2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

Rob evaluates the biggest NFL free-agency transactions and identifies the biggest fantasy football winners for the 2024 NFL season. This is the second entry in a three-part edition.

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a new team, but it can also happen indirectly. This could include a player's team signing new teammates or a new coach who is likely to help improve a player's effectiveness and efficiency.

Our first entry to this article featured six players -- Caleb Williams, Josh Jacobs, George Pickens, Derrick Henry, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts -- whose fantasy football values have increased significantly this offseason. You can find that article here. We'll again focus on six players for our second entry here before wrapping up this series edition with our third and final entry with six more players. Identifying these trends early can help fantasy managers capitalize on changing values.

Most of the biggest names have since signed, and there likely won't be any big changes to fantasy football rankings until the NFL Draft, which is the final big offseason date that can impact fantasy football rankings. Two big names could be traded still -- Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins -- and such a transaction would create plenty of winners and losers. For now, we'll discuss one quarterback, running back, three receivers, and one tight end in this edition.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Breece Hall, New York Jets

We all know that Aaron Rodgers will be back under center in 2024. The last time we saw Rodgers in 2022, he completed 64.6% of his passes, averaged 217 passing yards per game, and had a 91.1 quarterback rating. He had a 4.8% touchdown rate and a 5.6% sack rate. His on-target rate was 80.6%, and his off-target rate was 14.8%. From 2022-2023, Zach Wilson completed just 57.9% of his passes, averaged 188.5 passing yards per game, and had a 75.5 quarterback rating. He had a 2.3% touchdown rate and a 10.2% sack rate. His on-target rate was 73.4%, and his off-target rate was 19.4%.

The quarterback upgrade will be massive for Hall and the entire offense. Rodgers will increase New York's scoring rate, drive length, number of plays, and offensive efficiency. He will also require defenses to pay more attention to its passing attack. The Jets finished 29th in yards and 31st in points scored, but it shouldn't be surprising if New York finishes between 15-20 in 2024. That'll mean a lot more scoring opportunities for Hall.

Getting Rodgers back under center is just one piece, albeit a big one. This offseason, the Jets have replaced left tackle Mekhi Becton with Tyron Smith. They've also replaced Laken Tomlinson with John Simpson at left guard. The Jets used Max Mitchell, Carter Warren, and Billy Turner at right tackle. In 2024, that spot will be filled by Morgan Moses.

These offensive line upgrades cannot be overstated. They are massive. Per PFF, the Jets offensive line ranked 31st for the 2023 season. They've made significant upgrades at left tackle, left guard, and right tackle. As long as their primary starters stay healthy, they should be much closer to the league average. Below, you can compare the Jets' 2023 starters vs. who they will be starting this upcoming season.

Hall had 24.7% of his rush attempts "stuffed," which resulted in zero or negative yards. This was the fourth highest among running backs this past season. With the new offseason additions, Hall should find more room to run. The Jets also signed Mike Williams, who, when healthy, has been one of the league's better deep ball threats. He has a 15.6 yards per reception average.

With Rodgers healthy and Williams on the outside, the Jets can legitimately threaten the opposing downfield. This is something they were unable to do last season. This new development should lead to lighter boxes for Hall in 2024.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers

There are legitimate concerns with Bryce Young, who will now throw the football to Johnson. However, he's coming from Pittsburgh where he caught passes from Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, so how much worse could it get? However, it is important to note that Young was a rookie last season, throwing to 33-year-old Adam Thielen, second-round bust Jonathan Mingo, and journeyman D.J. Chark. Per PFF, the Panthers also finished with the 29th-ranked offensive line in 2023.

Young was the ninth-most pressured quarterback at 24.2%. Considering his environment, which lacked support, how much Young struggled is reasonable. Carolina signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis this offseason, guaranteeing them a combined $89.2 million. That level of investment should greatly improve their offensive line. They also hired Dave Canales, the offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers last season.

