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Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 2/26/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.
It was a rough night for player props (0-3), but I went 3-1 on totals and spreads with the only miss there being a big whiff on the Raptors who got blown out by the Hornets. There were some sweaty moments in there as the Spurs needed three overtimes to finally put Washington away and only covered by a point and Dallas only covered by a mere half-point, losing by five after leading the entire game in Utah. The Sixers looked great and dominated the Wolves in Harden's debut, crushing their team total. I don't often do this piece on Saturdays, but we had so much time off over the break that I felt like making some more picks for you today!
I just want to briefly thank all of you for reading this column and my other NBA content. Your readership and support mean everything to me and I was in shock Thursday when it was announced I was selected as the FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year. I promise that won't go to my head and you can continue to count on sound DFS, seasonal, and betting advice from me going forward here at RotoBaller!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 101-94-2
- Against the Spread 57-45-2
- Over/Under 23-33
- Other/Props 21-16
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Memphis Grizzlies (+1.5) @ Chicago Bulls (236.5 total)
This is by far the best game on the slate tonight as two powerhouse teams face off in a game with the biggest total on the board. It's a game that I expect to be very competitive and Vegas agrees as the Bulls have been installed as slight favorites at home.
Something has to give here as the Bulls have the best record ATS at home this season while the Grizzlies sport the best road record. This game is really a coin flip for me and likely comes down to the last few possessions. Will DeMar DeRozan continue to be the lethal closer that he's been for Chicago and make a push for the MVP or will Ja Morant be the one with the last-minute heroics?
I'm siding with Memphis here. Despite dropping two straight, they still have the second-best net rating in the NBA over their last ten games (behind the red-hot Celtics) and I think their overall depth is an issue for Chicago, a team that still isn't getting much from their bench while Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso continue to be shelved with injuries. The Grizzlies owe us some money from the other night and I look for them to snap their losing streak and pick up a big road win here against the Bulls.
The Pick: Grizzlies ML (+100)
Toronto Raptors (+2) @ Atlanta Hawks (225 total)
My brain had to force my heart to include Toronto in my picks today. They were absolutely dominated by Charlotte from the outset last night in a game that was never close. I'm not sure if it was because they really missed OG Anunoby's defensive presence or if Fred Van Vleet was just really rusty after missing a few games before the break. But I am willing to chalk it up as a very fluky outcome for a team that was red-hot going into the break.
They have a great chance to redeem themselves tonight against the Hawks. Atlanta continues to be without John Collins and dropped a tight game to the Bulls on Thursday night. They lost DeAndre Hunter early in that game but he appears ready to return to the court tonight. I've said this before, but Atlanta goes the way of Trae Young on a nightly basis. When Trae struggles to score, they simply don't have enough offense to overcome it - even with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic stepping up recently.
Toronto has beaten Atlanta twice this season already (I know I said that about the Hornets yesterday, too) and their trends are too good to ignore as they've been solid on the road this season (17-11 ATS, even after the loss last night) and they're an impressive 9-2 ATS with no rest. The blowout last night allowed the Raptors to rest their core guys in the fourth quarter so the fatigue factor really shouldn't be much of an issue. If there was a silver lining in that loss last night, it was that Scottie Barnes scored 28 points and they'll likely need him to step up in a big way to help fill the void left by Anunoby's absence.
The Pick: Raptors ML (+110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (+7) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (209 total)
My Cavs have fallen on some hard times again as they lost to Detroit the other night and lost yet another point guard to injury as Rajon Rondo is now out for a few weeks. They'll likely start Brandon Goodwin tonight, who has been a solid performer as a spot starter and reserve when called upon this year and Goodwin will need to help score the ball as the Cavs rely so heavily on point guard production with the huge hole they have at shooting guard (LeVert is also injured and Okoro just isn't a scorer).
The good news for the Cavs is that Lauri Markkanen returned from a long absence to score 22 points on Thursday and will help fill the offensive void left by Garland and LeVert. They'll need Kevin Love to provide some offense off the bench, too, which is something he's done all year but failed to do against Detroit.
With the Wizards having played a triple-overtime game last night (in which they allowed over 150 points to the Spurs), Cleveland's lackluster offense should get a boost. The trends back up the model today as the Wizards have had their game totals go over seven out of eight times this season in the second half of back-to-backs. This total just feels way too low for an NBA game with the recent trends showing more scoring, not less.
The Pick: OVER 209 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs (+7.5) @ Miami Heat (224.5 total)
I'm looking at some similar trends here in this one as both Miami and San Antonio played last night. As I already mentioned, the Spurs took three overtimes to beat the Wizards and while they have a relatively deep rotation, their starters (besides McDermott) all played 40+ minutes. Meanwhile, the Heat scored 115 points against the Knicks, a team that plays a considerably slower pace and better defense than San Antonio.
The Heat are 8-1 at going over their game totals on no rest. That tells me that their defense could be more vulnerable than usual here and that's a good thing for this over. While the Heat are solid home favorites here, I think the Spurs can compete and force Miami to have to put up a large number of points to pull away and win. Despite my model still spitting out mainly unders, I'm leaning harder on the trends (especially recent trends) that have me betting several overs tonight. This one looks good to go over, too.
The Pick: OVER 224.5 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
I'm going to lay off the props today and focus on the main picks. I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
No teasers or parlay picks today but feel free to use my projections to build some of your own!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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