' backfield in 2021. Conner takes on the Drake role and Edmonds stays in the role he had a season ago. But is it really that simple? Probably not.
Conner operated as the Steelers' "bell-cow" for the better part of three seasons. When healthy, he was used on all three downs and saw plenty of work as a pass-catcher. However, the move to Arizona likely takes away some of his pass-catching opportunities since that is where Edmonds excels.
Conner hasn't exactly been the poster child for health in his career with the Steelers. He's missed a total of 12 games the past three seasons. While it's impossible to predict future injuries, it's highly unlikely the Cardinals give him the workload they gave Drake last season. Drake received almost 16 carries per game, similar to what the Steelers gave Conner in 2018 (16.5 carries per game). Since then, Conner has averaged just 12.4 carries per game.
At this point in his career, he's probably best equipped to handle a workload at or even below 12.4 carries per game than he is 16.5 carries per game. So what happens to the other four or five carries? Well, they likely go to Edmonds, who has received some very high praise from head coach Kliff Kingsbury this offseason.
Conner 16-game projection: 160 carries for 672 yards and six TD, 25 receptions for 150 yards, and one TD.
Edmonds Set to Take on Expanded Role
Edmonds didn't play on over 45% of the snaps last season until a pivotal Week 7 matchup vs. the Seahawks. In that game, he rushed five times for 58 yards and caught 7-of-7 targets for another 87 yards on 60% of the snaps. From Week 7 on, Edmonds played on over 45% of the snaps in all but one game. It was clear he had earned the trust of the coaching staff.
He took over as the primary pass-catching back in 2020, seeing 67 targets compared to just 21 and 23 the previous two seasons. He finished his 3rd year with 164 total opportunities (97 carries + 67 targets). Based on his increased workload year-over-year, and the high praise from the coaching staff, one should expect Edmonds to see even more work in his 4th year with the Cardinals.
As mentioned above, we shouldn't expect Conner to come in and take on a workload similar to Drake, so in theory, there's more work for Edmonds on the ground. Cardinals running backs (primarily Drake and Edmonds) carried the ball 22 times per game. If we're projecting Conner around 10-11 carries per game, that leaves the other 10-11 carries for Edmonds, which would be a sizeable uptick from his 6.1 carries per game in 2020.
Edmonds 16-game projection: 160 carries for 725 yards and four TD, 45 receptions for 350 yards and three TD
2021 Outlook
There weren't many places Conner could land to salvage his fantasy value. Arizona, however, was one of those spots with Drake leaving for Las Vegas. While he's not likely to come in and be a feature back like he once was, he's got enough of an opportunity to be a solid weekly flex play as long as he can stay healthy.
Edmonds on the other hand looks like somewhat of a winner with the Conner signing. With the Cardinals having just two of the first 159 picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, it's highly unlikely they'll spend their first or second-round pick on a top running back this season. If we believe in coach-speak and his upward trajectory year-over-year, expect Edmonds to surpass his RB25 finish in PPR leagues a season ago. With Conner's injury-riddled past, it wouldn't be surprising to see Edmonds finish within the top-20 running backs in PPR leagues in 2021.
As for the Steelers, they just brought in journeyman Kalen Ballage on a one-year deal, but don't be surprised if they go with a running back early in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Steelers' running backs currently under contract are Benny Snell Jr., Jaylen Samuels, Anthony McFarland Jr., and Ballage.
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