Canales helped revitalize Baker Mayfield's career last season. Mayfield had the best season of his career after two of his worst seasons in 2021-2022. Before 2023, Mayfield had essentially been left for dead, and Canales, as offensive coordinator, got the best out of him. He was also the quarterbacks coach in 2022 with the Seahawks. That was the year when Geno Smith had the best season of his career. Before 2022, Smith had spent six consecutive seasons as a backup before making the Pro Bowl in that year. After revitalizing the careers of Smith and Mayfield, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the former first overall pick.

Last season, Thielen finished with 137 targets, 103 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns. He finished as the WR25 in half-PPR PPG at 11.1. If Thielen could do that at 33 with a terrible offensive line, an in-season coaching change, and the rookie version of Young, what should fantasy managers expect from Johnson in 2024?

Johnson is, without a question, a better receiver than Thielen at this stage of their respective careers. Johnson will operate as the Panthers' undisputed No. 1 receiver, and it shouldn't be surprising that he will eclipse 150 targets this season.

NEW #ReceptionProfile on Panthers WR Diontae Johnson is live on the site.

- 75.2% success rate vs man coverage (81st percentile)
- 82.3% success rate vs zone (82nd)
- 78.3% success rate vs press (85th)

While not a flawless player, what Diontae Johnson does well...he does… pic.twitter.com/lJSECia92u

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 19, 2024

From his 2024 Reception Perception Profile, Matt Harmon had this to say about the Panthers receivers from last season and how Johnson will fit in this upcoming season:

"The Panthers wide receivers were the worst unit in the league at creating separation, especially on the outside. Reception Perception subscribers knew that would happen given D.J. Chark’s 2022 success rates and Jonathan Mingo’s profile as a big-slot-only prospect. The entire unit suffered as a result. Bryce Young’s Year 1 development was doomed before it began. Now, the Panthers are about to welcome one of the NFL’s best separators. Diontae Johnson’s success rates from 2023 were just further confirmation of that fact. With a 75.2% score in 2023, Johnson has hit or cleared 75% success rate vs. man coverage in all five of his NFL seasons. He’s been a top-two finisher multiple seasons in success rate vs. zone coverage and turned in another sterling mark last year. His 78.3% success rate vs. press coverage was the second-best mark of his career. This player remains at the top of the league in terms of getting open."

Even with George Pickens' emergence this past season, Johnson still registered a 23.5% target share and a 24.7% target per route run. In 2022, when Pickens was still a rookie, Johnson posted a 27.0% target share and a 26.3% targets per route run rate. He had a 28.5% target share and targets per route run rate in 2021. This is one of the best target-earners and separators in the NFL, and he's now on a team desperate for a top receiver.

It would've been difficult for Johnson to finish as a top-24 receiver in Pittsburgh with Pickens and the suspect quarterback play. In Carolina, with 150 targets completely in reach, Johnson has top-20 potential. If Canales can help Young as he helped Mayfield and Smith, who knows... maybe Johnson could even flirt with a top-12 finish.

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kirk became a big winner when Calvin Ridley announced that he'd be signing with the Tennessee Titans. His decision cemented Kirk's status as Jacksonville's WR1 for the 2024 season. There have been rumors that the Jaguars have had trade talks about Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk, but they're mostly rumors now. Given the state of Jacksonville's depth chart at receiver, fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if they add a receiver in the first or second round of the NFL Draft. But as of right now, Kirk is in a great spot.

In 2022, before Ridley arrived in Jacksonville, Kirk posted career highs in target share (23.2%), target rate per route run (25.7%), targets (133), receptions (84), yards (1,108), and touchdowns (eight). He averaged 7.82 targets per game that season and 11.3 half-PPR PPG. With Ridley on the field this past season, Kirk's target share and targets per route run rate fell to 20.8% and 22.9%, respectively. His targets per game also decreased to 7.08, and his half-PPR PPG average fell to 10.1.

