Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – Buy/Sell Trade Targets for Week 8

October 28, 2022

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 8 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

We're officially about halfway through the fantasy football regular season and with seven games in the books, teams and players are pretty much who they are. We shouldn't be expecting any miracles from here on out, but that doesn't mean things can't change. It just means we need to be realistic in regard to our expectations.

If you're expecting Cole Kmet to live up to his off-season hype, you're going to be very disappointed. If you're expecting Darren Waller to be a little bit better than he's better, well... then you just might be in luck. At this point of the season, we're no longer guessing what might happen like we were in the offseason. No, now we know. We have the beauty of hindsight.

That newfound knowledge can help us crush our midseason trades. With the fantasy football regular season almost halfway done, most leagues have their trade deadline coming up in the next few weeks, so this week we'll be looking at a few tight ends you should be looking to buy and sell. Let's get started.

Tight Ends to Buy

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

Dalton Schultz has been a pretty big disappointment this season. He's played in five games and has three contests with fewer than 1 point. That's certainly not the kind of production fantasy managers were expecting after his big 2021 season. However, that shouldn't stop fantasy managers from making an offer for Schultz if the fantasy manager rostering him is fed up with his lack of production.

In two games with Dak Prescott under center, Schultz has 12 total targets. In three games with Cooper Rush, he had just 8 targets. It should be noted that Schultz was dealing with a knee injury during the three games with Rush. With Prescott throwing the ball, Schultz has 12 receptions and 111 yards.

With both Prescott and Schultz healthy, fantasy managers should be buying the fifth-year tight end. Michael Gallup has struggled in his return and hasn't given the Cowboys' offense the kind of boost many expected. That has left the door open for Schultz to become Prescott's No. 2 target, as he continues to get healthier.

Schultz has averaged 6 receptions per game with Dak, which would rank second among all tight ends this season. His 55 yards with Dak would be the fifth-highest. As Prescott gets more acclimated to being back and Schultz gets healthier, don't be surprised if he's a top-five tight end the rest of the way.

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

Despite being a rookie, fantasy managers should be buying Greg Dulcich. In the two games that he's been active, Dulcich has averaged 6 targets per game and has averaged a 17.1% target share. Since being activated off of IR, Dulcich is tied for second in targets with Courtland Sutton for the Broncos. Every part of his first two games should give fantasy managers plenty of optimism.

Week 7 TE Fantasy Usage

1 Gerald Everett (15.8 exp half PPR)
2 George Kittle (14.8)
3 Mike Gesicki (12.3)
4 Greg Dulcich (10.5)
5 Pat Freiermuth (10.3)
6 Travis Kelce (10.1)
7 Hayden Hurst (9.8)
8 Evan Engram (9.5)
9 Juwan Johnson (9.4)
10 David Njoku (9.9)
-
12 Kyle Pitts (8.0)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 24, 2022

It's not just the amount of targets he's getting, however, it's the kind of targets he's getting. In two games, he's averaged 55 air yards per game. This is the sixth-highest among tight ends this season. This is exactly what fantasy managers should be looking for. While most tight ends are almost used exclusively near the line of scrimmage, Dulcich is being used down the field, which gives him more upside for down-the-field opportunities.

Among tight ends with at least 10 targets, Dulcich ranks 8th with an average depth of target of 9.2 yards. Under those same parameters, the rookie tight end is averaging the seventh most routes run per game. Dulcich has unquestionably been the No. 1 receiving tight end, running a route on 70.7% of Denver's dropbacks.

Now consider that he's done all of that in his first two games of his rookie season after being on the IR and having to play with the team's backup quarterback. Dulcich should be someone you're looking to buy. That doesn't necessarily mean you have to go trade for him, either. There's a good chance he's on your waivers and if so, unless you're rostering Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, you should be adding him.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

Darren Waller has been a fairly big disappointment so far this season. He's struggled with a hamstring injury of late and sat out most of the team's offseason due to a "hamstring" injury. His early season hamstring injury seemed to be magically healed by a new contract. It's funny how some extra money can do that, but to be fair, Waller has absolutely earned that new contract. However, with a new head coach and a new offensive system being put in place, the missed time seems to have negatively affected him.

