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The long wait is finally over! The last great college football season begins in earnest this year. Labor Day Weekend is always glorious for us college football fans. Five straight days of college football with some PLAYOFF games on the first weekend. What other sport offers that? Not even college football will after this season.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the first week's results. I didn't lose any points the first week. Anytime you break even, it's a success.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week (September 2-4, 2023)
East Carolina at (2) Michigan (-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is an embodiment of all that is wrong with college football. The number two team in the country (and my number one) isn't on television this weekend. You have to stream it. I can't DVR a stream! Yes, the big cable conglomerates are evil...blah blah blah. Would you rather have that or be nickel-and-dimed to death by streams?
All of the explosiveness on offense is gone from ECU's team. Can they reload? Even if they can, they're still getting blown out at the Big House. Give me Michigan.
Virginia vs. (12) Tennessee (-27.5) at Nashville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
While Tony Muskett is a great name for a quarterback, I'm not sure a transfer from Monmouth is the answer for the Hoos. Another long season starts here. Give me Tennessee.
Colorado at (17) TCU (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A lot of sharps are on Colorado here, but both teams had a lot of turnover. I'm still nervous about Chandler Morris. He didn't look good against a bad Colorado team in the opener last year. Is he better? Probably, but the Ralphies are as well. Give me Colorado. This feels high, but I'm still not going crazy with this one. There's at least a 50/50 chance that Colorado falls flat on the road against a ranked team in the opener.
The Deion Effect:
Most bet on college football game at @betmgm for Week 1?
Colorado-TCU.
Most bet on team?
Colorado +20.5
Most bet on team by money?
Colorado.
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) September 1, 2023
Arkansas State at (20) Oklahoma (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know what to expect from the Red Wolves, but I do know what to expect from the Oklahoma defense. This is too many.
Utah State at (25) Iowa (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cade McNamara will stabilize this offense, but he's still not going to make it powerful. He didn't with Michigan either and the teams are similarly built. If I think Iowa covers this, that means I'm counting on the defense to score at least one touchdown. Give me Utah State. The Aggies won't win this, but Iowa might not even score 25 points...
Ball State at Kentucky (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Layne Hatcher is experienced and Marquez Cooper is a great addition to the Lettermans. I'm excited to see Devin Leary in a Kentucky uniform, and apparently Vegas is as well. This is a lot of points, but I'll say the Cats cover at home.
Bowling Green at Liberty (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Former Indiana and Missouri quarterback Conner Bazelak is a big name for the Falcons. Liberty tries to reload with Duquesne transfer Billy Lucas, but this isn't the same team or the same coach that smoked BYU right before walking into Fayetteville and beating Arkansas last year. I kind of like Bowling Green outright here. Give me the Falcons.
Fresno State at Purdue (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is a tough one, but I trust Devin Mockobee more than anyone that Fresno collected through the portal. Give me Purdue.
Louisiana Tech at SMU (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Preston Stone keeps continuity after the departure of Tanner Mordecai. Miami transfer Jaylan Knighton provides an injection of speed into an already fast offense. Judging by what we saw from Tech last week, Smoke Harris will have a big game, but Tech still won't be able to hang around. Give me the Ponies.
Northern Illinois at Boston College (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I guess the question here is whether I trust Emmett Morehead. Not really. However, Central Florida transfer Ryan O'Keefe is just as good (if not better) than Zay Flowers. I'll take the Eagles. For what it's worth, I don't trust Rocky Lombardi either...
Akron at Temple (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As expected, this line is all over the place. Colorado State transfer Dante Wright gives E.J. Warner a reliable target. We saw Warner have some HUGE games down the stretch last season. He kind of looked like his dad running the Greatest Show on Turf. I like Akron, but they're not going into Philly and winning. Give me Temple.
(3) Ohio State (-30.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is falling and I'm not sure why. I guess the Buckeyes usually have problems with Indiana. The Buckeyes usually aren't this loaded, though. All Kyle McCord has to do is not turn the ball over. This is tough. Give me Indiana, but there's no way I'm touching this one. There's bound to be some growing pains for the Buckeyes.
Boise State at (10) Washington (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We've got a fun QB matchup on Saturday between Boise State and Washington.
Michael Penix was the more dangerous passer last year, but Taylen Green is a serious threat in the run game. pic.twitter.com/RwltrvcbrN
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) August 31, 2023
I was hoping that the line wouldn't be quite this high. Boise is a trendy upset pick and for the life of me, I can't figure out why. George Holani and Ashton Jeanty form a good backfield, but the Washington run defense borders on elite. Taylen Green had his moments last year, but I just don't see that being enough on the road. Give me the Huskies.
Rice at (11) Texas (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I just hope everyone has fun and Rice gets a check big enough to finance their sports for a year. Give me Texas.
Buffalo at (19) Wisconsin (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a bit high. I know that Wisconsin's offense is going to be significantly better, but they aren't just going to abandon the run. This defense is really good, though. I'll take the Badgers.
Massachusetts at Auburn (-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Auburn hasn't covered a line like this since Week 2 of 2021 against Alabama State. UMass just walked into Las Cruces and beat a team that went to -- and won -- a bowl game last year. This feels like too many. I'll take UMass, but I likely won't touch this one.