Obviously, Christian Kirk is a big winner of free agency. Jaguars with a better OL & less target competition.

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) March 13, 2024

Before Ridley spurned Jacksonville, they signed Gabriel Davis from Buffalo. Davis has just one season with a target share north of 15% and has never had a target share higher than 18.5%. Davis is your prototypical X receiver who won't earn a lot of targets and is primarily there to do the dirty work for the offense. He'll run block and keep defenses honest, holding safeties deep with his speed and downfield game. That'll help open Kirk up underneath and will lock Kirk in as one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets this upcoming season.

Kirk is still best viewed as a WR3, but he has top-24 upside right now. That's a big upgrade from where he was viewed with the expectation that Ridley would return to Jacksonville.

Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs

Brown signed with the Chiefs this offseason after spending the past two seasons in Arizona. He'll now slot in as Kansas City's third target behind Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. That's a great spot for Hollywood. Arizona asked Brown to be something he isn't, a true WR1. Rice had just a 4.8 average target depth, and Kelce had a 6.7 average. From 2018-2020, Patrick Mahomes had an 8.74 intended air yards per attempt average. From 2021-2023, that dropped to just 7.03.

The Chiefs need a true downfield weapon who can win. That's something Brown can do. From his 2024 Reception Perception Profile, Matt Harmon had this to say about Hollywood:

"Brown is really quite a strong separator on intermediate routes against zone coverage. His dig, curl and out route success rates are annually among his best results. He can even rip through the heart of a defense on post routes, that’s where he’s best used as a vertical receiver. Those are valuable routes that could be really useful for a team that wants to take shots of play action and has the flexibility to move Brown off the line. Overall, Brown clearly has some strengths as a player and does genuinely shine as a separator against zone coverage in the critical intermediate areas. That combined with his speed will provide a tantalizing proposition at a position where essentially every team needs to add options. He has his place in a good receiver room. However, I think he’s been in the league long enough that we understand his strengths and weaknesses as a player. It’ll be up to his future employers to line him up in ways and assign him duties that mask those flaws and allow the good notes to sing."

Focusing on that last sentence, fantasy managers should have every confidence that head coach Andy Reid will utilize Brown in a way that features what he does best. That is not something Arizona did for Brown. In Brown's Reception Perception profile, Matt Harmon stated, "Brown took just 16.2% of his sampled snaps from the slot and was on the line for 77.4% of his sampled snaps. That is simply way too much X-receiver work for a player of Brown’s size and abilities."

His target share will decrease in Kansas City, but the difference in team volume should help offset that. Kansas City attempted 37.3 pass attempts per game last year, while Arizona averaged 32.6. Brown would need a 19.9% target share in Arizona to finish with 110 targets, while in Kansas City, he'd only need a 17.3% target share to reach 110 targets. Kansas City also averaged 63.7 more passing yards and had 10 more total passing touchdowns. Kelce seemed to take a step back last season, and he'll be 35 for most of the 2024 season.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

While most expected the Titans to rebuild, they've taken a "reload" approach. They've given out big money to Calvin Ridley and Lloyd Cushenberry III. They also signed Kenneth Murray Jr., Tony Pollard, and Chidobe Awuzie, but they weren't done. They also traded for L'Jarius Sneed and gave him a big contract.

Some may say they're getting too far ahead of themselves, but after watching the Jets, Bears, and Patriots fail to put a quality supporting cast around Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones, respectively, you must admire what Tennessee is doing. They are eliminating every reason Levis could fail. They're setting him up for success.

The Titans hired Brian Callahan as head coach. He was offensive coordinator with the Bengals for the past five years. Cincinnati has finished in the top seven in pass attempts in three of those five years, one of which came in 2019 with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Callahan helped support Joe Burrow's superstardom and helped Jake Browning's quality play this past season when Burrow was hurt. Callahan is an offensive-minded coach who should help Levis's development, along with the offseason additions, most notably Calvin Ridley.

