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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, May 1, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
The 2023 MLB season is now over a month old and we have a ton of action to look forward to throughout the remainder of the year! This article will focus on MLB player props throughout the season. We will look to focus on pitcher strikeout props first and foremost as those are often some of the juiciest props on the market. We will also look at MLB hitter props such as home runs, hits, and total bases.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 1, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Blake Snell OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+104, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's been a tough go for Blake Snell in the early going this season as he has been shelled for a 5.48 ERA in five starts. His control issues are back by way of a 16.5% walk rate on the season while his strikeout rate of 23.9% has dipped well below the 32% mark he posted just last season. However, tonight is a nice opportunity to get back on track.
First, given his 29.1% K% for his career, Snell should be due for some positive strikeout regression moving forward. Second, the Reds are in a three-way tie for 20th with a 24.5% strikeout rate on the season, while that rate holds to a 24.1% mark against left-handed pitching.
Snell should be able to generate at least seven strikeouts in this one tonight.
Tony Gonsolin UNDER 4.5 strikeouts (-116, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tony Gonsolin doesn't tend to rack up a ton of strikeouts to begin with but should be in tough to punch out at least five hitters in this one tonight.
In his first start of the season, Gonsolin pitched just 3 1/3 innings with one strikeout against the Pirates. He has missed a ton of time this spring after injuring his ankle in camp and the Dodgers will surely ease him back into action. He won't be long for this game, either.
The Phillies do rank 19th with a 24.2% K% but they could also give Gonsolin trouble as they also sit seventh with a .335 wOBA on the season. I don't see the right-hander getting over this total.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Daulton Varsho 2+ Total Bases (-125, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The over/under in a matchup between the Blue Jays and Red Sox is set at 10 runs. That tells you the books are expecting plenty of offense in this one and Daulton Varsho should be in the middle of that action.
Corey Kluber toes the rubber for the Red Sox and he has pitched to a 6.75 ERA/6.76 FIP along with a 5.03 SIERA. He's yielded a massive 2.63 HR/9 on the young season while his ground-ball rate is just 31.6%. Fenway Park is a dangerous venue to begin with and Kluber just doesn't have it to this point.
Varsho hasn't had the best start to his Blue Jays tenure as he owns a .194 average with just two homers in 27 games. However, his .246 BABIP is down from a .270 career mark. Obviously, he'll bring that average up and this is a nice opportunity for him to do just that in Boston against a struggling right-handed pitcher.
Matt Chapman 2+ Total Bases (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
We'll go right back to Fenway Park and target Kluber with another Blue Jays bat in the form of Matt Chapman.
Chapman has been white-hot at the plate this season as he's hitting .384 with five homers and a whopping 15 doubles in the early going. Regression is a certainty as he sports an unsustainable .485 BABIP but Chapman also ranks in the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. It would seem he's hitting the ball very hard so far this season.
Another item of note here is the right-handed-swinging Chapman can take aim at the Green Monster which sits just 310 feet from home plate down the left field line. A long ball fly does much more for a right-handed hitter than a left-handed hitter in this venue.
Add it up and Chapman should be able to collect at least two total bases in this one tonight.
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