South Florida at Western Kentucky (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Austin Reed and Malachi Corley are back for the Hilltoppers. That's enough for me!
California (-6.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Mean Green defense was everything but last year and I don't know if the offense has enough firepower to outscore teams. I'm not a huge believer in Cal, but Jaydn Ott is a really good back. That's enough here. Give me the Bears.
Nevada at (6) USC (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
San Jose State has a good offense. That's why they hung with the Trojans. Nevada's is still a work in progress. I'll take USC here.
New Mexico at (23) Texas A&M (-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I hate lines like this. New Mexico is the kind of bad that no number of transfers can fix. However, this same A&M team plus De'Von Achane nearly lost to UMass at the end of last season. New Mexico won't win, but I'll say A&M gets bored and doesn't cover.
Army (-9.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
We get the half? Hell yes! Army by a lot. They ran for 440 yards on this team last year in West Point.
Washington State (-11.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cameron Ward gets two sneaky-good WR transfers in Kyle Williams (UNLV) and Josh Kelly (Fresno State). This Washington State offense is going to be better than you remember. Give me Wazzu. This game might be for MWC supremacy (even if they do rebrand as the Pac 12).
Texas State at Baylor (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bobcats have nine new starters on offense that transferred in, headlined by North Carolina State quarterback TJ Finley. Is it enough? I don't know, but it's enough to make me leave this one alone. I'll take Texas State, but I'm not betting it.
UTSA (-1.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This opened with Houston a slight favorite, but the secret is out about UTSA. This is a very good team. Frank Harris is efficient, cool under pressure, and a sneaky-good runner. Houston is breaking in almost an entirely new offense. I'm still on UTSA here.
The Most Important Player in Texas College Football is @UTSAFTBL QB Frank Harrishttps://t.co/Hn4XQl66Yf@thefrankharris | @UTSAFTBL | @UTSAAthletics | @CoachTraylor | 🤙 @CravenMike | #BirdsUp
— Dave Campbell's Texas Football — TexasFootball.com (@dctf) September 1, 2023
Middle Tennessee State at (4) Alabama (-39.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Alabama is likely going to have open auditions for the QB job during the game. Bama wins big, but more like 42-7 than 56-7. Give me MTSU.
West Virginia at (7) Penn State (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Mountaineers finished last in the Big 12 (14). This is too low. I Like CJ Donaldson, but he's not going to be able to run on this defense. Penn State should cover this with relative ease.
(21) North Carolina (-2.5) vs. South Carolina at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The wrong Carolina is favored. Gamecocks win outright.
Toledo at Illinois (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A MAC team has beaten a Big Ten (14) team every year for the past 16 years, excluding 2020 when teams played only in their own conference. This has as good a chance as any to be the MAC's upset. I think this stays close. Like one-score close. Give me Toledo.
Texas Tech (-14.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tech, from a notoriously flat and barren part of Texas, visits the highest stadium in the FBS for a night game. This has trouble written all over it. I'm a fan of Tech's prospects for this year, but this is a tough ask. I really don't like that half. I'll take Tech, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
South Alabama at (24) Tulane (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be a tough game. If this were over a touchdown, I would take the USA. Seven seems about right, though. Give me Tulane at home.
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
COLLEGE FOOTBALL 🏈#GamblingX #FadeThePolls
OLD DOMINION @ VIRGINIA TECH
— 〽️ikeroccovioli (@mikeroccovioli) August 31, 2023
The Monarchs have beaten Virginia Tech twice since 2018, once in Blacksburg. This is too high. I'll take ODU. The Hokies haven't beaten Old Dominion since 2017. I think they get the win here, but it's closer than they would like.
Sam Houston at BYU (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know a lot about Sam Houston, but I do know a lot about Kedon Slovis. He's good at turnovers. Give me the Bearkats. I don't expect a win, but I think this stays within two touchdowns.
Coastal Carolina at UCLA (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is at least a half-point too high. I trust Grayson McCall on the road against a team whose fans don't show up. Say nothing of the fact that UCLA will have a new starting quarterback for the first time in seven years.
Northwestern at Rutgers (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels low. It's going to take Northwestern a while to recover from the last 12 months. Give me Rutgers.
(18) Oregon State (-16.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Spartans are already a game deep into this season and they're at home. This feels like too many. Give me the Spartans. They won't win, but I think they stay within two touchdowns.
(5) LSU (-2.5) vs. (8) Florida State at Orlando
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know that big playoff expansion that most of you are in favor of? It makes games like this mean nothing. Now, if Florida State loses this game, they are likely out of the playoffs. This is a playoff game in Week 1! How unique is that? How special is it to have those games interspersed throughout the season? If this game were to happen next year, few would care. Both the winner and the loser are still going to the expanded playoff. At least this one means something.
As for the game itself, I trust Jordan Travis a whole lot more than Jayden Daniels. Give me FSU outright.
(9) Clemson (-12.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is too many, especially since I wouldn't be shocked if Duke won this outright. Give me Duke.
There are 45 FBS vs. FBS games in this glorious weekend. I went heaviest in the middle with 16 two-point bets and 14 three-pointers. I only have seven minimum bets, which scares me a bit. I'm a little more confident in Week 1 than I usually am with five four-pointers and three max bets. Good luck out there!
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