Tennessee returns its No. 1 and No. 2 pass-catchers, DeAndre Hopkins and Chigoziem Okonkwo. The team's third target-earner was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. With Ridley on the squad for 2024, Okonkwo will certainly slide down to third or fourth. With the acquisition of Ridley, former 2021 first-round pick Treylon Burks can operate as the team's slot receiver, which is his ideal position. Hopkins will likely operate as the team's X, Ridley will be the flanker, and Burks will be the slot receiver. This movement should help Burks be more effective and efficient, and the difference between Ridley and Westbrook-Ikhine is substantial.

Below, you'll see Ridley's 2023 stats side-by-side with Westbrook-Ikhine.

That is a massive upgrade to Levis's second target. The trio of Hopkins, Ridley, and Burks gives the QB a quality assortment of pass-catchers to lean on. Hopkins and Ridley proved last year that they're still very capable receivers. It's a solid 1-2 punch.

Hiring an offensive-minded coach could also be big for Levis's development. Tennessee is doing everything it can to support Levis and make him successful. Look for the Titans to select their future left tackle with the seventh pick in this year's NFL Draft, which will help solidify their offensive line. If Levis has a breakout second season, the Titans' offseason moves will be a big reason why.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

The acquisition of Russell Wilson and the Diontae Johnson trade are major positives for Freiermuth's fantasy football value. Just one of these moves would have Freiermuth with a top-15 tight end ranking, but both of them should have him on the verge of being a top-12 tight end for the 2024 season.

Freiermuth should be ranked ahead of Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Dalton Schultz, and Luke Musgrave. He should be grouped with Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid. Let's talk about why that is starting with the change at quarterback.

Wilson has his faults. That said, he is significantly better than Kenny Pickett. Looking back at the skilled players each quarterback had at their disposal, it's clear that Pickett was working with far better talent. Najee Harris was better than Javonte Williams. Jaylen Warren was far better than Samaje Perine. George Pickens was much better than Courtland Sutton. Diontae Johnson had a better season than Jerry Jeudy.

Denver's passing offense operated without a tight end all year; that's how bad Adam Trautman was. Despite this, Denver averaged 3.1 more points per game. The Broncos scored on 34.9% of their possessions compared to 29.9% for Pittsburgh. Denver averaged 1.81 points per game, and Pittsburgh averaged only 1.49. A lot can be attributed to the play of each team's respective quarterbacks.

Those are major upgrades, but Johnson being traded to the Panthers also means Freiermuth will move back into the second passing option in their offense. Freiermuth was injured for most of the 2023 season and only had three games with a snap share of over 70%. He had 10 such games in 2022. Due to his injury-ravaged 2023 season, fantasy managers will likely have forgotten how good he was in 2022.

Pickens was still a rookie that season, and Freiermuth posted a higher target share and target rate than Pickens. Back in 2022, you'll find where Freiermuth ranked among tight ends in several advanced statistics below:

• 5th in total targets (98)
• 9th in target share (19.0%)
• 7th in target rate (24.9%)
• 4th in air yards (849)
• 8th in air yard share (18.4%)
• 6th in receptions (63)
• 6th in receiving yards (732)
• 7th in yards per route run (1.86)
• 8th in average depth of target (8.7)
• 13th in yards per reception (11.6)
• 9th in yards per team pass attempt (1.35)
• 9th in half-PPR PPG (9.3)

Those numbers are amazing! In 2022, Johnson operated as the top target-earner for Pittsburgh. Freiermuth was second and George Pickens was third. Looking at Pittsburgh's depth chart right now, Pickens will be the WR1, Freiermuth will be back in the second hole, and Van Jefferson will be the third.

The rookie version of Pickens is substantially better than Jefferson. They may yet look to improve the receiver spot opposite Pickens, but Freiermuth's role in Pittsburgh's offense looks very secure right now. If he gets the volume and opportunity he saw in 2022 with the improved quarterback play, Freiermuth could flirt with top-10 status. He's a major offseason winner.

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