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Throughout the NFL's offseason, many players see their fantasy football values fluctuate based on their movement and personnel decisions by their respective teams. Throughout this series, we have identified 12 players who have seen their fantasy football value increase over the free-agency period. The final big fantasy football value movement will come after the NFL Draft.
You can find the two previous editions of this series here:
- Fantasy Football Winners Post-Free Agency - Part I
- Fantasy Football Winners Post-Free Agency - Part II
After focusing more on receivers in our first two editions, this third and final entry will feature five different running backs who have seen their fantasy football increase since the start of free agency. Receivers are becoming increasingly popular in fantasy football, but these five running backs will surely make their way onto plenty of playoff and championship rosters.
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Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Williams was a fifth-round pick in 2022. He had a fantastic sophomore season, finishing with 1,350 scrimmage yards in just 12 games. However, we’ve seen James Robinson get replaced by Travis Etienne after 1,414 scrimmage yards as a rookie. Bijan Robinson also replaced Tyler Allgeier after he had 1,174 scrimmage yards as a rookie. The point is, when you’re a former Day 3 pick or undrafted free agent, there’s no guarantee your role is secure, no matter how good you played.
Williams’ stranglehold on the Rams backfield is secure through the first and second wave of free agency. They have not signed a single running back and have just Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans behind him on the depth chart. That is a major win.
According to PFF, the Rams finished with the 14th-best offensive line. However, two of their starters -- Coleman Shelton and Kevin Dotson -- were free agents. Dotson finished with an 88.5 run-blocking grade, the highest score of any guard, per PFF. Losing one, especially Dotson or both, would have a strong negative impact on the unit’s run blocking in 2024, hurting Williams’ chances for a repeat season.
Kyren Williams 📈📈📈
If Steve Avila moves to center, the Rams' interior OL will be massive:
Jonah Jackson: 6'4", 311
Avila: 6'3", 332
Kevin Dotson: 6'4", 321 https://t.co/M2oP18AUg7— Ian Valentino (@NFLDraftStudy) March 11, 2024
The Rams opened up their checkbook this offseason, re-signing Dotson to a three-year extension worth $48 million and including $32 million. They weren’t done there, though! They also signed former Detroit Lion and former Pro Bowl guard Jonah Jackson to a three-year deal worth $51 million, including $34 million in guarantees. Last year’s left guard, Steve Avila, will shift to center, replacing Shelton, while Jackson will replace Avila at left guard.
There were concerns that the Rams offensive line could take a big hit this offseason, but the unit got better in the end. Jackson is a far superior player to Shelton, and keeping Dotson in Los Angeles is huge. Williams is fully entrenched as the workhorse back in head coach Sean McVay’s offense and will run behind an improved offensive line. There’s a good chance he will repeat as a top-five running back this season.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White played over 78% of the team’s snaps last year, an absurd amount in today’s NFL. While almost every team uses a committee approach to its backfield, White was a true mainstay. He rarely ever left the field. His heavy snap count led to 336 touches and 1,539 scrimmage yards. He finished second in overall touches to only Christian McCaffrey, who had 339. He also finished fourth in scrimmage yards among running backs.
While no one reasonably expected White to be replaced, it seemed reasonable to expect Tampa Bay to add more competition and talent to its running back position to help alleviate the heavy workload it asked White to carry last season. Through free agency thus far, they’ve only re-signed Chase Edmonds. They also return 2022 undrafted free agent, Sean Tucker. That completes their running back depth chart as of today.
Last season, Edmonds played just 14% of the snaps, and Tucker played 3%. They combined for 64 carries and 199 rushing yards. They also collectively had 19 targets, 16 receptions, and 90 receiving yards. As it stands right now, it appears that Tampa Bay is fully prepared to run back its running back rotation from last season. Its depth chart is status quo, which puts White in the driver’s seat for another heavy workload. That’s great because at running back, volume is king.
Tampa Bay's re-signing of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans also deserves a mention. The trio of Mayfield, White, and Evans was the driving force behind Tampa Bay’s offense. Losing just one of them could have seriously impacted its efficiency. However, with both back in the fold, the Tampa Bay offense remains mostly unchanged from last season. This gives White a great opportunity to repeat as a top-10 running back for 2024.
Zack Moss and Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati trading Joe Mixon to the Texans leaves a huge void in the Bengals backfield. Last season, Mixon had 257 carries. Of those 257 carries, 56 were red-zone carries, the third most. 38 were inside the 10-yard line, the most in the NFL, and 18 were inside the 5-yard line, the third most. That’s a ton of volume and high-value touches currently up for grabs.
Since 2022, Mixon has had 139 targets. That is the fourth most among running backs. He also has 112 receptions and 817 receiving yards over the past two seasons, which are the fifth highest. Mixon’s role as the lead back for the Bengals has been one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in the NFL. Mixon’s talent wasn’t able to be fully put on display, but in terms of high-value touches, few players have gotten as many of them as Mixon has the past two seasons. That alone makes Moss and Brown huge offseason winners.
It’s certainly possible that the Bengals will draft a running back in this year’s NFL Draft, but they also have other holes to fill. Tee Higgins is on the franchise tag, has no long-term deal, and could be traded. They have to fill Tyler Boyd’s hole in the offense. Left guard, center, and tight end could all use upgrades. Their starting lineup on defense is pretty well set, but there’s no guarantee the Bengals draft a running back early enough who threatens Moss or Brown.
The most likely outcome is that Moss works as the early-down grinder and short-yardage running back. Brown would then operate as the primary pass-catching, long down and distance, and two-minute warning back. However, Moss is entering his fifth year and has just one season with more than 500 rushing yards and 115 carries. Brown was a rookie last season who played in 12 games and finished with 335 yards.
