Old Faces, New Places: Free Agent Fallers

Antonio Losada identifies four NFL free agents on new teams in 2021 that could be fantasy football fallers and overvalued draft targets based on ADP.

There is no way to describe the average NFL front office. Each franchise has its own set of rules, follows different parameters when evaluating players, and builds its roster in a very particular way. Even with a clear mindset, an organization's principles might be tweaked in order to accommodate players into the salary cap, for example, which makes decisions even harder to take and for us to understand in some cases.

No matter what, every offseason we see the same musical chairs game. As the title of this column says, old and known faces always move to new places, whether because they find no love in their last team anymore, or because they're truly coveted by every other team around the league and paid big bucks to go play for other franchises. This doesn't mean those changes are always good or bad, as each move is a case to study on its own with multiple potential ramifications.

For fantasy football purposes, it is easy to try and predict whether those moves fall on the "positive" or "negative" side of things. That is what I'll be writing about next, highlighting four players that had great seasons in 2020 but after changing teams during the past few months are poised to regress and worsen their fantasy football production in their new surroundings.

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Fantasy Points Projections

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

First things first. I have to clarify that I believe in James Conner as a Cardinal in that I don't see where all of the hype is with Chase Edmonds and his high near-60 ADP these days. While that's not a top-tier level price, it's still too rich for my blood when Conner joined Arizona's backfield as a free agent this past offseason. That doesn't mean Conner will mimic Kenyan Drake's numbers from 2020 in terms of both opportunities and production. Sorry to let you down, but that's the reality and this is not a bellcow-prone backfield as that of Pittsburgh in years past.

Arizona, featuring a rushing QB in Kyler Murray, might take a bit from Conner's upside compared to the one allowed by his role in Pitt. On top of that, and while Edmonds is not your definition of RB1-darling, he should still put on some bulky usage in 2021. The Cards also loaded on offense (for better or worse), adding WR A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore to already-established DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. There will be a lot of mouths to feed is what I mean.

James Conner's production has gone down yearly, from 21.5 FPPG in 2018 to 21.5 (2019) and finally 12.7 last season. He's gone from RB6 to RB35 to RB27. That's not even RB2/RB3 material if things don't get better, and PFF is definitely not projecting that to happen. PFF has Conner at 112+ PPR for the season with a rather low 6.6 FPPG, which would be almost half of his 2020 mark. Fantasy GMs are spending a top-10 round pick in Conner these days, which is way too high given the doubts about his role going forward. Again, I believe in Conner--and Edmonds--but not at the spots they are getting off draft boards right now.

RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders

Speaking of Cardinals, what about the man opening his slot for Conner to slide in? Kenyan Drake has been quite a story during the past two years, first because of his mid-season trade from Miami to Arizona, then because of his "disappointing" season in the desert, and now because of his free-agent move from there to Las Vegas.

When the Cards traded for Drake in 2019, they got the best possible version of the tailback, who closed the year with performances of 39.6, 33.4, and 17.3 PPR for Arizona. Fantasy GMs started dreaming about a 2020 season of such production only to find Drake averaging 12.9 FPPG and finishing RB16 after getting drafted as the RB9 in September. Quite the letdown. Drake wasn't bad, mind you, but he wasn't close to the unsustainable late-2019 performer he looked like back then, wildly underproducing and banking on huge volume to put up numbers.

Too bad for Drake (although seemingly not in his mind) he will now be back at sharing duties with Josh Jacobs in Las Vegas. Jacobs projects 246 carries compared to Drake's 127, and Drake only edges him in targets (61 to 39). All things considered, Jacobs is PFF's RB17 for 2021 while Drake would fall to RB28, not even making the RB2 cut in a 12-team league. At least the ADP is not crazy at around 115 entering June. That's the only thing saving Drake from being an absolute fantasy team-killer (no, you should not draft him high).

TE Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots

Can't blame New England. In a surprising set of moves this offseason, the Pats bolstered their offense, adding more warm bodies to it (mostly via FA) than they ever had before. In came WR Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson, and most important of all, TE Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Focusing on the latter two: why? Is this a Gronk-Hernandez re-do? Does Bill Belichick think these two are capable of the early-2010s exploits of that tandem? Let me doubt it.

That being said, it can happen. If it will or not, only time will tell. But one thing is for real: this is no bueno for your fantasy team and you should absolutely avoid drafting any of these two with an early pick. Not the worst of late-round options, of course, but stay away from a big-play move early in your drafts. Henry finished 2020 as the TE12 and Smith followed him as the TE16 of the season. None of them averaged more than 10.5 FPPG on the year, with Henry also missing the last two games of the year entirely.

Now, the main problem with these two is obvious and comes in the mythological shape of a Tight-End-By-Committee approach by NE. Both Henry and Jonnu benefited from two of the top-11 target-situations (TEs with min. 600 snaps), averaging a target every 5.0 and 4.2 routes run each. Those usage marks will rise no matter what, as they will now be part of a bolstered offense and worst of all sharing the field on two-TE plays. Isolated, any of those two look great. Put together on the same field, not so much.

The ADPs are virtually the same with Jonnu's at 113 and Henry's at 111 overall (TE16 and TE15) but they could very well fall from the TE1 realm if they eat from each other's chances, which is more than predictable to happen in the Pats offense and playing (at least for a few games to start the year) under QB Cam Newton.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

You don't need me to remind you who missed most of the 2020 season while playing (or rather sitting) for the Saints, do you? With Michael Thomas out through almost every game of the first half of the season, Sanders took advantage and had two of his WR2+ games of the year. The other one also came with Thomas out in the last game of the regular season. No wonder all three of those games came with a huge passing volume attached to them as Sanders never topped six targets in any other game other than those.

Entering 2021, Sanders will be part of the Bills offense after signing with Buffalo a few weeks ago. That surely doesn't bode well for the fantasy GMs banking on him--if there's anyone still out there. With his prime clearly in the rearview mirror, it's been two years finishing as a WR30+ for Sanders, with 2018 also a borderline WR2-season as he finished WR23 overall.

The usage of Sanders in Buffalo will suffer quite a hit compared to that he experienced last year in New Orleans. Both Stefon Diggs (tough as a rock, by the way) and Cole Beasley were targeted every 3.5 and 4.2 routes run respectively, sandwiching Sanders' 4.0 mark. It's going to be impossible for Sanders to keep up that usage. The only positive in Sanders' outlook is the fact that he goes from a totally washed-up QB to a top-notch thrower in Josh Allen. Even then, though, the competition will be too much for Sanders to become more than a weekly WR3/FLEX, which is pretty much what the ADP of 264 and the projection of a WR77 finish (as PFF has him) tell about him.

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