Still, if you're looking for an answer at tight end and the fantasy manager rostering Waller has grown tired of his early-season mediocrity, make an offer and see if you can get lucky because his utilization metrics look strong. In four games this season, Waller has averaged 6.2 targets per game and it's reasonable to expect that number to grow a bit as Waller continues to get healthier and more accumulated with the new offense. That's a pace of 105 targets.

Despite the slow start, he's on pace for 68 receptions and 745 across 17-games. That's certainly not the kind of production fantasy managers thought they were getting when they drafted him, but his value might very well be lower than it should be. Despite some of his numbers being lower than what fantasy managers have grown accustomed to with Waller, the one part that has been a lot better has been his red zone utilization.

He's currently averaging 1 end zone target per game, which is just shy of Mark Andrews and tied with Travis Kelce. He has 7 red zone targets, which is tied for sixth among tight ends. Consider, however, he's missed Weeks 5 and 7, along with the team having their bye in Week 7. In terms of red zone targets per game, Andrews is averaging 1.86 targets per game, while Waller is at 1.75. That's not the only positive about his usage.

He's averaging 68 air yards per game, which is second to only Mark Andrews. His average depth of target is right in the sweet spot, 10.9 yards. That's deep enough for the upside and shallow enough to not have a lot of volatility week to week. Based on Waller's utilization, fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if he finishes as a top-5 tight end the rest of the way. It's unlikely his manager who rosters him values him that highly.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert has been mostly what fantasy managers expected when they drafted him. He's currently TE8 in half-PPR scoring and averaging 9.1 points per game. That's good, but he can do better.

One of the things that is currently holding him back is the excellent play of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. However, that hasn't stopped Goedert from racking a very impressive target share over the past month.

TEs with the highest target shares over the last month

Mark Andrews - 27.2%
Dallas Goedert - 25.3%
Travis Kelce - 24.8%
Zach Ertz- 22.4%
T.J. Hockenson - 21.9%
Tyler Higbee - 21.7%
George Kittle - 20.4%
David Njoku - 19.4%
Evan Engram - 18.2%
Hunter Henry - 18.0%

— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 25, 2022

Even though Goedert is only averaging 5.8 targets per game, which is just 13th among tight ends, it's still a pace of just under 100 targets over 17-games. What should have fantasy managers excited is how efficient he's been on those targets. Despite being 13th in targets, he is fourth in yards per game at 59.5, which is a pace of 1,012 yards. He's doing this by averaging an absolutely ridiculous 10.9 yards after the catch per reception.

The argument behind buying Goedert is wanting to buy an extremely talented player who happens to play on one of the best offenses in the NFL. While Goedert may be the No. 3 target in Philadelphia, this offense is extremely consolidated. If Goedert's fantasy manager is disappointed with his showing thus far, Goedert has the talent and potential to outplay his current tight standing.

Tight Ends to Sell

Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints 

I understand all the reasons to love Taysom Hill at tight end, but if someone wants to buy him off my roster as a top-five tight end for the rest of the season... I'm selling 100/100. He's simply not playing enough snaps and not touching the ball enough to think this level of production continues.

Through six games, Hill is averaging just fewer than 15 snaps per game. Andrews is at 56 snaps per game and Kelce is at 53. Those are the two tight ends above him in scoring. The two beneath him, Zach Ertz and TJ Hockenson, are averaging 63 and 57 snaps respectively. Hill is under 15. Think about that. That's insane. So with that information ask yourself, what is most likely to happen? Can Hill really continue averaging 12.1 half-PPR PPG with just 15 snaps per game?

