August 28, 2017

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler analyzes average draft position with a focus on finding some sleepers at the running back position for 2017 fantasy football drafts.

Every fantasy owner and their grandmother has an opinion on who's a "sleeper." It's basically become more of a buzzword than an actual guideline at this point. Part of the problem with that is that everyone uses a different definition of what a "sleeper" even is. Is it someone you're willing to reach for? Someone you take with your last pick? Or just someone you like more than everyone else? So before we jump right into a list of running back sleepers, let's lock ourselves into one hard and fast definition.

A sleeper should be defined as a player you expect to outperform their average draft position. It sounds easy, but a lot of people underestimate what that actually means. Reaching on a player sort of negates the whole purpose; you've inflated his ADP to where you think he should be going. The goal is to take advantage of a draft trend, not buck it.

With that in mind, we're going to operate under the rule that a sleeper is someone with greater value than the draft suggests. And below are five running backs that fit the bill.

Five RB Sleepers Based On ADP

Rob Kelley - Washington Redskins (ADP: 89.9)

Rob Kelley going in what basically amounts to the ninth round is pretty absurd to me. He's a starting running back on a great offense who has already shown he can produce. The reason he's being looked over is two-fold. First, folks look at his year-long stat line and dismiss him as being unproductive, overlooking the fact that he wasn't the starter for the first half of the year. Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, Kelley totaled 601 yards and six touchdowns. That's more yards than Devonta Freeman and more touchdowns than Jordan Howard over that span. Extend that line over the course of a full season and you're looking at roughly 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns. That's borderline RB1 value in today's NFL. Obviously the TDs are much harder to replicate, but the overall production is there if you think long-term.

The other, more common knock on Kelley is the presence of rookie Samaje Perine. There's a tendency to romanticize rookie running backs as "threats to steal the starting gig," a concept that gets over stated every year. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it's warranted (see: Jordan Howard) sometimes it isn't (see: Derrick Henry.) The truth is, we don't really know. We've already heard that Perine is behind in camp, pretty much assuring that Kelley will have a long leash to start the year. Expect him to maintain a hold on the position, returning great value in non-PPR. Chris Thompson is the pass-catching back in Washington, hence that caveat.

Matt Forte - New York Jets (ADP: 115.4)

The Matt Forte versus Bilal Powell situation is somewhat similar to Rob Kelley/Samaje Perine. Folks are anointing Powell as the new starter without considering the most likely scenario. Forte remains the incumbent veteran who gets the first shot, and even at 31, he still has enough left in the tank to produce. The days of him as an RB1 are well behind us, but Forte is as tough as they come. The Jets are in no position to air it out this year, paving the way for a basic ground-and-pound attack with Forte at the helm. Last year's 813 yards and seven touchdowns weren't spectacular yet that still netted an RB2 finish in 12-team leagues. Granted, it was at the back end at RB21, but hey, RB2 is RB2.

Forte has limited upside in an offense that won't score a lot, but his ADP is the key. You're getting a low-end RB2/flex play at a great price. He's currently going as RB43. Powell gets the edge in PPR, although he's going way too early in most drafts. Forte is the back you'll want to own in New York based on his value to production ratio.

Frank Gore - Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 77.2)

Our second old school veteran is running back Frank Gore of the Indianapolis Colts. I've been a fan of Gore for years, taking advantage of his refusal to die as a fantasy asset. Just like Matt Forte, Gore's upside isn't great, and he's not exactly a flashy pick in any format. Again, the ADP is the kicker. Snagging another one of those medium-floor RB2/flexes can make all the difference in a draft. "He's not an RB2" you say? Allow me to retort.

Frank Gore was RB12 in PPR last year. I'll repeat that, because it bears repeating. Frank Gore, at age 33, on a Colts team with a terrible offensive line, with 1,025 rushing yards and four touchdowns, was technically an RB1 in a 12-team league. The counter to that is usually along the lines of something like "I don't want a player who averages 13.5 fantasy points a game." Like it or not, that's the going rate of a high-end RB2 these days. It's just simple math. You might want a player with a higher point average, but actually getting one is a different story.

I'm not saying Gore is going to finish as RB12 again, as he does have a limited ceiling. It's just hard to argue against consistent production. At some point you have to accept the math. People keep counting Gore out, yet he keeps returning great fantasy value year after year. He's going to end up as one of those rare running backs who is flat out good until he retires. I understand wanting upside, but you need a few guys you can depend on as well. Taking Frank Gore in the mid-to-late rounds will give you a player you can throw into your lineup when your upside guys fizzle out. Better yet, there's a good chance you'll be able to start him every week without having to worry.

Rex Burkhead - New England Patriots (ADP: 155.3)

Time to dig a little deeper. The New England Patriots are frustratingly notorious for rotating running backs until fantasy owners throw up. Sometimes that can be a blessing, most times it's a curse. LeGarrette Blount, for example, had his flaws masked by basically being a goal-line rusher who hoarded touchdowns. You knew what you were getting and you accepted it. Dion Lewis, on the other hand, was completely unreliable even while healthy due to unpredictable usage. Such is life as a running back in New England.

The difference now is that the 2017 Patriots have a four-man rotation we haven't seen on the field yet. Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee are the new boys in town. Burkhead's numbers in Cincinnati aren't relevant here so it's best to shift focus to situation. Burkhead is a prototypical pass-catching back who the Pats likely view as an eventual successor to James White. They're actually almost the exact same size, so the comparison runs deep. The range of outcomes are very wide here as Burkhead has a ton of upside within this offense and legitimate downside. Still, his ADP is such that he's worth a late-round bench stash to see how it plays out. He's the first running back on our list who is worth a dart throw based purely on upside in PPR formats.

Thomas Rawls - Oakland Raiders (ADP: 117.8)

With all the attention on Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls is being overlooked as a late-round flier. The situation in Seattle is murky at best. There are three running backs of note, all of which can eat into each other's workload. To make matters worse, each one seems to have some sort of health issue. All that said, Rawls could end up returning great value if Lacy doesn't bounce back.

Rawls has been given the first shot as the team's starting running back, a tidbit that turned some heads. Yet once upon a time, Rawls was once a legit contender to be the lead dog anyway. We've established this is all about trying to find guys who outperform their ADP and Rawls has that potential. Even if we were to assume that he's not going to break out into a superstar, there is a very easy path for him to be a starting running back in the NFL. That is something that will always have value in fantasy. That tends to get overblown from time to time, but it's still ultimately true. You want potential starting RBs on your bench and that's exactly what Rawls is. Sometimes that's all it takes to be a sleeper.

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