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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/30/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! We have a juicy 15-game MLB slate to cap off yet another summer weekend, and there's not a whole lot else going on in the sports world these days. Let's see if we can get hot with the baseball picks leading up to the trade deadline and NFL preseason.
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My name is Tommy Bell, and I'll be taking over the Free MLB Betting article for Sunday and Monday this week. You can find me on Twitter for all things MLB banter @BellRoto. Now, let’s jump into a few plays for July 30, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ White Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CLE -140
CLE: Aaron Civale | CHW: Michael Kopech
The Guardians have a chance to even up this four-game series in the finale at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday afternoon, and my money says they get it done. For starters, Cleveland should see an advantage from the pitching side of things, as the 28-year-old Aaron Civale has settled into a nice groove of late.
He's never going to light up the strikeout category, but Civale limits homers and walks, and he eats up innings (average 6.1 innings pitched per start over his last seven outings). The White Sox offense ranks 27th in the MLB in wOBA against RHPs, so there's a clear path to another quality start for the Guardians' starter this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the White Sox will throw Michael Kopech, who has fallen into a downward spiral of walks and homers galore of late. The 27-year-old has allowed at least one home run in each of his last five starts, walking 19 batters in that stretch and failing to reach six innings in all five. Kopech's strikeout upside has dwindled recently, too. While the Guardians are by no means a powerhouse offense this year, they've improved nicely since the All-Star Break, ranking 13th in wOBA in the second half of the season.
Lastly, I'll give a nice edge to the Guardians' bullpen as well. The White Sox continue to test out who they truly trust in the set-up and closer roles, while Cleveland can safely rely on two rested stud arms in Trevor Stephan and Emmanuel Clase. The line favors the Guardians here for a reason, but my money says it should be closer to -170. I'll gladly pay the -140 for a few different edges in this contest and hope Cleveland can split the series on the road this afternoon.
Pick: Guardians ML (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BOS (-125)
BOS: Brennan Bernardino | SF: Scott Alexander
I have less player-specific analysis here and more of a trendy feel for an Over in this game. First off, it will be a 1:05 pm first pitch in San Francisco, which always bodes much better for hitters than evening games. The weather tends to affect hitting less here, but it helps that it's humid with the wind blowing out as well. Then, we take a look at who's on the mound, and things get a bit more interesting.
The Red Sox will go with an opener before handing the ball over to Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has been solid, but I much prefer the Giants' bats against a right-handed pitcher. There's enough velocity here to equate to some long balls if some of these power bats in the San Fran lineup can finally get going.
Boston will face a plethora of bullpen arms on the other side. I much prefer them against right-handed pitchers as well. We should see a pretty neutral lineup from manager Alex Cora, knowing that some righties will be coming behind the southpaw, Scott Alexander.
Lastly, the back end of both bullpens have been used each of the last two nights in close, low-scoring games. That leaves the door open on both sides for some late-inning runs if we still need one or two down the stretch, which is always a nice security blanket when betting an Over like this.
All in all, this is not the most surefire play I've ever found with player matchups begging for a big wager. But all the trends I like to look for in an "Over" are present. The number certainly shows enough value to fire. Let's get some runs in Oracle Park this afternoon.
Pick: Over Eight Total Runs (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook
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