Friday Focus: Buy Or Sell Hitters

May 7, 2021

Kyle Bishop looks at six pitchers whose early season struggles are weighing on fantasy baseball managers in this edition of the Friday Focus.

On Thursday, the news broke that the Angels had designated Albert Pujols for assignment. At 41, the former MVP hasn't been fantasy relevant in years, and his days as a perennial monster more or less ended when he left St. Louis a decade ago. This development made me feel old, as Pujols debuted when I was barely a teenager.

I might have spent the next several hundred words reminiscing about Pujols and the cruel vagaries of time, but I pretty much already did that with Miguel Cabrera a few years ago. True, Miggy is still plugging away for a basement-dwelling Tigers team, but it was clear at the time that article was written that he was entering the twilight of his career. And unlike Cabrera, Pujols rarely found his way onto any of my fantasy rosters, so the connection is more tenuous.

The potential end of Pujols' career (his agent says he wants to keep playing, and you'd think at least one team might roll the dice, but who knows at this point) did inspire some looking backwards, though. In my first couple of years as a columnist here at RotoBaller, I wrote a weekly buy or sell column. It's no longer a regular feature 'round these parts, at least in that form. But as we approach the middle of the season's first half, it seems an appropriate exercise. We'll consider the rest-of-season outlooks for sizzling starts from unexpected sources throughout the league. Bats today, pitchers next week.

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Buys

Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Mullins garnered an honorable mention in this space a few weeks ago when identifying players I was most upset to have missed the boat on rosters. Luckily, somebody cut him in one of my leagues not long after and I was able to snatch him up. The expected BABIP regression has mostly happened, and he's still hitting .320. The pop might be enough to make a 20/20 season feasible, and he's locked down the leadoff spot in Baltimore. The decision to abandon switch-hitting appears to have paid off. End of season prediction: .285 AVG, 85 R, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB

Carson Kelly, C, Arizona Diamondbacks

There have been a handful of great offensive performances from backstops who were afterthoughts in drafts this year, including Buster Posey and Yadier Molina (WhatYearIsIt.gif). Kelly has been the most impressive, however, with a .470 wOBA that, according to Statcast, he's earned every bit of. Looking at his track record, you might expect a little bit of pullback on the power, but he's barreling the ball more often and being more selective than we've ever seen. A well-regarded prospect who's still just 26 years old, Kelly is a strong bet for a top-five season at his position. End of season prediction: .275 AVG, 67 R, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 1 SB

Sells

Jared Walsh, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

Walsh, along with Shohei Ohtani, has been good enough that the Halos put Pujols out to pasture. Since the start of last season, he has a .980 OPS. But that's across fewer than 230 plate appearances, and while his expected numbers are still quite good, they aren't in the same stratosphere. His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate are all actually the lowest marks of his career thus far, making a .391 BABIP stick out even more than it otherwise might. End of season prediction: .270 AVG, 70 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 0 SB

Tyler Naquin, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Statcast doesn't doubt Naquin's start, but I can't get there with him. I don't trust the newfound plate discipline and need more evidence to conclude that he's solved lefties. He's clearly a liability in center field, and if his hitting regresses to the level we saw in his first 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, it'll be tough to justify keeping him out there every day. Shogo Akiyama is nearing a return and though Nick Senzel is struggling right now, he's still got pedigree and proponents in the organization. End of season prediction: .255 AVG, 55 R, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 5 SB

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