2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

March 27, 2024

Rob evaluates the biggest NFL free-agency transactions and identifies the biggest fantasy football winners for the 2024 NFL season. This is the first entry in a three-part edition.

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real beginning of the fantasy football ranking season. With most of the biggest names already on new clubs, fantasy managers can begin deciphering how these transactions impact each player and their new teammates' fantasy value.

In this three-part series, we'll identify 18 players whose fantasy football values have increased since free agency due in part to their direct movement or the movement of the players around them. Correctly recognizing who these players are and properly assessing their change in value can help fantasy managers in their upcoming fantasy football drafts.

For the series' first entry, we'll focus on six of the biggest names whose fantasy football values increased the most due to the changes during the free-agency period. The 2024 NFL Draft is the next offseason event that can greatly impact fantasy football values, but now, let's focus on some of this year's biggest offseason winners.

Caleb Williams, Rookie

Following Williams' pro day, he said, "I've known Keenan Allen for a little bit now; we hung out. He was at the Chargers... Now, he's at the Bears. He's here for a fourth-round pick..."

Was that intentional? Probably not. However, every NFL reporter under the sun since February has been saying the Bears intend to take Williams with the top overall pick. The fact that Adam Schefter, Ian Rapoport, etc. have all stated this since the offseason started and haven't wavered is telling.

Now that Justin Fields has officially been traded, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Williams will be a Chicago Bear. While some will say the Bears have never had a good quarterback, does that matter? There's a new general manager, head coach, and offensive coordinator. Believing the failures of Jay Cutler, Mitch Trubisky, and Justin Fields will have any impact on Williams' success is foolish. If we're being honest, Williams is walking into arguably the best situation any first overall quarterback has ever walked into.

The team acquired D.J. Moore last year. From 2019-2021, Moore had three straight seasons of 1,150+ receiving yards with quarterbacks Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Cam Newton, and Sam Darnold. He had seasons of 18.5 yards per reception and 12.4 yards per reception, proving he can win in many ways. Last year, he had 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns, officially taking his game to a new level.

This offseason, Chicago traded for Keenan Allen. Last year, he had 108 receptions and 1,243 yards in just 13 games. From 2017-2021, Allen averaged more than 100 receptions a season. Together, these two make up one of the best receiver duos in the NFL. Not only that, but how they win perfectly complements each other. Moore destroys man-to-man coverage while Allen terrorizes the zone.

TREMENDOUS pairing for the Bears WRs now

vs man coverage last yr (yds/route)?

DJ Moore: #4
Keenan Allen: #30

vs zone coverage?

DJ Moore: #34
Keenan Allen: #10

lining up?

Moore: 81% out wide, 19% slot
Allen: 41% out wide, 59% slot

READ FOR MORE:https://t.co/fD6mUcGDzY

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 15, 2024

PFF ranked Chicago's offensive line as the 18th-best unit last year. However, left tackle Braxton Jones missed six games, and starting guards Nate Davis and Teven Jenkins missed six and five games, respectively. Between those three and 2023 first-rounder Darnell Wright, the Bears should have an above-average offensive line in 2024. They added Coleman Shelton, who was starting at center for the Rams last year and traded for versatile backup Ryan Bates from Buffalo. This offensive line could flirt with a top-10 ranking entering the 2024 season.

Williams will have a quality offensive line in front of him and two great receivers, but there's more! Chicago also signed RB D'Andre Swift with returnees Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. This backfield is a versatile group, including Swift, one of the better pass-catching running backs in the NFL.

A tight end tandem of Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett is also a quality duo. The Bears have the ninth overall pick and could select Rome Odunze if he falls. Even if they don't, they are likely to draft a receiver in the third or fourth round, adding to the number of weapons Williams will have at his disposal. Believe it or not, Williams is set up to have the best season of any quarterback in Chicago history, and it could result in a top-12 fantasy finish as a rookie.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Jacobs is one of the offseason's biggest fantasy football winners. His initial signing with the Green Bay Packers caught everyone by surprise. However, it made much more sense once the Packers cut longtime starter Aaron Jones. Jacobs is several years younger than Jones and led the league in rushing two seasons ago.

Going from the Raiders to the Packers is a massive upgrade. Last season, the Packers finished with 5,873 total scrimmage yards compared to the Raiders' 4,922. The Packers scored 383 points compared to the Raiders at 332. With Jordan Love entering his second season as the starter and the expected growth from the league's youngest group of pass-catchers, it's reasonable to expect the Packers offense to be even better in 2024. The Packers finished with 1,905 rushing yards compared to just 1,542 for the Raiders.

From 2019-2023, Matt LaFleur was the Packers head coach. During this time, the Packers running backs have averaged 381 carries, 1,730 rushing yards, and 11 touchdowns. They also averaged 113 targets, 87 receptions, 681 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.

A.J. Dillon is the primary backup running back on the Packers' depth chart, and he isn’t much of a threat. If Jacobs were to finish with 60% of those numbers, he'd finish with 1,447 scrimmage yards, nine touchdowns, 68 targets, and 52 receptions. With how poorly Dillon played last season, could Jacobs have a 65% share of the backfield work? Jacobs could be expected to finish with around 1,567 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns, 73 targets, and 57 receptions if he did.

I’m convinced Josh Jacobs returns to RB1 status in GB.

Former RD1 pick.

Has hit or paced for 300+ carries in back-to-back seasons; has never been below a pace of 245+ carries.

Is a better receiver than AJ Dillon (has posted 1.00+ YPRR every season of his career).