What that should tell you is neither player is guaranteed anything, making both big-time winners. While we should expect a committee approach based on the roles distinguished above, either player can work themselves into the No.1 job if their play allows them to, and that’s exciting for fantasy managers!
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley is another running back whose fantasy football value has significantly increased this offseason. Going from the Giants offensive line to the Eagles offensive line is like going from throwing to Darius Slayton to A.J. Brown. Per PFF’s final 2023 offensive line rankings, the Eagles were the best. The Giants finished 30th.
The Eagles will need to replace Jason Kelce, which is a big loss, but all four offensive line starters will return in 2024. It will once again be a top-five unit. That’s not the only place where the Eagles have a distinct advantage; check out the table below.
| Team Statistics | Eagles | Giants |
| Total Yards Per Game | 354.4 | 280 |
| Points Scored Per Game | 25.5 | 15.6 |
| Scoring Percentage | 42.9% | 23.6% |
| Rushing Yards Per Game by RBs | 90.11 | 69.58 |
| Rush Attempts Per Game by RBs | 20.2 | 19.4 |
| Yards Before Contact Per Carry by RBs | 2.66 | 1.81 |
| Yards Per Carry by RBs | 4.45 | 3.58 |
| Red Zone Trips | 60 | 43 |
| Red Zone TD Scoring Rate | 60.0% | 44.2% |
| Points Per Drive | 2.33 | 1.21 |
| Third-Down Conversion Rate | 48.0% | 30.2% |
The offensive talent in Philadelphia embarrasses that of the Giants. It’s not even close, and the table above depicts just how substantial that talent gap is. Fantasy managers will want to pay close attention to the rushing yards per game, yards before contact per carry average, yards per carry average, and the scoring stats.
Barkley is going to be immensely more efficient in 2024, and he’s going to have a whole lot more scoring opportunities. I know many people are probably worried about Jalen Hurts vulturing a bunch of scores, but those concerns are exaggerated.
Remember, in 2022, Miles Sanders had 12 rushing touchdowns in Philadelphia, tied for the fifth most in the NFL. From 2022-2023, I looked at just the number of red-zone carries, carries inside the 10-yard line, and carries inside the 5-yard line that went to Philadelphia running backs, and it should put the concerns around Hurts getting all the touchdowns to rest.
| Two-Year All Philly RBs Average | Would Be 2023 Rank | Two-Year Lead Philly RB Average | Would Be 2023 Rank | |
| Red-Zone Carries | 65.5 | 1st | 40 | 9th |
| Inside 10-Yard Line | 40.5 | 1st | 26.5 | 9th |
| Inside 5-Yard Line | 17 | 4th | 10.5 | 13th |
From the table above, you can see the two-year average of red-zone carries, carries inside the 10-yard line, and the 5-yard line for all Philly running backs and the lead back, and where those numbers would’ve ranked last year amongst running backs.
Barkley will not get all of the running back red-zone carries for Philadelphia, but based on talent, it’s reasonable to expect him to get a bigger percentage than Sanders and D'Andre Swift did, right? Assuming that, it’s not out of the question Barkley finishes in the top five among running backs in red-zone carries and carries inside the 10-yard line and top 10 in carries inside the 5-yard line.
Minnesota Vikings Rookie Quarterback
The Vikings are not in a position to draft one of the top-four quarterbacks yet. However, only Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall are signed at quarterback. They currently have picks 11 and 23 in the first round, and it seems the Vikings will be aggressive in acquiring their future quarterback.
It seems like a foregone conclusion that picks 1-3 will be quarterback, with New England being the lone possibility of trading down. Arizona desperately needs a receiver, and it seems difficult to imagine them trading out of that spot, which puts the attention on the Chargers at five.
Looking at the teams who need a quarterback brings you to the Giants at six, the Vikings at 11, the Broncos at 12, and the Raiders at 13. Trading down one spot with the Giants will not net the Chargers an ample return. It seems unlikely the Chargers will want to trade with either divisional rival Denver or Las Vegas and help them acquire their franchise quarterback. That leaves Minnesota and their two first-round picks. Assuming this is how it plays out, whoever that quarterback is will be a major offseason winner.
Per PFF’s final 2023 offensive line rankings, the Vikings finished 12th. They employ one of the best tackle duos in the NFL, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. They also have a quality center in Garrett Bradbury and a guard in Ed Ingram. The Vikings also significantly upgraded their running back room with the addition of longtime Packer Aaron Jones. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Vikings will have a strong offensive line ahead of them and a strong running game supporting them.
We haven’t even gotten to the best part yet: their pass-catchers. Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the world right now. Jordan Addison is coming off a rookie season where he finished with 108 targets, 70 receptions, 911 yards, and 10 touchdowns as a rookie despite Kirk Cousins missing nine games. He’ll also have T.J. Hockenson at his disposal, coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 125 targets, 85 receptions, and 900 yards. He’s recovering from a torn ACL but should be ready by mid-season.
On top of that, head coach Kevin O'Connell is one of the best in the business. He got a 29-year-old and former undrafted quarterback, Nick Mullens, to throw for 303, 411, and 396 yards in his three starts following Cousins' injury. He also threw six total touchdowns. Cousins was also on pace to have the best season of his career before his season-ending injury.
Whoever the Vikings draft at quarterback, they'll be supported in every facet. He'll have a strong offensive line and running game. He'll also have excellent coaching and one of the best trios of pass-catchers in the NFL. That is absolutely a wheels-up type of situation.
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