He has just one carry inside the 5-yard line and just 3 carries inside the 10-yard line. Despite that, he has 5 rushing touchdowns, and Alvin Kamara, the Saints' All-Pro running back? He has zero. So what is most likely to happen? Is he going to continue to score 5 rushing touchdowns on just three carries inside the 10-yard line? Is Alvin Kamara going to continue to not score any rushing touchdowns? He's not going to continue to score on 17.2% of his carries.

Every single metric of Hill's screams regression. We've already touched on his scoring efficiency likely coming down on the ground, but what about his receiving? Well yeah, that's going to come down too. He has just 2 targets and has 1 touchdown. He's not going to continue scoring on 50% of his targets.

What about his passing stats? He has 1 touchdown on 7 attempts. Is he going to continue to throw a touchdown on 14.2% of his pass attempts? No, he is not. There's really nothing about Hill's first six games that is sustainable. If someone thinks Hill will be a top-five tight end the rest of the season and is willing to pay that price, I'm selling.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

The Packers' offense has struggled mightily in 2022, but it was just two games ago that Robert Tonyan had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 90 yards. Allen Lazard is currently wearing a sling and is not expected to play this weekend. Randall Cobb is on IR. Christian Watson still isn't back from his hamstring injury. The receiving group is decimated by injuries. If you're able to sell that increased opportunity with his excellent game in Week 6, I'd highly recommend it. And look, I understand selling Tonyan isn't going to bring back a massive reward, but having him as a sell doesn't mean you actually have to sell. It just means don't get tied to him. He's nothing more than a streaming TE2.

Tonyan is averaging just 5 targets per game and 35 receiving yards. His Week 6 explosion was his only game with double-digit points. He has just two games with 5 or more receptions and just one game with more than 40 yards. If Tonyan was going to be a "thing" again in fantasy football, he'd have to do that with touchdowns.

However, through seven weeks, he has just 5 red zone targets and just 2 end zone targets. If you're able to sell Tonyan on the promise of vacated targets for someone like Hayden Hurst, that's a move I'd recommend. I would also rather have Evan Engram over Tonyan the rest of the way if he's still on waivers.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

T.J. Hockenson has 57% of his total half-PPR points on the season in one game. In that game, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift were both inactive. Just how much is that one game affecting Hockenson's seasonal stat line?

If we eliminate Week 4, Hockenson is averaging 5.2 targets per game, which ranks 16th among tight ends. If we look at the full season, Week 4 included, he's averaging 6.5 targets per game, which is the seventh-most. Without Week 4, he's 23rd among tight ends with just 2.8 receptions per game. Full season, he's 16th with 3.7 receptions. In terms of receiving yards, without Week 4, 32nd in receiving yards per game with just 25 yards. That's barely higher than Jonnu Smith. It's fewer than Will Dissly and Noah Fant. If we include Week 4, he's seventh among tight ends with 50.7 yards per game. Some of you may be thinking that this is cheating to take away a player's best game, but is it repeatable? Was it an outlier?

If it's an outlier, we shouldn't be judging said player with that outlier game included. Do you think that Week 4 is something that could happen again if Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift are active? If the answer is no, well, that's the point. While Hockenson is currently the TE5 in half-PPR, Hockenson should be viewed as a backend TE1.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki is currently the TE13 and has scored 38.5% of his points off of touchdowns. That wouldn't be the end of the world because we are talking about tight ends after all. Touchdowns are kind of the name of the game after the top five. However, based on his utilization, is it likely that he'll continue scoring touchdowns as he has?

He has three touchdowns on just 26 targets. He scored two touchdowns last year on 112 targets, so we're currently seeing two different extremes. Last year, he had a TD rate of 1.8%, and this year, his TD rate is 11.5%. Realistically, he's not going to continue scoring as many touchdowns as he has. Despite being 13th in half-PPR points scored, he's just 26th in targets per game.

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