& goes from… pic.twitter.com/nrn5tIBp6N

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) March 20, 2024

The Raiders offensive line finished 10th, according to PFF's final 2023 rankings, and the Packers offensive line finished 11th. However, the Raiders have since lost their starting right guard, Greg Van Roten, and their starting right tackle, Jermaine Eluemunor.

The Packers, on the other hand, will return four of their starters from last season. Green Bay should be expected to have a better offensive line in 2024. On top of that, there is nothing that Dillon does better than Jacobs. He should be expected to operate as Green Bay's primary running back in all facets. The Packers should finish as a top-10 offense, giving Jacobs plenty of scoring opportunities. Fantasy managers should value Jacobs as a top-10 running back for the 2024 season.

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pickens had a breakout season last season. Unfortunately, due to Kenny Pickett's play under center, fantasy managers couldn't fully capitalize on Pickens' improved play. However, when you look at some of Pickett's advanced metrics, it becomes clear just how well Pickens played last season and how high his ceiling could be with more competent quarterback play. You can see just how effective and efficient he was last season below out of receivers with at least 50 targets:

• 18th in Air Yards
• 15th in Air Yards Share
• 16th in Receiving Yards
• 16th in Unrealized Air Yards
• 17th in Yards Per Route Run
• 3rd in Yards Per Target
• 7th in Yards After the Catch Per Reception
• 6th Lowest Drop Rate
• 1st in Yards Per Reception
• 11th in Yards Per Team Pass Attempt

The difference between Pickett's 2023 play and Russell Wilson's 2023 play was significant. Considering just how impressive Pickens was last year with Pickett, it's easy to see why Pickens is a major offseason winner with the quarterback change in Pittsburgh. Below, you'll find a comparison of statistics between Wilson and Pickett.

If that were the only thing that happened in Pittsburgh, Pickens would be a major winner. However, Pittsburgh also traded Diontae Johnson to the Panthers. Below, you'll find the difference in Pickens' per-game stats in the four games in which Johnson was not active compared to the 13 games in which he was.

Pickens' targets per game increased from 5.69 with Johnson in the lineup to 8.25 with him out. Over 17 games, that's a difference of 43 targets. His half-PPR PPG also increased from 9.19 with Johnson to 14.45 without Johnson. And that was with Pickett at quarterback! Imagine what happens with Wilson, who has his faults but is significantly better than Pickett, as evidenced above.

Pickens has the potential to finish as a top-12 receiver at the end of the 2024 season. If that comes to pass, we'll be able to look at the statistics above as to why we should have all seen that coming. Pickens is still routinely ranked as a backend WR2, making him one of the best values in fantasy football right now.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

Henry is another player whose fantasy value increased significantly this offseason. The Titans were one of the worst offenses in the NFL last year, whereas the Ravens were one of the best. The Ravens recorded 6,296 scrimmage yards. The Titans were at just 4,913. The Ravens scored 483 points, and the Titans had just 305.

Baltimore also finished with 10 more rushing touchdowns than the Titans. Based on PFF's final 2023 offensive line rankings, Baltimore finished fifth. The Titans, meanwhile, were dead last. Henry has been stuck running behind one of the worst offensive lines for the past two seasons.

Yards before contact per rush:
(only including RB rushes, no QB rushes)

2023
1.56 -- Baltimore Ravens (3rd)
1.03 -- Tennessee Titans (25th)

2022
1.23 -- Ravens (24th)
0.68 -- Titans (31st)

Even in a "down year" in 2023, Derrick Henry ranked 8th among 49 qualified RBs in yards…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) March 12, 2024

Henry is in a much better environment with the upgrade along the offensive line, quarterback, and overall offensive structure. Despite the circumstances working against him in Tennessee, Henry still finished eighth in breakaway run rate, ninth in yards after contact per attempt, and 12th in broken tackles per attempt among running backs with at least 150 carries.

Fantasy managers might think Henry had a "down" season, or maybe he's starting to decline, but the advanced metrics do not show that. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if Henry finishes top five in carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns in 2024. He should be ranked as a top-10 running back for 2024, and it's not out of the question that he finishes in the top five. If Gus Edwards could have 13 rushing touchdowns last year, how many could Henry have?

Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

London and Pitts are two other huge offseason winners in many different ways. First, Atlanta made the smart decision to let go of Arthur Smith. He routinely ran a perplexing offense that did not always feature their best players. That was especially true for Pitts.

Atlanta hired Raheem Morris as their new head coach, and Zac Robinson was hired as his offensive coordinator. Robinson has been on the Rams offensive staff since 2019 under Sean McVay. From 2022-2023, Robinson was the Rams quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator.

During that time, quarterback Matthew Stafford averaged 35 pass attempts per game, and they used 11-personnel on over 90% of their offensive plays. That offensive shift will pay dividends for Atlanta's passing offense. The coaching change is a massive upgrade for London and Pitts, but it's nothing compared to the acquisition of Kirk Cousins and the upgrade at quarterback.

Below, you'll see the comparison between Cousins and Desmond Ridder this past season and Marcus Mariota from his time with the Falcons in 2022.

London will operate as Atlanta's top receiver in 2024, and fantasy managers should view him as a top-12 receiver with the quarterback and coaching changes.

Atlanta has since signed Darnell Mooney, a quality third pass-catcher, but his signing is great for Pitts. Assuming the Falcons do not draft a receiver at No. 8 overall in the NFL Draft, Pitts should be Atlanta's second pass-catcher and target earner for the 2024 season. London has the potential to be a WR1 for the year, and Pitts has the potential to be a top-five tight end this year.

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