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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/5/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Welcome in, RotoBallers! I hope everyone had a relaxing and safe 4th of July. I managed to avoid the urge to wait in line at Sheetz for 30 minutes of my day for a $12 discount on gasoline (maybe that was just a North Carolina thing? Apologies if so...), and in exchange I spent a ton of time watching day baseball and a little time watching grown men inhale casings of meat. Overall, a great day! Let's see if we can shift over to some (mostly) evening baseball on Wednesday and find some mid-week success in the MLB betting game.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BellRoto for all things MLB banter.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Yankees
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BAL (-125)
BAL: Dean Kremer | NYY: Randy Vasquez
We got a sneak peak of the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium on a warm, humid Tuesday afternoon, and there were runs a-plenty, including a few cheap homers to the short porch in right field. With the two pitchers we have taking the mound on Wednesday night, I don't see things changing a whole lot.
The New York offense is slowly picking up, having scored 25 runs in their last five games combined. They get to face a right-hander in Dean Kremer who has allowed at least two long balls in four of his last five outings. That's not just a blip... That's dangerously close to a trend. A 40% fly ball rate with a 35% hard contact rate this year suggests the round-trippers could continue to cause issues for Kremer, and I expect the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and Harrison Bader to take advantage on Wednesday.
Meanwhile right-handed rookie Randy Vasquez will make this third career start for the Yanks, and early on the returns are looking problematic. His xFIP is nearing 6.00, his high walk rate is already showing through from the minors to the majors, and there's some early regression coming for his left-on-base and HR/FB rates. The Orioles are as dangerous a lineup as any against right-handed pitchers, so I expect runs early from their side of the plate as well.
In the end, we have two pitchers in peculiar positions with offenses I trust to score in bunches. We do need to avoid the bullpens, as both of these teams have shown the ability to trot out multiple strikeout specialists in the late innings. The number is high, but for a good reason. Six runs is attainable in the first five frames in the Bronx, and I'm willing to put my hard-earned cash on it!
Pick: Orioles/Yankees 1st 5 Innings OVER 5.5 Runs (+100 : DraftKings Sportsbook)
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O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHI (-150)
CHI: Justin Steele | MIL: Adrian Houser
While the wild 7-6 finish on Tuesday and the idea of a hitter's park in Milwaukee may lead us to believe more runs will be scored in this NL Central tilt on Wednesday evening, here's why I love the first five UNDER between the Cubs and the Brewers tonight.
First off, Justin Steele has been lights out of late. He's a masterful ground ball specialist with great movement on his fastball and a nasty slider to get a strikeout when he needs it. The Brewers rank second-t0-last in the MLB in wOBA versus left-handed pitchers. That feels like a good start.
Meanwhile, I love the Cubs offense against contact-prone lefties, but right-handers have had a bit more success this season. That makes sense when you see that the top and bottom of their lineup is largely comprised of gap-to-gap righties. Another ground ball-focused arm like Adrian Houser should be able to keep many of these hitters at bay, as his 50% ground ball rate and 10% HR/FB rate are encouraging in a spot like this.
I don't love the status of the bullpens after an extra inning battle on Tuesday, so let's keep it at five innings and trust that both starters can get us there. I don't quite understand the line, as I would make this an Over/Under of four runs with the juice on the under. Let's cash this one!
Pick: Cubs/Brewers 1st 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 Runs (-105 : DraftKings Sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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