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Expert Week 9 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 9.
Thursday Night Football heads to Miami, Florida, this week for an AFC clash between the 2-5 Baltimore Ravens and 2-6 Miami Dolphins. Lamar Jackson makes his highly anticipated return after missing three games with a hamstring injury. And the Dolphins are coming off their most complete win of the season in Week 8 at the Atlanta Falcons, winning 34-10.
The Ravens still find themselves right in the thick of it to win the AFC North after a much-needed win last week against the Bears, along with the Steelers dropping two games in a row. Baltimore, at a 2-5 record, is the betting favorite to win the division at the moment. On the flip side, plenty of people were ready to write off the Dolphins after a miserable 31-6 loss in Week 7 at Cleveland, but head coach Mike McDaniel had his team ready to go against Atlanta and should be able to exploit what has still been a bad Ravens defense this year.
Chills, thrills, and Thursday night lights 🕸️ #TNFonPrime pic.twitter.com/UJ3WWjnOSF
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Can the Ravens get a road win in Jackson's return, or will the Dolphins pull off the upset? Let's get to the picks!
Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-430 ML) at Miami Dolphins (+340 ML)
Over/Under (50.5)
Tua Tagovailoa has had his struggles this season, but he had his cleanest game of the season in Week 8 against an Atlanta defense that has performed well. He played well in their Week 2 loss against New England, with his lone 300-yard passing day of the season, but had a costly interception at the end of the game in a 33-27 loss.
The 27-year-old completed 20 of 26 pass attempts for 205 yards and four touchdowns, finishing with a 10.96 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). That's a big bounce-back after somehow posting a -1.53 AY/A in brutal weather conditions in Cleveland the week prior, the worst of his career.
The Dolphins have played on Thursday Night Football four times in the Mike McDaniel era (since 2022). They are 0-4 straight up and 1-4 against the spread, with that one cover coming in Week 3 against Buffalo this season. However, Thursday nights have been favorable for underdogs so far in 2025, winning three out of eight matchups.
The Ravens have no game designations on their injury report. All 53 players were estimated to be full-go Wednesday.
The Dolphins will likely be without a starting TE and a starting safety. Bradley Chubb is expected to play, however. pic.twitter.com/K6QrzQf42W
— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) October 29, 2025
2025 Betting Trends:
- Against the Spread: BAL 2-5, MIA 4-4
- As Home Team ATS: MIA 2-1
- As Away Team ATS: BAL 0-2
- Over Game Total: BAL 6-1, MIA 6-1-1
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
Jackson and the Ravens offense will face a familiar face on the opposite sideline, in former Ravens defensive line and assistant head coach Anthony Weaver, who is now the Dolphins' defensive coordinator. All the attention will be rightfully focused on Jackson's return, but his presence could signal a big night for RB Derrick Henry.
The Dolphins' defense has struggled to stop the run this season, which is a well-known story by now. Opposing teams have attacked them by running zone run concepts 57.1% of the time, the highest in the league, per MatchQuarters.
Henry thrives on zone run concepts, particularly runs designed to get him out on the edge and into open space. The 31-year-old beast has the second-most rushing yards (297) and the fourth-highest success rate (54.4%) in the league on outside zone runs (minimum 25 carries), per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
The legend of Derrick Henry grows pic.twitter.com/PktRuEqInm
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 26, 2025
On the Dolphins' side, the offense has run through De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle, with second-year wideout Malik Washington getting more involved in recent games. Those three players have accounted for 636 of the 898 total yards (70.8%) for the Dolphins over the last three weeks.
The key for Baltimore will be getting pressure on Tagovailoa and getting him off his spot, an area where he has consistently struggled in his career and more recently as he's gotten less mobile. But he's also made more mistakes without pressure this season, leading the league with seven interceptions in those situations after throwing only four last season.
When kept clean, he's typically performed very well and has never thrown more than five interceptions in a season with no pressure, except for his 2023 season, when he threw a league-high of 11. The Ravens defense ranks 28th in pressure rate (28%) this season, which could play in their favor if they're able to cloud the picture for him in the secondary.
I'm expecting points to be scored in this game with two mediocre defenses and offenses that have proven capable of scoring a ton of points. I'm reluctant to take the Ravens with the points in Jackson's first game back with the Dolphins, showing signs of fight last week in Atlanta. But I do expect Baltimore to win. It could be a sell-high spot for Miami, but we'll take the points.
The Picks: Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-105), Over 50.5 (-110)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Derrick Henry Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
We’ll keep it simple and take King Henry to go over his rushing yards prop, continuing the trend of opposing running backs running wild against Miami’s defense. They've allowed an average of 145 rushing yards per game, which is the fourth highest in the league. Lamar Jackson is back to open up the rushing lanes, and we saw what he did on Sunday Night Football to open the season against a bad AFC East team's run defense, with 169 yards and two touchdowns.
Malik Washington 5+ Receptions (+172)
Washington has seen at least five targets in each of his last four games and in six out of eight games this season. The 24-year-old gets nearly all of his work near the line of scrimmage with the third-lowest aDOT (4.32) in the league among wide receivers. It's a heavy dose of screens and quick hitters to get the ball in his hands in a diet Tyreek Hill kind of role. He led the team with five receptions in their Week 7 loss at Cleveland in a monsoon and has been a consistent piece of their offense over the last few weeks.
Jaylen Waddle Over 23.5 Longest Reception (-114)
Waddle is one of the most electric players in the league. His touchdown last week in Atlanta, when he turned on the jets and blew past all the defensive backs for a 43-yard touchdown, was one of the highlight plays of the week. He's gone over this line in five of eight games this season, including four of the last five.
Jaylen Waddle is a BLUR. 43-yard TD!
MIAvsATL on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/k6ggqc9Qu1
— NFL (@NFL) October 26, 2025
The 26-year-old caught a 46-yard touchdown in their first full game without Hill in Week 5, a spectacular over-the-shoulder 45-yard catch in Week 6, and then the 43-yard catch and run touchdown in Week 8. The only game in the last four that didn't have a big explosive catch was the monsoon game in Cleveland, where there were only three completions of 20 yards or more for both teams.
Thursday Night Football Anytime Touchdown Bets
Rashod Bateman Anytime Touchdown (+320)
Bateman shows out when the lights are brightest and when he has his star quarterback back in the lineup. Bateman has scored two touchdowns in five career games on Thursday Night Football, including once last year around the same point of the season in Week 10. He's scored in one of three career games against Miami and averages 80.7 receiving yards per game against them, the most of any opponent. It came back in Week 2 of the 2022 season, where he simply won quickly on a slant route and housed it for a 75-yard touchdown.
Big play @Ravens. Rashod Bateman goes 75 yards! @R_bateman2
📺: #MIAvsBAL on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/LqzAxQaA7Q pic.twitter.com/qqs437Bgo8— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2022
More Picks and Analysis
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