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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Thursday, July 20, 2023. Use Casey Wilson's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
I am back again today for more player props after going 1-2 in yesterday's article. That is one of the first times in a long time here writing pieces I have had a losing day. We are 3-2 so far in the week, so let's close this thing out strong and get back to our winning ways. We have two strikeout props today and, as always, my hit parlay.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, July 20, 2023. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Blake Snell OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings Sportsbook)
This line on FanDuel is already up to 6.5 strikeouts, so I would advise you to jump on this as soon as possible. Snell has turned it on since June 1 and has arguably been the best pitcher in the big leagues. During that period, Snell has a 2.53 SIERA, 43.1% K%, and 18.7% SwStr%. Snell has struck out six or more batters in ten straight starts.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a formidable offense, especially against left-hand pitching. They own a 19.4% K%, a 98 wRC+, .311 wOBA, and a .378 SLG on the season. Since June, it’s been a different story. In that span, the Blue Jays own a 22.5% K%. I will buy into the recent trends with Blake Snell and the Blue Jays here and smash this before it gets to 6.5. It is an apparent mispricing by DraftKings this morning.
Andrew Abbott OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-135 DraftKings SportsBook)
The regression monster has attacked Andrew Abbott over his last two starts, but I expect Abbott to get back on track here. This season, the Virginia product and college World Series hero has been electric in the big leagues. Abbott has a 27.3% K% and an 11.5% SwStr% to start his big league career. He has six or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including two where he reached double-digit strikeouts.
The Giants are at the top of the charts regarding strikeouts against left-hand pitching. The Giants are in the top ten in baseball with a 24.3% K% against lefties. They also won a 93 wRC+ and a .307 wOBA. Not only do they swing and miss a ton, but they don't hit lefties well, either. This should allow Abbott to pitch deeper into this game and rack up the strikeouts.
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MLB HitToday'sp Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP Seiya Suzuki + Cody Bellinger to record a hit (-120 DraftKings SportsBook)
Over the last few weeks, I provided you with some hit parlays. Honestly, it's been a blast betting and has been very profitable. I will make this a constant theme in my articles for the rest of the season. I like giving you guys different looks on how to bet instead of writing up the everyday props like always. You can always take either of the two guys below for their total bases prop to get a better line.
Steven Matz will get the ball for the Cardinals against the Cubs. Matz has a .287 BAA on the season. Matz has allowed a .200 BAA against lefties this season and a .309 BAA against righties. We will be focusing primarily on right-handed bats here. I wouldn't mind mixing a left-handed bat in here because Matz won't pitch particularly deep.
Seiya Suzuki is the best right-handed bat in this lineup against left-hand pitching. He has a .305 AVG against the split this season. Suzuki has 17 hits over his last 13 games. Cody Bellinger is the lefty I was talking about earlier. He is hitting .346 against left-hand pitching this season and should get the split advantage when the Cardinals go to the bullpen. Bellinger has 26 hits over his last 15 games.
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